Rupp, Derrick, Ritz or True – Which One Goes Home Devastated?

if the race goes out at 14 flat for the first 5k, you can expect ritz to up the pace and hammer several labs at 63. if rupp is feeling ok, he'll chip in and share the lead with ritz and make the field hurt.

it figures that derrick and true are dropped by the bell lap.

rupp lays down a 55 second last lap, ritz a 59 and true comes alive after being dropped to score 3rd.

I see Ritz and True leading and pushing the pace with 2-3k to go. Rupp will be back in the pack. He's not all about helping Ritz; he's more about helping himself. He's confident now that he can out kick all these guys and will throw down a 56 or so last 400 to win. Once you start becoming confident in your kick as Rupp has finally become, you start hanging back a little more. There will be a war for the W between Rupp and True. Final: Rupp (by less than a second), True, Ritz.

Good assessment;

I agree Rupp is a lock. Off of a slow pace Derrick and Ritz clearly have the weakest closing speed of the 4 and it may be to their benefit to crank it, make it real honest from the start, especially given their fitness - I'm betting on something in the 27:10 to 15 range with True dropping off over final 300M or so.

13:45 first 5K, 13:30 or just under coming home...

NOAA foreccast for race time: 80 degrees, 67% rel. humidity, 68% dewpoint. No way the race is faster than 27:50, and hard to see it under 28.

Bekele Fan wrote:

Good assessment;

I agree Rupp is a lock. Off of a slow pace Derrick and Ritz clearly have the weakest closing speed of the 4 and it may be to their benefit to crank it, make it real honest from the start, especially given their fitness - I'm betting on something in the 27:10 to 15 range with True dropping off over final 300M or so.

13:45 first 5K, 13:30 or just under coming home...

Bekele Fan wrote:

13:45 first 5K, 13:30 or just under coming home...

So you think Ritz will PR by ~10s? Derrick will PR by ~20s? True will PR by close to 30s !?! in a championship race?

Ritz running 20s faster than last year (when he needed the A) in worse conditions in Des Moines? Not gonna happen. This race will be won in high 27s...with maybe a 13:30-40 last 5k.

Rupp, Ritz and True/Derrick kicking together for the last spot. Think Derrick gets it. This will likely be the most exciting race of the meet.

simplifies things wrote:

agreed, and the cool thing about this is we'll know in the first 3k if ritz/rupp are going to force it into the kind of race ritz can succeed, or if he's just on his own (and screwed).

I don't know if we'll know for sure by 5k. We've all been talking about the race as either fast or slow, but I think another scenario that could work for Ritz is to the Abby D'Agostino squeeze over the last 2 miles or so. It doesn't require a blazing last lap, and Ritz might be strong enough to just pick up the pace a little bit more with each successive lap. Even if the first half is slow, Ritz could make Derrick and True hurt a lot by the bell with that strategy.

monty says the dewpoint will be 68 - that is getting close to the brutal range - really a disappointment.

I suspect the heat will take out one of the top 4 at midway and so the end of the race may not be as exciting as we think.

Bekele Fan wrote:

13:45 first 5K, 13:30 or just under coming home...

bubbadeeboo wrote:

So you think Ritz will PR by ~10s? Derrick will PR by ~20s? True will PR by close to 30s !?! in a championship race?

Ritz running 20s faster than last year (when he needed the A) in worse conditions in Des Moines? Not gonna happen. This race will be won in high 27s...with maybe a 13:30-40 last 5k.

+1. WTF kind of analysis was that? 27:15? Almost as dumb as Ventolin thinking the Olympics would be sub 26:30 last year.

Almost.

For the record, Ritz ran 2:11:07 at the 2008 Olympic Marathon trials and followed that up with 2:11:59 in the Beijing heat & humidity. He ran extremely well in the heat.

I think that is why people say -- "We know Ritz can run in the heat."

Also - in Berlin, it was nearly 80 degrees (not much humidity though).

http://www.letsrun.com/2009/10k0817.php

for the record wrote: I think that is why people say -- "We know Ritz can run in the heat."

And, Rupp doesn't do well in the heat, or when pollen counts are high. That is why the race is not a Rupp slam dunk; conditions are not optimal. The race will much more interesting than people think.

Heat hurts; heat plus humidity kills.

Something else to consider: the Schumacher group has been in Madison the last ten days trying to acclimate to the humidity; the NOP group has been in Park City, where the humidity is extremely low.

for the record wrote:

For the record, Ritz ran 2:11:07 at the 2008 Olympic Marathon trials and followed that up with 2:11:59 in the Beijing heat & humidity. He ran extremely well in the heat.

I think that is why people say -- "We know Ritz can run in the heat."

Also - in Berlin, it was nearly 80 degrees (not much humidity though).

http://www.letsrun.com/2009/10k0817.php

Any examples of when he has lost to inferior Americans due to pollen? Or just examples of him falling to ~7th or so in the world?

Inferior Americans? -2/10

Your fanboyism is way over the top. So far over, that you are clearly a troll pretending to be a fanboy.

Remember, Rupp is the one who has issues running well when pollen counts are high--he avoids racing. Pollen counts are expected to be high to very high on race day.

All I know is that Derrick not making the 10k would kill me. He is a great racer and I trust he is more than capable of sticking with the leaders in the race. Derrick also has been running consistently well and incrementally improving his PBs this season. I feel like True is the weakest out of the four, so I'm counting on him being out.

realism is not fanboyism.

You people think that Rupp will not make the team? To runners with PRs 34-53 seconds slower than his. Sure, they may be able to go faster, but many people said Rupp could shatter his PR last year.

The crop of 10,000m runners is better than ever, but not so good that a 26:48 dude needs to start worrying about qualifying.

Who said Rupp cannot make the team, troll? He has as good a chance as the "inferior Americans" you refer to, but not a "significantly" better chance, given the weather conditions.

The "inferior Americans" are not stupid. They know Rupp wants a slow race--which helps him when conditions are not optimal--and then he kicks at the end. The "inferior Americans" who don't have pollen issues can keep the pace honest enough to counter well-known Rupp strategy.

Rupp is not a "lock."

Montesquieu wrote:

Heat hurts; heat plus humidity kills.

Something else to consider: the Schumacher group has been in Madison the last ten days trying to acclimate to the humidity; the NHumiOP group has been in Park City, where the humidity is extremely low.[

Humidity has not been a factor at all in Wisconsin these past couple of weeks.

I live in the midwest, so I know how pleasant it has been. Still, 45% is better when trying to prepare for 65% than 15% is. And notice I said "trying to acclimate," and not "acclimating."

grammarian wrote:

Montesquieu wrote:

Heat hurts; heat plus humidity kills.

Something else to consider: the Schumacher group has been in Madison the last ten days trying to acclimate to the humidity; the NHumiOP group has been in Park City, where the humidity is extremely low.[

Humidity has not been a factor at all in Wisconsin these past couple of weeks.