Bolt will not win the 2012 Olympic 100m

Please reconsider your statement and the error will be obvious.

As an athete myself the information you used to base your opinion was weak. An athlete stating 'its not a big deal if they lose' is irrelevant. Fact, in the case of usain bolt he is asked hundreds of question daily, questions such as "what will you do if you lose".

The evidence you should have gone off was the fact that this Olympics is bolts career, his 20+ million per year paycheck. He was always going to be in near peak shape at the games.

In regards to drugs he may well be, but don't act so mind numbingly ignorant to say he 'must' be. The facts available: He clicked low 45 at 15, he is the fastest junior in history and broke 20 at 17. He was stick thin, had done no weights and had not strengthened his technique. He is now only .7x faster over 200m than he was at 17. Most significantly he has never failed a drug test.

We reason with facts and fact indicate he is clean irrespective of ypur personal skepticism.

only--

You might be right, that could well have been a mistake.

I thought about it, and decided that in the context of what he was saying, he meant it.

Of course I could have been totally incorrect, in which case score a big snow job for Bolt! Of course I also could have been correct, that is a matter of judgment.

only, since you think it was a mistake, can you say why you think it was a mistake, without reference to Bolt's performances at the Games?

(pay attention, you other posters--THAT is how it is done. "only a little" has identified something legitimate and critical, and framed it as something he "thinks", i.e. "believes", and therefore made sense, such that his post was amenable to a reasonable response)

Sprintgeezer wrote:

only--

You might be right, that could well have been a mistake.

I thought about it, and decided that in the context of what he was saying, he meant it.

Of course I could have been totally incorrect, in which case score a big snow job for Bolt! Of course I also could have been correct, that is a matter of judgment.

only, since you think it was a mistake, can you say why you think it was a mistake, without reference to Bolt's performances at the Games?

(pay attention, you other posters--THAT is how it is done. "only a little" has identified something legitimate and critical, and framed it as something he "thinks", i.e. "believes", and therefore made sense, such that his post was amenable to a reasonable response)

lol @ ventolin, contain the rage man ...

SG - it's only a mistake in hindsight and it may not be possible to decipher exactly why it was a mistake. Perhaps for all intent and purpose, at the time Bolt wasn't looking at himself like a god amongst men. Maybe there were issues he wasn't certain on solving. There are too many maybes, but in the end your prediction was incorrect, even if much of its reasoning was sound enough. I too saw a weakness i didn't expect and his runs in London showed up this weakness, the lack of endurance. But he has more strength now. And since his maintenance of speed is still impressive, he could wear the diminishment of his endurance capacities. Something like this.

Ban Ventolin already.

jasari--

If I used the word "must", maybe it was a poor choice of wording. If I did, I meant "effectively must", in light of whatever else I had written.

I'm aware of all the facts you posted, and they do serve to prove the contrary proposition, that he has not juiced--but they cannot be considered in isolation, and like the evidence tending to prove that he has juiced, must be assigned weight.

In total, I respect your view of my opinion as weak; I feel the same way about yours! But that does not mean that we shouldn't have the discussion.

I will disregard your last sentence--you can't legitimately cherry-pick only those facts that support only your proposition.

Let's see what condesending terms I can find in just one of Ventolin's posts! Lets seee

f*ckin moron

idiot

moron

f*cking idiot

moron subject

f*cking idiot

no reasoning

dumb prediction

f*ckin moron

drivel

you f*ckin idiot

Sprintgeezer wrote:

Blake is in his head. Bolt is the hunted, Blake the hunter.

It makes all the difference in the world in the 100m.

lol you must be some kind of jedi master

If it was a mistake, it was because my thinking at the time may have been too Bolt-centric.

I was thinking that Bolt would have been sure of himself if he knew he could go anywhere around 9.70 adjusted, but that assumed that Bolt believed that nobody else could go that fast other than him.

Maybe Bolt didn't know what Blake's true capability was at the Games. Or, the fact that Blake dropped his 9.70 adjusted after the Games, faster than he ran in the actual Games and equal to what Bolt ran in the Games, suggests that Bolt could have known that he had at least that capability, and that THAT was why he was unsure...i.e. Bolt really was unsure of whether or not he would win, and the only reason he did was because while he performed to his potential, Blake did not.

So, while I interpreted Bolt's statement to mean that his potential wasn't as good as it was, it could have referred to whether or not BLAKE would PERFORM to HIS potential, as BOLT knew it to be.

Choosing either interpretation would have been equally valid IMHO at the time. I chose the former, because I believed that Bolt's performance leading up to the Games would more than offset gains potentially realized as a result of his demonstrated prior championship-level fitness, which I didn't think he had time to achieve this year. Yes, I considered the 9.75 Yes, I considered the possibility of juicing, but I didn't think that he would do it (this is not a suggestion that he DID in fact do it).

These judgments were the specific sources of error in the prediction--as you say, clearly visible in hindsight.

Thank-YOU, only.

Ok fair considerations. I don't know this or not but i am assuming Blot and Blake train together and when you train with someone you know their capacity relative to yours.

Still, it was ballsy to go against Bolt and there probably should have been a few intelligent comments subtly bagging you out, but this hatefest is a little weird, even for the US.

Please could please send me 5 dollars and I will may out an information package so that you too can make millions. If Bolt is clean then the Easter Bunny and Santa Claus is real. The minute a compatriot is doing what he is doing at the same time from a tiny nation that recently had another guy doing all time records after about 25 years of Jamaican runners being also rans at the big meets something is up.

Drugs Drugs Drugs wrote:

Please could please send me 5 dollars and I will may out an information package so that you too can make millions. If Bolt is clean then the Easter Bunny and Santa Claus is real. The minute a compatriot is doing what he is doing at the same time from a tiny nation that recently had another guy doing all time records after about 25 years of Jamaican runners being also rans at the big meets something is up.

Or perhaps great athletes flock to train with other great athletes. It's not like Yohan Blake was a nobody and become a "Beast".

Just face it that Glen Mills is a good coach and Blake is a hard worker.

Oh God. This is funny. Look at the backtrack. One sentence, taken out of context and blown up to ridiculous proportions. Now, let's take these FIVE statements IN context and see what we could have learned from that.

1. Bolt has been saying for years that his aim and purpose is to be a living legend. In order to do that he has to win at Championships.

2. Bolt has said, he can lose every race throughout the year, as long as he wins at the Olympics. Once you have that gold, that's it. No one can take that win away from you and it'e the most important win through a 4 year period.

3. Bolt has said that in the London games he wants to do something that will make people say "Wow". Plus with all the Jamaicans there it would be like running on his home soil.

4. After the Jamaican trials, Glenn Mills said the outcome is what he expected. He'd sent Usain to run on the European circuit while Blake had stayed behind to train. At that point, Blake had a lot more training done than Bolt. Blake beating Bolt at that time came as no surprise to Mills.

5. In London, Michael Frater commented after watching Usain train with the rest of the squad saying he looks ready, looks as good as ever and to watch out for what he's going to do.

You put those 5 statements, and only those 5, even though there are a lot more examples against Bolt saying "if he loses" and make the claim that he will definitely lose? Seriously, how do you show your face back here. Though it must be hard with all that egg on it.

Try working these words/phrases into your vocabulary:

Maybe

probably

unlikely

perhaps

I'm making a wild guess

I'm sorry

I don't know what I'm talking about

I was wrong

Practice on those and come back when you can say them.

All sprint coaches are worthless. Too sprinters are top genetic specimens.