Men's US Olympic 1500m team 2012

I believe Jordan McNamara just ran a race that had him looking like a possible Oly team member

Interesting how they leapfrogged Wheating after that Harry Jerome race.

They must be judging Lomong strictly by appeared fitness as he has not raced a single 1500m this year and had only that one mile race.

This may all come down to positioning as none of the favorites are known for taking the pace over for more than 200m out from the finish.

As the prelims and semis occur we will be updating our thoughts.

So the top 3 in that T&FN formchart are people that are likely to double and their 4-6 are people that are likely to just run the 15.

I feel better about their 4-6 than their 1-3.

Lomong is questionable to even run the 15

Wheating is not completely fit but getting there

Andrews is inexperienced and will be running his 6th race of the week.

Centro is the best tactician

Manzano is the most experienced and seems healthy all year

Torrence has been the most consistant all year

I agree with everything here, Toro. Lomong, Wheating, and Andrews remain questionable top picks for a number of different reasons. I've been thinking for a few weeks that Torrence has a good shot of making the team, and I am standing with that opinion; he has been very 'on' this season, and he does not seem to be slowing down any time soon.

However, the one thing that makes me just a bit nervous about his chances is his kick. I know he's put up some good times, and his performances at Pre and adidas were both strong; yet I couldn't help thinking that a sharp Manzano or a sharp Centrowitz--if either had been in Torrence's position--would have been able to run down Lagat when he took the adidas race on Saturday.

well, wheating might make it? what do ya think? he come into form now

It seems like everyone thinks Centrowitz and Manzano are the favorites. I hope Wheating makes it, because he has come back from an awful injury. Still, the runners with the A standard have to all be the favorites.

I predict that 3 of the 6 TFN guys won't make the team but will run 3:33 in Europe later this summer.

It's a good bet that the race will go slow, due to: A) Tough qualifying rounds; B) Because it always does in these races, which never ceases to amaze me. Does everyone really believe they have the best kick? I can see if you have the 'A', but these guys like Will Leer, I don't get. If you know your only chance is in a fast race, wouldn't you want to make sure it is?

So, it will probably go much like the 2011 World trials. 3:47 or whatever so Centro, Wheating and 3rd someone like Leer, Acosta, then maybe Brown, Torrence next. So a 5th or 6th placer could go because they have the 'A'. Crazy!

With 7 having the A standard, hard to think that they would need to go to 6th place to get a third qualifier.

What B athletes have a chance of breaking into the top 3?

Leer is always dangerous. Wheating beat him by a nipple last year to get the third spot (4th place for Wheating but third spot when Lagat gave his spot up).

Third at 2010 USATF

5th in 2009

4th in 2008

Top 5 four years in a row for Leer.

I imagine the race will go out slow, but I also could see some people pushing the pace just a bit more than they did last year, doing as fast as 1:58 for the first half, with the eventual winner going something like 58, 60, 57, 39.

New player. Jeff See got the A standard.

Lopez Lomong has stated that he will double.

So, here are the competitors in the 1500 with the A standard:

Lomong

Manzano

Wheating

Centro

Brown

Torrence

Andrews

See

That's 8. (Rupp and Lagat also have the standard so actually 10 Americans ran under 3:35.50 within a year's time)

Plus Merber and McNamara also ran 3:35 high.

A dozen Americans running 3:35 or better is unprecedented.

Only two did that in 2004.

Just bumping this thread with the Announcement that Robby Andrews is scratching the 800 and only going for the 1500.

Same as Andrew Wheating which is not as surprising since he hasn't run USATF 800 in years.

We have a field full of kickers and no leaders.

This race could be messy.

Will someone fall, literally?

And there are nine guys below 3:37 who have the B and will likely need to run an A to be in the top three. That is, if the pace goes out hard. I think that if 4-5 guys are in that boat in the final they might collude to share the lead at a good clip.

And just consider this- with such a loaded field one or more of the top 12-13 runners might not even get to the final.

I give Torrence a very good shot. But if he lets it go slow (wouldn't think it would be slow with the A-chasers) with all the big kickers, then he lacks the guts to be an Olympian. But remember***- The 1500 top 3 changes so much every year.

So Lomong is officially scratched. Guess I got that wrong.

I'll say Wheating makes it and the US sends its best three - Centro, Manzano and Wheating.

Of course that probably will not happen.

Today is round 1.

30 runners, 3 heats of 10, to race and eliminate 6 people for a 24 man semifinal.

I agree they should have made the field 36. But I do like the three rounds to simulate the Olympics. This also helps those top guys race themselves into form.

This round basically eliminates guys that are currently not fit, not experienced or just mess up.

In 1996 I was one those eliminated in the first round, but they did have 36 then, actually more I think. 4 heats - some had 9, some had 10.

We will get a little bit of an idea of who is ready but I don't think the first round will reveal much.

Will any one shoot for the A standard today?

We could see a heat where all 10 make it through.

Getting this thread on the front page since it was started in early April and had updates along the way.

Russell Brown did not make the final so there are 6 athletes with the A standard in the final:

Manzano

Wheating

Centro

Torrence

Andrews

Jeff See

The others finalists are:

Andrew Bayer

Jordan McNamara

Will Leer

Miles Batty

Craig Miller

John Mickowski

In my opinion, the non A athletes are racing for pride, not for the Olympics.

If any of them manage to run 3:35.50, I don't see them beating 4 of the 6 top qualifiers at that pace.

If they get in the top 3, it would be a slow race and fortunate positioning, no A standard. I still don't see them out-kicking 4 out of those 6, though.

Regardless of the pace, it will be about positioning, conserving energy and a big kick with a nose for the finish.

Jeff See is the big dark horse. Anyone that picks him would score well if he makes it, because not many are picking him.

Manzano has 6 straight top 3 finishes at this meet. He seems healthy but never felt the need to put in a big performance before this race.

Centro was a "lock" going into the season but was hampered by injury. He seems healthy. Did he lose to much fitness?

Wheating has the best 1500 and 800 PR's. Seemingly the most talented. Also hurt early but coming on now. Runs in lane 2 a lot when the pace is slow, giving up distance and having to race harder. To me, susceptible to bad luck but has the wheels.

Andrews is the big X factor. Big kick. Has the least experience. Skipped the 800 to give all of his energy in the 1500.

Torrence has looked good all year. Good 800 time. Good 5000 time. Good kick. Hit 3:34 low a couple years ago. He will take advantage of anyone's bad day.

Want to give a mention to Leer who has placed top 5 at USTAF for the last several years. Just doesn't have a fast enough 1500m time.

I really think this the most interesting event at the Trials.

I can't say that there is a single one of these guys that is a real big favorite to make the team.

I don't give any of them a 50% chance.

Wheating

Manzano

Andrews

Let me take a crack at this and see how wrong I wind up being after talking about it for three months.

Manzano 3:36.50 or 3:46. no idea what the first 800 will be

Centrowitz

Wheating

Torrence

Andrews

Leer

See

Batty

McNamara

Bayer

Miller

Mickowski

3:46 seems more likely. McNamara is someone who may lead the first 800 in a decent pace.

400m 57.6 McNamara