TriDude wrote:
by the commonly accepted rule 70.3 time x2 + 30min that would make him come in at 8:10 in Hawaii. If he can improve (likely), I can see sub 8 happening for him. That would be great.
I think you're a little off on your prediction. My friends who race IM distance use the formula you wrote, 70.3 x 2 + 30 minutes, as a predictor of potential, however they always tell me "but not in Kona". They tell me it's a rare day that the winds or heat don't play a big factor in Hawaii.
Other Ironman courses, yes...Roth, Austria, Florida, Arizona.
I never got past Half Ironman so can't give any personal experience to back it up, but I have talked to a lot of people who do a lot of Ironmans and they're pretty consistent in this assertation.
Dave Scott went 8:24 in Hawaii the year he turned 40. I would be very impressed if LA raced Hawaii this fall and was in that range.