Give Me Your Top 5 for the Olympic Marathon Trials

Or, maybe they'll put JCB on the payroll to make sure they've got it covered either way? Wonder how they see Goucher these days, anyway.

Corporate Machine wrote:

From the wire... wrote:

Think about it... If Davilla and C-Bawcom could agree to take turns sharing the load, Goucher could eventually drop if she isn't fully back to fitness.

Hmmm...so maybe Nike would consider offering C-Bawcom some under-the-table 'incentives' not to do that?

Hall

Meb

Curtis

Flan

Hastings

Desiree.

No, have not qualified yet (but am trying). There are FAR better runners than me who have already earned their right to take a crack. I just think guys like Sergio Reyes, Harttman, Leo Kormanik, Tyler McClandess to only name a few are training hard (as am I to qualify to compete). Ritz, Meb, Hall, Rupp (although not running that we know of) all deserve the respect and attention they get. They are the top tier but I love hearing about great stories like what Trent Briney did in 04 or Sell in 08. Wejo has and always will have my respect. He had limited talent yet worked harder than most would and ran an outstanding 28.04 10K, 1.05 half and 2.23 marathon (times I have not run minus his marathon time), that deserves a great deal of respect and I think less 'talented' runners have an even greater story to tell because a greater % of the running community in this country can relate to what we do.

Fewer can relate to multiple NCAA National Champions, sub 8.45 2-milers (while in high school) and Foot Locker Champions. Great achievements by great athletes but we expect them to continually run stellar times. They work extremely hard but they have an enormous engine. What we don't expect is seeing guys like Briney nearly make the Olympic team or Nate Jenkins run a 2.14 and nearly make the 08 Team. I am rooting for the unknowns. Guys like Scott Wietecha who has a 2.24 marathon PR going for a Trials qualifier in early December like me, who just ran a tennessee state record for 10 miles (50.09) winning by 9 minutes.

[quote]NateP wrote: I am rooting for the unknowns./quote]

Exactly. I like to root for the underdogs who have the talent. Maybe that is why I like you for who you are....a big bark, I mean "confidence"....good to see you, Nate. Best of luck in CIM.

Men

Hall, Meb, Ritz, Gotcher, and Arciniaga.

Women

Desi, Flanagan, Kastor, Goucher, and Hastings.

Had the trials race been in Nyc we would've known the team. Nyc is way better than Houston Marathon. Nyc happens earlier giving the runners more time to prepare.

I didn't qualify for the Olympic Trials. I'm scared of running the marathon. I ran half marathon debut in Long Beach Half Marathon in 2009.

Hall - Meb - Trafeh

Davila - Flanagan - Hastings

Hall

Ritz will end up on the track

Anyone else is not significant and is just wasting USATF dollars

Davila

Flanagan will end up on the track

Much like the men, everyone else is just filling a uniform

Of course Hall, Meb, and Ritz are the favourites. All seem to be healthy and well leading up into the race, so it's hard to see anyone beating them.

If one of them has a bad day, I can see guys like Mo Trafeh, Jason Lehmkuhle, Fasil Bizuneh, Andrew Carlson, Matt Gabrielson, Tim Nelson, Brent Vaughn or Brett Gotcher sneaking up there if the gods are with them.

Nick A is coming off an injury, Rupp, Moran and Curtis aren't running, so enough with those bone-head predictions please.

Personally, I WANT to see

1. Ritz

2. Hall

3. Carlson

But my odds-on prediction is:

1. Hall

2. Meb

3. Ritz

Men

Hall is a lock....but from there????

Hall (class of the field)

Meb (has shown amazing consistency in the marathon)

three through five are WIDE open...

Lehm (is he healthy? will run 211 to 212ish)

Hartman (has stepped up his game)

Ritz (enough miles under his belt?)

Gotcher (not running as well as previously but has shown the ability)

Nick Arciniaga (211 to 212 like Lehm is my guess)

Abdi (a comeback?)

Morgan/Humphreys? (Hanson always has well prepared athletes)

Women

I think its a bit more open than people expect....

Flanagan (only one marathon under her belt, and I do think at times Schumacher's athletes are a bit overtrained)

Desi (again, Hanson athletes always well prepared)

Kastor (over 26.2 her aging and lack of true speed aren't an issue....she can run hard from 30K on and drop a bunch of folks)

Goucher (even from her blog it sounds like she's getting her a$$ handed to her in workouts....maybe not quite ready, and perhaps pushed too much in a Schumacher program initially)

Nelson (she was a 100 meters from winning Chicago...she's a solid sub230 regardless)

Cherobon (think she's racing too much but seems to improve with each race)

Magda (no sense of her fitness, but she's been running much better over 26.2 in the last couple of years)

Pritz (impressive debut but first marathon takes a ton out of you, so recovery might be an issue)

curious to see how this all plays out.....going to be a ton of fun to watch.

There's always some drama, and its much more entertaining than any other marathon with so much at stake.

Men

1. Hall

2. Meb

3. Ritz

4. Hartmann

5. Gotcher

Women

1. Davila

2. Flanagan

3. Hastings

4. Goucher

5. Nelson

1) Hall

2) Meb

3) Fight between Ritz, Torres, Moran, Hartman, Trafeh, Arciniaga, and Lehmkuhle

Dark Horse: Ed Moran

Will LetsRun cover the NCAA cross? How are they planning to cover the Olympic Marathon Trials? Wejo can you fill us in on your plans to cover the Olympics?

So you sit on the feeds from others? That's pathetic.

It's Hammer Time wrote:

1) Hall

2) Meb

3) Fight between Ritz, Torres, Moran, Hartman, Trafeh, Arciniaga, and Lehmkuhle

Dark Horse: Ed Moran

Torres and Moran are not running.

Torres is injured.

Moran just got married and promised no running on his honeymoon and has said he will skip the trials.

No special order but I expect eventually 3 of these will toe the London Line. Note sneaky wording here;)

Davila

Rhines

Lewy-Boulet

Goucher

Hastings

Kastor

Like most even on an off day I expect Hall can get in the top three.

Other guys in the hunt no specific odor

Meb

Moran

Ritz

Trafeh

1) Hall- No doubt, clearly the best American marathoner

2) Meb- Owns Ritz over the Marathon, unless he makes a big leap.

3) Ritz- Still better then the rest.

4) Trafeh- Certainly talented, could crack top 3 if Ritz has an off day, will be just outside of it if not.

5) Arciniaga- Fairly consistent, seems to peak well. Don't know if he is a threat for the top 3 though.

Dark Horse- Eggleston will be hungry after a tough DNF at Pan AMs. If he doesn't over race himself between now and then, I think he could threaten for top 5, unless the top 5 go out blazingly fast.

James Carney will make the team. You read it here first.

I'm liking all the love for Meb and while my heart says yes my head says very unlikely.

He's 36 now and NYC was a big effort, he looked pretty beaten up in the last miles as he put it all on the line for a PR. That will take some recovering from. So 10 weeks turn around is not going to be easy for him at this stage of his career. The odds of him putting together 2 consecutive build ups without getting hurt are not high.

On the plus side he's got nothing to prove with his silver already in the bag. So he can afford to recover properly and go into the trials a bit undercooked knowing that its not the be all and end all for him. The pressure could get to the other guys and he picks up the pieces.

Wish we had this sort of shootout for Olympic spots over here in the UK !

Adrian