J.R. wrote:
Maybe it's about the 50th greatest of all time.
someone who actually watched wrote:
Please name the 49 that were better.
Are you so ignorant you can't figure it out for yourself.
I'm not saying it is about the 50th best performance of all time, just that it might be. The NY hypeathon certainly is the most overhyped marathon in history though.
michael arnstein wrote:
uh, to be fair, this guy Mutai has the best luck ever when it comes to TAIL wind. Boston 2011 and NYC 2011 had serious tail winds. Of course he beat everyone, but the times at NYC today were heavily influenced by a solid 10mph tail wind for about 19 miles of the course
I raised this question earlier. Thanks for the detailed information.
wanjiru thought he could become the first runner to go under 2 hours, and while i believe he could have broken the world record, sub 2 hours has always been out of the question and is at this time. it will happen in the next 100 years, maybe in our lifetimes, maybe not... the individual that does this will have to be more of a freak of nature in the marathon than usain bolt was in the sprints. the marathon equivalent of usain bolt bringing down the 100 WR from 9.74 eventually down to 9.58 would be bringing the 2:03:38 WR down to 2:01:36 or so...
michael arnstein wrote:
uh, to be fair, this guy Mutai has the best luck ever when it comes to TAIL wind. Boston 2011 and NYC 2011 had serious tail winds. Of course he beat everyone, but the times at NYC today were heavily influenced by a solid 10mph tail wind for about 19 miles of the course
No. There was a 5-mph breeze from the southwest today. It was a pure tailwind for the first miles, across the bridge and up Fourth Avenue. Through Williamsburg, Queens, and the Queensborough Bridge it was not a factor at all, as the course zigzags quite a bit. In Manhattan, it was a tailwind for four miles and a headwind for four miles.
Great conditions? Yes-- you'd rather have a south wind then a north wind. But the conditions today didn't remotely compare to Boston, and even if the wind was stiffer, the course doesn't allow athletes to take advantage of it in the same way that Boston's point-to-point course does.
hyperbole wrote:
Most def. value and toughness wise domination as well. We will see what Mutai does in a medal event.
I love how quickly wejo has already forgotten the 2008 Olympic race in brutal conditions as opposed to the perfect conditions in NY today.
rekrunner wrote:
According to this ARRS link,
http://www.arrs.net/TB_Mara.htmaverage marathon biases are:
+52.3 New York City (NY/USA)
-1.1 Frankfurt (GER)
-68.5 Berlin (GER)
So New York is typically 52 seconds slow, while Berlin is 69 seconds fast, and Frankfurt (and Chicago -0.1) are fairly neutral.
I haven't seen specific race time biases for these 2011 races, but assuming we can use the "average" race time biases:
- The 2:03:38 in Berlin is only worth 2:04:46.5
- The 2:03:42 in Frankfurt is worth a 2:03:43.1
- A 2:05:06 performance in New York is worth a 2:04:13.7
This year's Boston advantage was computed to be -1:37 (?) this year, making a 2:03:02 worth 2:04:39.
Sammy Wanjiru's Olympic performance of 2:06:32 was worth 2:04:00.
This link
http://www.arrs.net/AllTime/ATB_Mara.htmshould be updated after the end of the year, and then we can see how all of the 2011 races compare, according to statistical calculations by the ARRS.
More of the magical time conversions that make Ryan Hall's 2:04:58 in Boston equal 5:10:00.
Assuming a -1:37 bias, then Ryan effectively ran the equivalent of a 2:06:35 -- a very good run for him, and comparable to his 2:06:17 in London (bias adjusted to a 2:06:46).
An educated person wrote:
More of the magical time conversions that make Ryan Hall's 2:04:58 in Boston equal 5:10:00.
I meant Amsterdam....was hotter than China, same time.
categorically wrote:
You can't underestimate the role of pacemaking. Remember that Wanjiru led the pace from very early on in Beijing. He did a lot of extra work that guys like Makau and Kipsang didn't do.
While i think that Wanjiru's Beijing performance is the best ever, i don't think your statement is correct. Merga was with him for the first part and was even pushing the pace. Sammy sat back a number of times after his some of his surges. Sammy eventually killed everyone but he did not lead from the gun.
I think Sammy Wanjiru could have run a comparable time to Geoffrey's at NY.
No, not at all. It depends on the calculated 2011 biases, which I haven't seen yet. And you are right, that even these biases do not fully capture the individual benefit of pacemaking. I thought all the caveats would be obvious, but I'll make them explicit now.First, I'm just interpreting figures calculated and posted at the ARRS website. Although I have some confidence they use a sound statistical approach to comparing what cannot be easily compared, I can't speak for the accuracy and uncertainty of their computed race biases, without performing the calculations myself, or analyzing the data and the methods (which I haven't done and will not do).Second, I haven't seen specific race biases for 2011, except for Boston. The ARRS will compute an exact race bias, based on their methods and criteria, the actual race results and some predicted results. We likely won't see these results for 2011 until January 2012. I specifically said we would have to wait until the website is updated. For example, if everyone in Frankfurt ran 30 seconds faster than expected (e.g. due to good weather, and some course changes), then Kipsang's time becomes 2:04:11 -- still a great run, but now ranking below Wanjiru (2:04:00), and Geb (2:04:10), in the ARRS adjusted all time performance rankings. Same thing with Makau. (I just noticed that Kipsang's 2010 Frankfurt performance of 2:04:57 is ranked by the ARRS as the third best all time adjusted performance, with a corrected time of 2:04:36).But I don't have the 2011 data. In the meantime, I made some calculations with the course average, which is the average race bias for all of the previous years for which there is data (e.g. 1973-2010). But don't confuse the specific 2011 race bias, which I haven't seen anywhere yet, with the average race bias over all previous years. One is specific to that day, and represent variable effects, like weather, while the other is an overall average, which tends to show constant effects, like course difficulty.And third, we are dealing with statistics, which in and of itself, has some inherent uncertainties. Averages tend to dull out individual variations:a) The bias is an computation of the averages of selected expected times, subtracted from the actual times. The expected time is some theoretical calculation, based on previous recent performances, and an assumption of equivalent fitness. Besides any possible doubts that we can model performance to produce an accurate prediction in the best case, several individual factors such as injury, illness, training, race day nutrition, lack of sleep, etc., may mean the prediction is overly optimistic, or too pessimistic.b) Even the specific 2011 race bias will be an average over many individual values. It would be unrealistic to think that individual race conditions (e.g. weather) will affect everyone equally. For example, a hot marathon will affect heavier runners more than lighter runners. Similarly, pace-making will benefit a handful of runners, but not everyone in the sample. So the bias will not fully reflect the advantage of a paced race versus a non-paced race.So *only* if we assume 2011 is typical for Frankfurt, Berlin, and New York, then we can statistically argue that Kipsang has the best all-time performance, even if it fell short of the world record.
categorically wrote:
rekrunner -
Are you saying that you think Wilson Kipsang is the de facto world record holder when you take course/conditions into account?
You can't underestimate the role of pacemaking. Remember that Wanjiru led the pace from very early on in Beijing. He did a lot of extra work that guys like Makau and Kipsang didn't do. G Mutai had an unofficial pacemaker in Boston in Ryan Hall and he didn't really go to the front alone until after 30k today.
So, basically you are saying that you, like everyone else, have absolutely no objective idea who has run the best all time marathon performance when correcting for course/conditions, etc, and that whoever you say is simply your gut opinion. Sounds reasonable to me.
rekrunner wrote:
No, not at all. It depends on the calculated 2011 biases, which I haven't seen yet. And you are right, that even these biases do not fully capture the individual benefit of pacemaking. I thought all the caveats would be obvious, but I'll make them explicit now.
First, I'm just interpreting figures calculated and posted at the ARRS website. Although I have some confidence they use a sound statistical approach to comparing what cannot be easily compared, I can't speak for the accuracy and uncertainty of their computed race biases, without performing the calculations myself, or analyzing the data and the methods (which I haven't done and will not do).
Second, I haven't seen specific race biases for 2011, except for Boston. The ARRS will compute an exact race bias, based on their methods and criteria, the actual race results and some predicted results. We likely won't see these results for 2011 until January 2012. I specifically said we would have to wait until the website is updated. For example, if everyone in Frankfurt ran 30 seconds faster than expected (e.g. due to good weather, and some course changes), then Kipsang's time becomes 2:04:11 -- still a great run, but now ranking below Wanjiru (2:04:00), and Geb (2:04:10), in the ARRS adjusted all time performance rankings. Same thing with Makau. (I just noticed that Kipsang's 2010 Frankfurt performance of 2:04:57 is ranked by the ARRS as the third best all time adjusted performance, with a corrected time of 2:04:36).
But I don't have the 2011 data. In the meantime, I made some calculations with the course average, which is the average race bias for all of the previous years for which there is data (e.g. 1973-2010). But don't confuse the specific 2011 race bias, which I haven't seen anywhere yet, with the average race bias over all previous years. One is specific to that day, and represent variable effects, like weather, while the other is an overall average, which tends to show constant effects, like course difficulty.
And third, we are dealing with statistics, which in and of itself, has some inherent uncertainties. Averages tend to dull out individual variations:
a) The bias is an computation of the averages of selected expected times, subtracted from the actual times. The expected time is some theoretical calculation, based on previous recent performances, and an assumption of equivalent fitness. Besides any possible doubts that we can model performance to produce an accurate prediction in the best case, several individual factors such as injury, illness, training, race day nutrition, lack of sleep, etc., may mean the prediction is overly optimistic, or too pessimistic.
b) Even the specific 2011 race bias will be an average over many individual values. It would be unrealistic to think that individual race conditions (e.g. weather) will affect everyone equally. For example, a hot marathon will affect heavier runners more than lighter runners. Similarly, pace-making will benefit a handful of runners, but not everyone in the sample. So the bias will not fully reflect the advantage of a paced race versus a non-paced race.
So *only* if we assume 2011 is typical for Frankfurt, Berlin, and New York, then we can statistically argue that Kipsang has the best all-time performance, even if it fell short of the world record.
categorically wrote:rekrunner -
Are you saying that you think Wilson Kipsang is the de facto world record holder when you take course/conditions into account?
You can't underestimate the role of pacemaking. Remember that Wanjiru led the pace from very early on in Beijing. He did a lot of extra work that guys like Makau and Kipsang didn't do. G Mutai had an unofficial pacemaker in Boston in Ryan Hall and he didn't really go to the front alone until after 30k today.
michael arnstein wrote:
uh, to be fair, this guy Mutai has the best luck ever when it comes to TAIL wind. Boston 2011 and NYC 2011 had serious tail winds. Of course he beat everyone, but the times at NYC today were heavily influenced by a solid 10mph tail wind for about 19 miles of the course
Haha, wow. I ran yesterday and there was a headwind in several spots around the course. Nice try though.
I don't know why everyone is trying to compare what is not comparable. It's like trying to compare Rod Laver, Pete Sampras and Roger Federer. Why can't we just appreciate the races as they happen and not try to compare things that cannot be compared.
Some say that if Mutai raced against Wanjiru or someone faster than him he would have run a faster time. That remains to be seen. If he had gone faster in the beginning of the race, who knows if he could have run faster in the latter part of the race.
G.Mutai was the best at NYM in 2011 and that's it. Why don't they ajust the 10k track time according to weather conditions then? Marilson Da Silva ran a 29' 10k at the Pan American games in Guadalajara in oppressive heat. Does that mean he would have ran a low 27 in perfect conditions at sea level? No one asks that question because people assume that tracks times should be comparable anywhere in the world. If we're comparing marathon times according to courses and race conditions then we should compare track times as well.
I'm not sure what you mean by *my* gut opinion, but basically yes. I am not better than the ARRS, but I like their approach, as far as I understand it.
Sir Lance-alot wrote:
So, basically you are saying that you, like everyone else, have absolutely no objective idea who has run the best all time marathon performance when correcting for course/conditions, etc, and that whoever you say is simply your gut opinion.
Sounds reasonable to me.
casual commentary wrote:
I think Sammy Wanjiru could have run a comparable time to Geoffrey's at NY.
He never ran a comparable time at London or Chicago so I don't know how you determined that.
My brother was giving me a hard time because a 70 year old ran a 2:50 at new York. Really? The results say Vincent Casillo ran a 2:50.
I Googled his name and found his name at Athlinks, where a 70 year old Vincent Casillo ran a 4:15 at the Long Island Marathon in May, 2011.
Quite an improvement, right?
Anybody know the story about this?
My run was better. I'm not dead. See me in london run better.
sammyw wrote:
My run was better. I'm not dead. See me in london run better.
God will allow me to glorify him with Gold and WR (best run ever).
Does anyone know what the leg injury Mutai had that needed surgery? The recommended read on the front page says that he quit running when he could not afford surgery on his leg, but what was the injury?