New England DIII XC

Graboys struggles a bit but the weather is still warm. He hasn't been able to run as well in the heat with the exception of a race or too but once the temperatures cool a bit and the ground hardens up we will see.

National Rankings: BOOM!

#6: Midd

#7: MIT

#9: Bates

#13: Williams

#17: Tufts

JUMBO5 wrote:

WRONG! cassidy ran 27:52 in the sub-varsity race this weekend. compare that to graboys running 26:43 and finishing 31st at hoffman as a close 7th man for bates. i'd say graboys will be more a factor come regionals than cassidy, even if he isn't where he was last year. could be a strong 5th man for bates

Graboys has run 3-4 races and run around 27:00 each time. that's a much stronger indicator of his fitness than one race for cassidy, who I assume has been banged up, and who also has raced inconsistently in the past.

Lets go back to last year when Hannan was out for most of the season running 27's... Came back and finished 10th nescac, 31st region. I dont think it is out of the question that Graboys comes back in 4 weeks...

stride wrote:

National Rankings: BOOM!

#6: Midd

#7: MIT

#9: Bates

#13: Williams

#17: Tufts

#33: Bowdoin

Well there are a few differences. Hannan was progressing and his times getting faster throughout the year, Graboys has held constant. Also Hannan is and has been a great post-season racer, Graboys doesn't seem like as much of a racer/runner. Maybe I am wrong, but after I see someone run 27:00 3 races in a row, I am pretty sure they aren't going to suddenly drop two minutes, or even one minute. I was wrong on Cassidy, but I am still curious because I do not think that one race can say where he will end the season.

Unfortunately, don't expect this 3 in the top 10, 4 in the top 15, 5 in the top 20, to last. I mean New England is good, but the voters will realize other regions are good too, and as some teams in NE fall apart over the next 2-3 races and teams trade off victories, it will hurt the region's image and rankings. Also, look out for Wesleyan at the NESCAC meet, I see them surprising, like last year

bc! wrote:

Unfortunately, don't expect this 3 in the top 10, 4 in the top 15, 5 in the top 20, to last. I mean New England is good, but the voters will realize other regions are good too, and as some teams in NE fall apart over the next 2-3 races and teams trade off victories, it will hurt the region's image and rankings. Also, look out for Wesleyan at the NESCAC meet, I see them surprising, like last year

I agree the high ranking of our region is risky, but there is nothing saying that we will fall apart. Atlantic was a region contending for 5 teams to go, still is, and Bates tooled on them... If anything that is exactly what we needed. MIT is racing against some huge teams and even if they come in 4th it proves that the region is still strong. However if MIT goes and beats any of the top 3 teams there it only proves that our region is willing and able to contend with the best of them. I wish the best to MIT this weekend for our regions sake. Kick some candy stick ass (NCC).

Graboys doesn't seem much like a racer/runner? You clearly do NOT know him.

MiddKid wrote:

Graboys doesn't seem much like a racer/runner? You clearly do NOT know him.

Seconded. That was one of the most hilarious things I've read in a while.

What do you mean by racer/runner? A kid is a racer/runner because he finishes 73 instead of 74th? A lot of it has to do with the talent level here. Is he going 90%? Is he saving a lot so he can sprint past 5 kids in the last 100 meters and look really good at the only point anyone is going to be watching?

speaking of Wesleyan, anyone know what the deal is with Marsh? he was 14th at regionals and ran a 1438 5k last year yet he has not raced yet this year

bc! wrote:Also, look out for Wesleyan at the NESCAC meet, I see them surprising, like last year

Wesleyan last year at opens:

26. 602 Wesleyan ( 26:22 2:11:48)

=================================

1 63 Skyler Cummins 25:50

2 80 Matt Katz 26:00

3 117 Jamie Lawrence 26:19

4 144 Bryan Marsh 26:33

5 198 Julian Applebaum 27:06

6 (217) Alec Jolicoeur 27:18

7 (252) Austin Cotant 27:45

(compare to Williams 8th, Bowdoin 11th, Bates 15th, Tufts 17th, Amherst 21st, Midd 24th - Midd comes back to win at NESCACs)

vs this year

30. 720 Wesleyan ( 27:06 2:15:27)

=================================

1 67 Skyler Cummins 26:07

2 97 Austin Cotant 26:32

3 174 Seth Hafferkamp 27:26

4 183 Mac Schneider 27:34

5 199 Julian Applebaum 27:48

(Midd 4th, Tufts 8th, Williams 9th, Bowdoin 18th, Amherst 19th - don't forget Bates FTW @ St Lawrence)

Based off their performance at Opens, there's a much larger differential between them and the likely top 5 teams in the NESCAC (and Amherst) than there was last year. This could change a little if Marsh is healthy and races well, but that's still a huge gap to close.

and I forgot Conn in 25th place was ahead of them too, and they should have some serious upside if their guys run the way they ran in track.

To even consider Wesleyan in the running for top 5 at regionals is out of the question. They will be lucky if one of their guys in the top 15 as an individual. Bowdoin although not having a great race at Opens would tool on Wesleyan. I think the only team that even has a glimmer of hope at the already top 5 is Bowdoin... If any other team manages to beat the others, I will loose all faith in the NESCAC.

NESCAC Predictions:

Individuals:

Contending for individual title: front pack

Schmidt

Rand

Dilts

Hannan

Koima

-------

Davies

Martin

Wallis

Randuazo

Leduc

Hebble

-------

Not sure... def missing some guys in that second pack, I think the front pack is a pretty good guess though.

Midd has got a great pack and their 1-5 has been mixing it up and running fast I have got to think that they are battling for the repeat. With Williams and Bates close behind, and Tufts in the mix. 5th is Bowdoin with amherst, wes, con, next

comeing to play wrote:

Not sure... def missing some guys in that second pack, I think the front pack is a pretty good guess though.

Midd has got a great pack and their 1-5 has been mixing it up and running fast I have got to think that they are battling for the repeat. With Williams and Bates close behind, and Tufts in the mix. 5th is Bowdoin with amherst, wes, con, next

you forgot MIT.... why are we talking about wesleyan they are way off the pace. the only teams outside the current top 5 that have even a prayer of breaking in are Bowdoin and Conn, and it would be a pretty long shot for Conn.

Also I don't think Dilts and Hannan are in the same league as Rand and Schmidt, considering they ran a minute slower at Franklin park, and 30+ seconds slower than Wallis and Hebble.

I heard that Marsh quit the team to focus on playing the bongo drums full time. For a team that is, as usual, about as deep as a kiddy pool this spells disaster. Look for them to get tooled on by Salem St at regionals.

I think Bates has to be ranked #1 in the region after last weekend. Not only were they strong up front (top 5), but their 6-12 guys were all close. They have huge depth, and if Graboys and regain form they will be even stronger. If not, they are still good.

lolllllll wrote:

you forgot MIT.... why are we talking about wesleyan they are way off the pace. the only teams outside the current top 5 that have even a prayer of breaking in are Bowdoin and Conn, and it would be a pretty long shot for Conn.

Also I don't think Dilts and Hannan are in the same league as Rand and Schmidt, considering they ran a minute slower at Franklin park, and 30+ seconds slower than Wallis and Hebble.

You can't look at the times from codfish to open's and expect them to compare at all. codfish was a completely different (less competitive race. i would look at the early bowdoin meet as more of an indicator, where hannan and dilts finished in between rand and wallis. i would think they are still in that gap (ie somewhere between 3 and 7 regionally)

I agree. To discount Dilts and Hannan from being up with Schmidt and Rand would be foolish. They haven't raced anyone from the NESCAC since the first meet at Bowdoin, and whose to say they haven't been taking the races i.e. codfish as more of a workout while other teams are off... I think Rand beating Schmidt was nice, but Schmidt is a much more experienced racer and after last years sub par showing at nationals that's his only focus if you ask me. Don't just assume Rand will be ahead of all these guys, if you do, I can almost guarantee disappointment. I think it will be a close race, and will come down to who can put away the last mile at Bowdoin in a sub 4:40... I think it will take sub 24:10 to win... fast as hell.

that guy wrote:

I heard that Marsh quit the team to focus on playing the bongo drums full time. For a team that is, as usual, about as deep as a kiddy pool this spells disaster. Look for them to get tooled on by Salem St at regionals.

I think Bates has to be ranked #1 in the region after last weekend. Not only were they strong up front (top 5), but their 6-12 guys were all close. They have huge depth, and if Graboys and regain form they will be even stronger. If not, they are still good.

Not to mention if that Wortham kid ever gets healthy