RE: Does Galen Rupp really have a shot at winning a medal in Berlin?

I'm sorry if my original post sounded a bit harsh. I support Rupp, but I think it's going to be very difficult for him to breakthrough in international races because of the alliances the east african countries build in racing.

It seems like Rupp will be the lone American racing in a sea of africans, he will not have Abdi there to push him. Ritzenhein will be racing but I don't think he's at Rupp's level.

In fact, I dont believe that Ritzenhein has raced well against africans in long distances since his first half marathon and his race at the world junior championships where he placed third.

Rupp will have to become another "african mazungo" who can keep up with the africans, the way Craig Mottram did 2-5 years ago. If he learns their tactics and run wisely, he will have a shot.

I hope he does well. I really do.

Rupp DNF

HAHA...gang up on Rupp?!! What a joke, I guarentee you none of the good Africans have ever even heard of him. They will just see some little scrawny kid in the race and ignore him knowing he will be gone back in 15th place at 7K.

Rupp's closing speed will not be a factor at all even if the pace is slow. The African's "slow" is going out in 13:40, well below Rupp's PR pace. Bekele regularly closes races sub 4 like at Beijing with a sub 5 last 2K and last lap getting sub 13. Rupp's closing speed is nothing to rave about, he only beat the 2nd place 10K finisher at NCAA by like 2 seconds and people think he can compete with Bekele, Sihine, Masai etc? Anybody can close fasat when they run much slower than their PR's. And what, do you think Rupp is the only one that will be sprinting the last 2 laps? No, everybody will be

At best, I say he gets 12th.

PS: Go GERMAN!!!

snipr wrote:

music is happiness wrote:

Who expected Teg to nearly medal in 2007?

Don't think he'll medal, but he'll run a helluva lot better than any American has in a 10K championship in recent times.

Don't be stupid. In 93 and 95 Todd Williams finished in 7th and 9th. In 2007 Abdi finished in 7th and Ritz in 9th.

And now you are saying Rupp is gonna do a helluva lot better than that? He'll be lucky to finish 10th. You are insulting USA Track and Field. Fall back and apologize.

Haha, you attempted to his dispute his statement regarding "recent times" by pulling out williams results from over a decade ago! Over a decade ago there was really about 3 kenyans and 3 ethiopians to worry about, but Geb was the only really good one. Now you have eritreans at the top as well as more kenyans running for qatar and uganda. Terrible reference back to Williams.

Abdi did get 7th in 2007, that was legit. Rupp was 4 spots behind him. Rupp is completely different now than in 2007 and I'd expect him to be more of a factor in the race than Abdi was in 2007, even if his place ends up being about the same. Abdi was over 50 seconds behind 1st place. I think Rupp can be within 30.

10,000 Metres - M Final

.27 august 2007 - 21:40Position Bib Athlete Country Mark .

1 531 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 27:05.90 (SB)

2 539 Sileshi Sihine ETH 27:09.03 .

3 776 Martin Irungu Mathathi KEN 27:12.17 .

4 499 Zersenay Tadese ERI 27:21.37 .

5 778 Josephat Muchiri Ndambiri KEN 27:31.41 .

6 535 Gebre-egziabher Gebremariam ETH 27:44.58 .

7 1082 Abdihakem Abdirahman USA 27:56.62 .

8 777 Josphat Kiprono Menjo KEN 28:25.67 .

9 1132 Dathan Ritzenhein USA 28:28.59 (SB)

10 1065 Boniface Kiprop UGA 28:30.99 .

11 1136 Galen Rupp USA 28:41.71 .

12 755 Kensuke Takezawa JPN 28:51.69 .

13 540 Tola Tadesse ETH 28:51.75 .

14 832 Alejandro Suárez MEX 28:52.19 .

15 1062 Wilson Kipkemei Busienei UGA 29:24.72 (SB)

16 1040 Dickson Marwa Mkami TAN 29:25.91 .

17 746 Kazuhiro Maeda JPN 29:48.17 .

18 875 Michael Aish NZL 30:34.16

Bling Bling and Benjamins wrote:

Rupp is completely different now than in 2007

Yeah, he got lapped that time. Maybe if he tries real hard he won't get lapped in 2009.

The other problem Galen will have is that he will go at it alone. If you watch the video's of the Africans they run for country not individual glory. Teammates will sacrific there own race to make sure a country man wins for their country. Galen will not have teammates that can keep up with the surging pace, let alone protect him. Watch the videos and you can see what I'm talking about and if you find the english version of the video the commentator talk about it. Galen for 10th.

snipr wrote:

Bling Bling and Benjamins wrote:

Rupp is completely different now than in 2007

Yeah, he got lapped that time. Maybe if he tries real hard he won't get lapped in 2009.

You mean like last year in the olympics? He was about a half lap behind right? That's cutting some distance off isn't it smarty pants? Do you think he isn't better than a year ago cutie pie?

It's hard to predict where he will finish, but I will say this. When he came back from the Olympics he made a big shift in fitness. The previous year after Worlds he came back and got beat at his first race at Pac-10 Cross by teammate Biwott while rusty obviously.

Last fall he came back and murdered the field including 4 guys who would place in the top 10 at NCAA's (including Biwott) by about a minute each over 8K.

Just before that he soloed the famous Oregon 30-40 drill and made 24 laps before he was told to stop! Now obviously if you have never done this workout you can't appreciate what that means. He went a mile longer than Pre ever made it, and 2 miles longer than Salazar ever made it. Pre and Salazar were able to workout with a group for that workout, Rupp did it alone. Not only that but he was hitting UNDER pace nearly the entire workout except for a few splits in the middle. He was under pace when he was told to stop, in a workout that is supposed to stop only when you fail.

Technically you're allowed to keep going as long as your not hitting any 31s or 41s, and when guys start to get tired they'll ride that 30.X for all it's worth though that only lasts for a few laps until they hit a 31 and are out. Out of 48 splits Rupp had 3 or 4 that were over 40.0 and 30.0 and every other split was under pace.

If you've ever run near 14:00 for 5K and tried this workout you can appreciate what he did. Most guys I know that were 13:50-14:10 guys didn't make it past 10 laps and were riding the 30.X-40.X for the last 2 or 3. To think that he could have gone on is mind boggling. I'm very interested to see where he'll stack up next year in Europe after several 5K's and 10K's. I expect him to stick on that lead group longer than any white boy or western citizen has in over a decade. I expect the E. Africans to be looking around at 7K & 8K and wondering who the hell is this toehead and what's he doing at our party?

Bling Bling and Benjamins wrote:

You mean like last year in the olympics? He was about a half lap behind right? That's cutting some distance off isn't it smarty pants? Do you think he isn't better than a year ago cutie pie?

Someone is getting flustered.

Lets see, he went from 11th in 2007 to 13th in 2008. Wow, at this rate of improvement he will get a medal in no time.

No.

lohalloran nailed this. The Africans have no idea who he is and don't care. It doesn't matter how the Worlds are run, Rupp has no chance against the Africans. He never will either. They are just in another catagory. Just look at the 5k at Olso this weekend. 10 Africans who have run under 13:00! One of these guys is going to finish 10th and noboby will even know that guys name. If Ethiopia and Kenya could send all there athletes to the Olympics or the Worlds, a guy like Galen wouldn't even finish in the top 30. In fact, if Eastern African nations were allowed to send as many athletes as they liked to both the Worlds and the Olympics the races would be much faster and much more tactical. There would be 5 or 10 guys desperate to get big money contracts and more race exposure. They would let the established guys control the races and slow them down. In a race like that Galen would probably get lapped. Galen is fast as hell and a great guy, but these are the facts.

eh. wrote:

o.O wrote:

Everyone has a chance to medal, but only 3 people will have the balls to get them.

Buster x3?

Exactly

snipr wrote:

Bling Bling and Benjamins wrote:

You mean like last year in the olympics? He was about a half lap behind right? That's cutting some distance off isn't it smarty pants? Do you think he isn't better than a year ago cutie pie?

Someone is getting flustered.

Lets see, he went from 11th in 2007 to 13th in 2008. Wow, at this rate of improvement he will get a medal in no time.

No need for getting flustered, I was trying to be cute at your level but that was probably lost without intonation or inflection on the message boards. I'm guessing your trolling since you skirted the issue of time and went for another angle to keep a good man down.

Regarding his progress from worlds 2007 to olympics 2008. Both were won in about 27:00. Rupp went from being 1:35 behind the winner in 2007 to 0:35 behind in 2008. That's a lot of improvement and for reference 0:35 seconds behind the leader in Osaka 2007 would have beaten out Gebre-egziabher Gebremariam of Ethiopia for 6th (who finished in 27:44.58). I think it's pretty fair and logical (hating and bias not clouding the judgement) to conclude that Rupp is a better and faster runner than last summer. How much? We don't know but it's safe to say it's a marked difference.

You brought up him being lapped in 2007 as if to suggest he still had over a minute of distance to make up in an international championship. Whay say you now?

Rupp has a GREAT Kick... there is no doubt about that. But Shalane also had one of the fastest times in the world going into that race AND a great kick. 53 seconds for closing is nothing for Bekele, Sihine or Kogo, or any of the other sub 27 runners. Rupp closed in 2:25 yes, but for a 14:06 5000. Bekele did that for a 12:57. Rupp still has some time before worlds though. If he busts a 10000 in 26:50-27:15 or sub 13:07 for 5k then I'll have ore faith.

I think the Africans who CAN run fast at worlds WILL. They know Shalane has kick now. And they know what happened when they went slow with Kara ( Not that Kara isn't Phenominal but they let her get away in that race.)

Its going to be 30:10 or faster for women and 26:50-30 for men. Thats my prediction

Fail. World Championship years always tend to be weaker than Olympic years (compare 2007 Worlds to 2008 Olympics.) As someone has already pointed out, Rupp improved on his 11th place 2007 finish by an amazing 60 seconds at the Olympics, only to finish 13th due to the quality of the field. Assuming this years field is comparable to 2007s, I think Rupp has a legit shot at finishing top 5.

The bigger question will be how well Rupp can maintain his fitness between now and August. In 2007, he seemed to burn out by the time Worlds came around, (He had a long NCAA season, as opposed to last year when he redshirted). What will this year be like? He's obviously in much better shape than he was in 2007. (No snipr, no)

And 2 seconds ahead of Forrest in the 10k at NCAAs, is that really all you could come up with? Anyone watching that race knows Rupp could have run significantly faster, but he was saving energy for next days victory in the 5k.

no way he gets TOP FIVE. lets see you have bekele, shihine, abdosh (if the damn federation picks him), masai, tadesse, shit thats five right there. What you seem to be ignoring is the fact that RUPP IS NOT RACING AGAINST SOME NCAA GUYS OR AMERICAN COMPETITION. These guys can run their second 5k faster than rupp can run one. And thats in a race. Your telling me that Rupp is sooo different that he can run 13:50 than run a 13:10-13:14 with a 53-55 sec last lap left in the tank. Thats what you need to be able to do to get in the top 5.

no way wrote:

no way he gets TOP FIVE. lets see you have bekele, shihine, abdosh (if the damn federation picks him), masai, tadesse, shit thats five right there. What you seem to be ignoring is the fact that RUPP IS NOT RACING AGAINST SOME NCAA GUYS OR AMERICAN COMPETITION. These guys can run their second 5k faster than rupp can run one. And thats in a race. Your telling me that Rupp is sooo different that he can run 13:50 than run a 13:10-13:14 with a 53-55 sec last lap left in the tank. Thats what you need to be able to do to get in the top 5.

While I agree top 5 is a huge goal, I wouldn't go so far as to say there is no way he could. As mentioned, he was 35 seconds off of 1st place last year in a race that had 6 (nearly 7) go under Geb's previous Olympic record. He is better now. If all 5 of those guys do what your saying they will on the day of the Berlin 10K, then his chances are slim. But if any one of them comes up short that day Rupp may not be that far off, and who knows. 13:50 for Rupp at this point is nothing. He basically ran 4 x 14:05 5K's at NCAA's within 46 hours (2 of which were consecutive in the 10K, one of which he stopped and fixed a shoe). This came after 2 consecutive championship meets in which he was running 3 races in 2 days. NCAA's was hot and humid, probably as bad or worse than Berlin will be. I honestly think he could run a 14:00 5K every day for 7 days in a row.

He has nearly 7 weeks left of just prep work with maybe one 3K or 5K. He'll be going into worlds more rested than he has been for any race in the last 7 months. 13:50 will be more than comfortable for him so it comes down to what he can close in. His 5K PR is not too indicative since it was set indoors but the guy he took to the wire went on to win Carlsbad and just recently ran 13:02 for 5K. On the conservative side Rupp is a 13:05-13:08 guy right now in a competitive race. If he comes through 13:50 at half I don't see any reason why he can't come back in 13:30 if not under 13:25.

Where would 27:15-27:20 have landed him in Osaka?

10,000 Metres - M Final

.27 august 2007 - 21:40Position Bib Athlete Country Mark .

1 531 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 27:05.90 (SB)

2 539 Sileshi Sihine ETH 27:09.03 .

3 776 Martin Irungu Mathathi KEN 27:12.17 .

4 499 Zersenay Tadese ERI 27:21.37

I expect Berlin to be a bit faster than Osaka, but I think Rupp can be in the top 1/3 of the finishers and in doing so beat some guys with impressive resumes.

Yeah I guess you have a point but thats IF one of them has a really off day and the pace is really slow. I wasn't saying rupp isn't able to go 13:50 for the first 5k (of course he is). The thing is that he needs to close 13:15-13:20 to really have a chance to medal instead of just HOPING one of those guys have a bad day. Here is how I see it. Rupp will cover the first 5k around 13:48-13:52 with the leaders then during the second half of the race, the pace will get faster and the leaders will close around 13:12-13:15 for the finish. Rupp will most likely close around 13:30-13:33 which will be like a 27:20-27:23 total time with an eigth place finish. Of cource if the pace is slower,(like the 2001 WCS 10K) he'll place much higher.

OK, heres 2 cents.

I think he can medal BUT not this year.

Rupp has had an amazing year, he is amazingly fit. But he may have already run himself out. How many races has he run?

4 outdoor 10kms already... that is more than anyone would run in a season, plus the 5 or 6 5kms and 1500's all those 8's and miles indoors.

He has been rolling hard since indoors.

You could argue that some of those races were very easy for Rupp so wouldn't take the same toll that 'tougher' races would, but I think when you are exhibiting the kind of kick and sharpness of speed that Rupp has of late you are exhibiting signs of peaking.

If Rupp can exceed expectations again at Berlin then Salazar is an absolute genius.