Rupp vs. Chelanga Strategy

I could see Chelanga going out in 2:36 with Rupp back with the leading pack in 2:40-2:42 but Rupp catching Chelanga by 5k (going through in 14:08). THe rest go through in 14:36. Chelanga and Rupp run neck and neck through 8k then they exchange surges over the last 2k, with Chelanga getting the victory by 3 seconds in 28:58. Fernandez runs conservitivly and saves his kick for too late and comes in third in 29:12, but does not look too tired. We all wonder what could have been. Derrick 7th and Puskedra 13th. Wheating has an off race but Oregons depth saves them. Oklahomas 5th man loses them the team title.

Team Results

Oregon 93

Ok State 103

Stanford 145

Alabama 165

Wisconsin 185

If the course is dry, your winning times are close.I believe Rupp can run faster than Chelanga over 10,000. He is the only one in this field that can run Terre Haute course under 29 for 10K XC.

Everything this guy said, except I think Chelanga will win by more and OK State will upset Oregon (I don't really think OKS will win, but I want them to)

Assuming the weather is decent and footing is o.k., my prediction is Chelanga goes out in 2:30 again, with Rupp back at 2:36 w/ half a dozen others (e.g., Tyson). The main pack is at 2:40. Rupp catches him at 5K but breaks him by 8k, extending his advantage to at least 10 seconds by the end of the race. 28:40 for the win. Fernandez takes 3rd and Oklahoma State takes down Oregon for the team title.

I don't think Chelanga will go through in 2:30, and the chase pack will likely not be that quick either. Pre-nats is for testing yourself and seeing what you can do with a different race plan. On the day of Chelanga's race the course was supposedly running slower, but maybe that was due to the fact that the pack came through the 1K mark at sub 2;40, which is still way too fast for most. I am still slightly surpised that Chelanga won by so much off of such a fast early pace, but maybe thats because he burned everyone off in that first 1K/mile. Everyone else died because they followed his hot early pace too closely...don't expect that to happen at Nationals, people on the top 5 teams (Rupp,German, Alabama Kenyans) will be running more conservitively.

Well, you may end up having called it correctly. I still think Chelanga will go with what worked for him at Pre Nats — a wicked fast early pace. He'll try to establish a gap and then maintain it. But what Rupp will do is more up in the air to me. It will be interesting to come back and revisit this after the race.

g.g.g wrote:

thinking back wrote:

Actually, Rupp has demonstrated that he has several tools.

I think you meant to say, "Rupp has demonstrated that he IS a tool".

No that's not what I meant.

To all the people who are starting to pick Oklahoma State for the win, can you provide some kind of feasable breakdown for this to happen? For example who from Oak St. can beat who from Oregon? Because right now I'm not convinced that Oregon couldn't go 1-2 on German, possibly even 1-2-3 if Shadrack can race to potential. Not saying it will happen, a lot of other scenarios could happen. If Chelenga flops and German hits a big one he could get 2nd, but it is not likely he is beating a storming Rupp. German seems to run his best when he's in front. His high school times were phenomenal, but I'm not convinced that they are a heck of a lot better than Rupp's 13:37 in high school. However I am convinced that the top American from the recent Olympic 10K is a lot faster than he was in high school.

If people haven't figured out yet, one thing you can count on from Vin is the team shows up with it's best at NCAA's. You can also usually count on one or two of their 3-5 men guys coming up REALLY big in the show. The biggest challenge for Vin is deciding who to leave on the sidelines.

Now Rupp is the favorite.

Calling out a blowhard wrote:

A bunch? Lets see some links?

Many. Actually, before the Trials, I can't remember anything but the several miles he ran. Not sure why you doubt this.

chelanga goes out in 2:30 w/ rest of pack in 2:40.

rupp breaks from the gap around 2k, and fernandez and several others go with him.

around 5k, chelanga has 10 sec lead with 14:05 and rupp and fernandez and others around 14:15

8k, chelanga has 5 sec lead from rupp and fernandez, and rupp and fernandez are looking strong with a 5 sec lead on the others.

last 800 of the race, rupp and fernandez have caught chelanga and the three are hauling ass trying to win the damn race. last 400 meters, fernandez and rupp are neck to neck sprinting while chelanga is dead. rupps memories from mcdougal cause him to lose and fernandez becomes ncaa champion.

Chelanga with roll through the first KM a 5-6 secs ahead of the front pack. Wasted energy considering Rupp has shown he can bridge gaps very easily.

By 3km it will be Chelanga/10sec gap/Rupp,McNeill, etc

By 5km it will be Rupp will be running a stride down from Chelanga, with chase epack 15 sec down

By 7km Chelanga is getting the wobbles after panicking during the last few kms and trying to repeat his first couple kms. Rupp is patient still a stride down.

By 8km Rupp drops hammer with something in the vicinity of 2.45km, Chelanga blows like africans who go out too hard/panick, sometimes do.

By 9km Rupp has 20sec on Chelanga (35sec on chasers) who is all but cooked.

Finish involves Rupp hammering home then deservedly celebrating in the last 200. Wins by 30sec. McNiell from NAU 2nd, Chelanga 5th/10th

Thats how its going to be.

You do realize that Chelanga could have run 4:50 pace for another 1.2M at Pre-Nats and broken 29:00, right?

"If the course is dry, your winning times are close.I believe Rupp can run faster than Chelanga over 10,000. He is the only one in this field that can run Terre Haute course under 29 for 10K XC."

dnixon wrote:

I then went and watched Chelanga's race on Flotrack. His kilometer splits were:

3k: 8:18 (2:50) / 4:34 pace

His 3K split at regionals was 8:12.

ncaa runner wrote:

chelanga goes out in 2:30 w/ rest of pack in 2:40.

rupp breaks from the gap around 2k, and fernandez and several others go with him.

around 5k, chelanga has 10 sec lead with 14:05 and rupp and fernandez and others around 14:15

8k, chelanga has 5 sec lead from rupp and fernandez, and rupp and fernandez are looking strong with a 5 sec lead on the others.

last 800 of the race, rupp and fernandez have caught chelanga and the three are hauling ass trying to win the damn race. last 400 meters, fernandez and rupp are neck to neck sprinting while chelanga is dead. rupps memories from mcdougal cause him to lose and fernandez becomes ncaa champion.

This is pretty funny. You do realize that Galen could have beaten German by nearly 150 meters for that 2 mile race last summer right? And despite German's great running, I'd actually argue that Rupp has made a bigger fitness bump than German since then. If German tries to run with Rupp at all when Rupp goes it's a huge mistake. If he tries to stick with Rupp as long as he can, it's goodbye German and goodbye Oak States chances for a win. German needs to be more mindful of trying to beat Oregon's #2 runner than their #1.

By the way, of the group of runners at West Regionals behind Rupp, Shadrack looked absolutely chill until the last 1K where he blew that group to pieces. He was instructing Puskedra, smiling and talking to his coaches during 90% of that race and then finally went. Considering that Luke, Derrick, Kipchumba & Kinsella all have very strong chances of top 15 finishes, Shadrack is looking really strong.

Except for Derrick who moved up slowly over the last 2K the rest of this group wall all together with 1K to go until Shadrack dropped the hammer and they ended like this:

2 Kiptoo-Biwott, Shadrack Oregon 28:32.31 2

3 Kipchumba, Alfred Portland 28:36.02 3

4 Kinsella, David Portland 28:43.88 4

5 Derrick, Chris Stanford 28:44.31 5

6 Puskedra, Luke Oregon 28:45.48 6

Luke probably could have finished better if he backed off a little earlier and didn't work with Shadrack on leading the chase pack between 4K-9K, but he risked running in no mans land.

I'd put Shadrack in for a top 5 finish, and if things go really well top 3. To me there is a much higher probability that Shadrack beats German, than German beats Rupp. In fact I say anyone of the boys above have a better shot a beating German than German's shot a Rupp.

45 degrees at racetime: advantage Rupp;

fUrCeOsNhN wrote:

I could see Chelanga going out in 2:36 with Rupp back with the leading pack in 2:40-2:42 but Rupp catching Chelanga by 5k (going through in 14:08). THe rest go through in 14:36. Chelanga and Rupp run neck and neck through 8k then they exchange surges over the last 2k, with Chelanga getting the victory by 3 seconds in 28:58. Fernandez runs conservitivly and saves his kick for too late and comes in third in 29:12, but does not look too tired. We all wonder what could have been. Derrick 7th and Puskedra 13th. Wheating has an off race but Oregons depth saves them. Oklahomas 5th man loses them the team title.

Team Results

Oregon 93

Ok State 103

Stanford 145

Alabama 165

Wisconsin 185

That's not far off from my predictions, except that I have OK State winning. I predict Fernandez for third, but not by running conservatively. He'll have to run the race of his freakin' life. There's a lot of top notch competition for the top 15.

Galen could not run 4:00/8:34 - let alone on the same day.....or alone for that matter - in HS. Had German continued on into the summer, and went to Europe, he probably could have run 13:37 too. You gotta think he could run 3 4:22s in a row being towed along.

"His high school times were phenomenal, but I'm not convinced that they are a heck of a lot better than Rupp's 13:37 in high school."

poooop wrote:

Galen could not run 4:00/8:34 - let alone on the same day.....or alone for that matter - in HS. Had German continued on into the summer, and went to Europe, he probably could have run 13:37 too. You gotta think he could run 3 4:22s in a row being towed along.

"His high school times were phenomenal, but I'm not convinced that they are a heck of a lot better than Rupp's 13:37 in high school."

for what it's worth, McMillan's equivalence calculator puts 8:34 = 4:00 and 13:54.

letsrun_frozen wrote:

45 degrees at racetime: advantage Rupp;

weather.com shows a 30% chance of showers on Sunday. If the course gets wet, will he even be allowed to run?