HOW TO BEAT BEKELE......

1) Can't outrun him on pace.

2) Can't kick with him off a fast pace.

3) CAN kick with him off a moderate to slow pace.

This is what we are dealing with in a "clean" race. El G showed us #3 is possible if you are reasonably close to him in 5k ability. You also need a miler's raw kicking speed... Bekele is pretty much maxed out at 53ish or so for a last lap, so you've got to be able to hit 52 or lower to have a shot at him, which El G did. Bekele's a great kicker, but not the greatest, and that is his weakness... He was kicking like a madman with his trademark 53 last lap in Athens, but El G mowed him down with his superior SPEED. So, we know Bekele can be beaten by a world record miler in a slower 5k. This means that the odds of beating him "cleanly" are slim to almost none, it took El G to do it, not many of him around. So... Let's get dirty...

Get into the guys head, make yourself visible before the race by being annoying. Get in the way of his strides, brush up against him a bit "accidentally" etc... There are a multitude of options here. Get talking to him when he is trying to focus. Annoy him a bit so that he recognizes you after the race starts, and the real fun begins. First off, if you are of El G's caliber, just follow him around and hope he stupidly relies on a last lap sprint with next to no buildup. Probably won't happen ever again, he learned from Athens.

So... MAKE him run a slow pace. Every time he goes to start his finishing drive, PASS him and instead of plunking back down into lane 1 on the rail, run really close to the line that starts lane 2. JUST ENOUGH TO MAKE HIM THINK HE CAN SQUEEZE BY YOU ON THE INSIDE. Tighten it up in the turns a bit though so you're not running too much extra distance. Give him a good look at the inside down the straights. If he bites, close the door and force him onto the brakes or off the track, being as subtle as possible about it. This is aggravating. DO NOT LET HIM PASS YOU ON THE STRAIGHTS. Make him do it in the turns around the outside for the extra distance, and this will aggravate him to no end. Easier said than done, but when he gets by you (eventually he will), try to pass him back (brushing shoulders as you go by), and just repeat the process, hoping it's taking more out of him than you (probably not, but it's worth a shot, the guy can't be beat otherwise). This just might tax him enough where you will have more kick than him on the last lap. You basically have to completely f*** up anything he has planned for, and I think this may do it. You obviously have to be reasonably close to him in 5k ability, and it also helps to have more kicking speed. Regardless, it will take a very talented runner to make even this oddball strategy work. This of course doesn't take into account the other runners, one of whom may just leave you two to your game and run off into the sunset... You can only block one person at any time. Odds of being successful against Bekele: Reasonable. Odds of being successful against Bekele, and all the other runners in the field: Not so reasonable. Obviously this is a one-time thing, reserved for the one Olympic final you intend to beat him.

Here are Bekele's 200m splits. Notice the major fluctuation in pace during the first 2000 meters:

200 29.8

400 38.2

600 34

800 27

1000 36.5

1200 31.5

1400 32

1600 30

1800 32

2000 31.3

2200 31.8*

2400 31.8*

2600 31.8*

2800 31.8*

3000 31.8*

3200 29.3

3400 29.4

3600 30.3

3800 31.4

4000 30.7

4200 30.5

4400 30

4600 31

4800 26.1

5000 27.8

*NBC showed long jump between 2100 and 2900 meters so I don't have those 200 splits. I estimated these based on average pace required to hit 8:01 at 3000 meters, the next known value.

How to beat Bekele:

Run 155 miles a week with the following workouts:

4x2k in 5 min followed by 3x400 in 49

10 mile tempo run in 45 minutes

10x800 in 1:51-1:49 followed by 2x200 in 23.5

Long run of 30 miles at 5:10/mile pace

20x400 in 53

After this training, you can take down Bekele!

Webb has the speed to do it, but he lacks the speed endurance. If Webb focused on his true event, the 5000m, he can be a world beater.

He has similar speed credentials as Daniel Komen, the 3rd fastest 5000m runner in history:

Komen: 3:45 mile

Webb: 3:46 mile

Komen: 3:29 1500m

Webb: 3:30 1500m

Komen: 1:45ish 800m

Webb: 1:43 800m

Komen: 7:58 2 mile

Webb: 8:11 2 mile

Komen: 12:39 5000m

Webb: 13:10 5000m

Komen: 27:38 10000m

Webb: 27:35 10000m

If Webb focuses on more speed endurance to hang on from 3000 meters to 5000 meters, then we'll have ourselves white version of 7:20-Komen.

I haven't given up on the Reston-based lad yet. I think when he moves to the 5000m for good he will light the track on fire with this 1:43 speed.

When has he been juiced? Prove it, Mr. Six Minute miler in mommy's basement.

666 wrote:

Bingo

http://www.masterstrack.com/movies/gerry24.mov

Take a look at this one:

Yes

comparisons... wrote:

If Bekele is so good then why is in only just barely faster then Geb? Would Geb be this dominant in his prime against Kipchoge ect?

comparisons... wrote:

If Bekele is so good then why is in only just barely faster then Geb? Would Geb be this dominant in his prime against Kipchoge ect?

Because Geb had many many more record attempts at 5k than Bekele has. Bekele is better than 12:37.

I agree those strategies will probably result in you losing still. But your odds to beat him are slightly better if you either make him run a) a SLOW pace (13:30+) and hold his kick until the last lap or two (seems like no matter the pace he WILL close in 53. if you can close in 51 off of 13:30 pace you might be able to beat him) or b) throw in some really erratic pacing or some other unconventional strategy and hope he isn't expecting/ready for it. IF YOU TRAIN TO BE ABLE TO HANDLE A 13:10 FARTLEK 5K you'll be more comfortable doing it and hopefully it'll throw BK out of his rhythm.

The point is that you're not going to beat him off of a moderate paced kicker's race or a blistering fast pace unless he has an off day, which rarely ever happens. You've got to get him in a slow kickers race or do something crazy if you want any chance to beat him. These aren't "SECRET TO BEAT BK: GUARANTEED!!" strategies, they just increase your chances IMO.

a 38, a 36 and a 34 and he still ran 12:57...jeez

one way to beat Bekele? become VERY comfortable running 30-31 second pace...because he clearly can