2:04:26 WILL be broken. 2:03 will not. ever.

Read my last post, I still believe my points are relevance to the discussion at hand, and I've laid out why (and yeah, I was sort of aware of the difference between the LJ and marathon).

Um, mocking my point out about Beamon, then saying my long post is full of arguments that have "no relevance whatsoever to the subject at hand" is rude actually. And why comment that my post is "based on speculation" when you then go ahead and counter it with....speculation?! That doesn't make much sense. That would be like me saying: "you are predicting Geb will win the Olympic gold in the marathon? Ha, that's nothing but speculation. Here's my speculation: he won't." Touche!

Is it just me, or do all British people literally sound gay pretty much whenever they open their mouths? Not that there's anything wrong with that...

for anyone thinking that the marathon is close to its limit (sir lance) i would just say at least wait until haile is retired and wanjiru has a good run (like a few years, i don't literally mean one good run) at the marathon. see if the record is still 2:04:26 or if its a good bit lower. if it is lowered by those two 2:03 might be broken if old bekele takes a shot at it like haile. if haile and wanjiru don't break the current WR and if bekele doesn't either then unlikely 2:03 will be broken any time soon, but ya never know when the next freak of running nature is gonna pop up and destory bekele and haile's records. i just don't think its the best time to say the WR progression will be slowing a lot when the record was just smashed by someone who will attempt to beat that a few more times and there are two other current likely candidates to go after the record in the next 10 years. but lance alot you are right you never know when a record is gonna prove to be lasting (like in the 800m...damn 1:41 is sick). but just with the current crop of elite runners out there i think haile's record is not safe and neither is 2:03.

hell, i know some people will laugh but even our boy Ryan Hall might prove something over the next 10 years. He's just recently discovered his marathoning potential and ran a good debut. i think its more likely he'll end up at 2:06something but ya never know. i'm starting to believe in americans again now that we are seeing a resurgance in everything from mid-distance up to the marathon. on that note the american 1500/newly minted mile and 2 mile/3k/5k/10k/half marathon records are all in alan, teg, lagat, and hall's sights (maybe a few other runners too). after those get taken down some more marathon is next up! go USA!! (and actually now that i think about it the 100/200/400 records might all be challenged by current athletes as well!)

an interesting thing to look at over the next few decades will be to watch how the top times, other than any possible record setters, progress in the marathon. a good number of people now run 2:07 and some run 2:06. well the record is now 2:04 and might be lowered to 2:03 in the next few years. will the rest of the top tier group of marathoners progress to running 2:05's or will they stay around 2:06/2:07? if the record continues to drop but outside of that the top guys still run in the 206/07 region then that should prove that our training/technology/whatever contributes to people getting faster isn't really helping us improve anymore and it's really only the total genetic freaks that pop up every once in a while that continue to move marathoning foward.

I skipped to this page so maybe somebody already said it, but it may take a physiological discovery and altering training methods. It seems like we know so much but there is always a new discovery in science. There is a limit but of course what variables can reach what end. How much harder can one train?

"I don't think the OP's contention that 2:03 won'tbe broken is as farfetched as some might think. Ok sure, it will likely be broken SOMEDAY....BUT...not for a very long time. Why?

Because what many of you are failing to recognize is that the far, far majority of sub 2:07 times ever run have been by runners of African descent done in the last 20 years, since the influx of African athletes EN MASSE (there was always a smattering) on the international athletics scene. These are the most naturally gifted distance athletes ever, they've made their stand, and we've seen from them as good as we will likely see for a very long time: Geb, Tergat, and Bekele. They've run mind-blowing 10k times ( in the case of Bekele, almost a minute faster than practically any runner of euro descent has), and now that two of the group have attacked the marathon, we've seen marathons run in the mid to high 2:04's. Now granted, neither was likely in their true peak when they ran these marathons (they waited until they were older), but I would say that if all 3 of these guys focused on marathons and ran them in their peaks, and battled each other, we would have seen no better than 2:03:30. And these are the best of the best, 100% peaked, 100% perfect conditions. I just really don't see runners much better than these guys coming along any time soon.

And.... a lot of you are talking about how all records are routinely smashed, and the progression of performances marches on and on and on, but wait! How many people have beaten Coe's 1:41 in over a QUARTER CENTURY, the 25 years that were the most drug fueled of all time maybe ? ONE ?! 800m times have gotten slower. How many people have beaten Beamon's LJ record in nearly 40 years?? A couple? How many jr's (LEGIT jr's ) have beaten Ryun's 3:51 mile and 1:44 800m times ? A few? All records are not just routinely being crushed. Many of them are remaining stagnant.

And in fact, if you look at NON-AFRICAN performances, many records are indeed fairly stagnant. Over 20 years ago, Steve Jones went out insanely fast and died a little to run 2:07:13, and a 38 y.o. Lopes ran 2:07:12. You don't think that if Jones paced himself a tad better, and if Lopes had focused on the marathon when he was a tad younger, we might have seen some 2:06:30's out of those two? It's very likely, and that was over 20 years ago. How many runners of non-African descent have run under 2:06:30 ? ONE ( a JPN runner). So how much have non-Africans been improving in the marathon?

So......summing up:

* European and non-African performances have been fairly stagnant in many distance events the last 25 years, despite the wide-spread use of PED's.

* The records in some events like the 800 or LJ have been fairly stagnant period

*In the marathon, the big improvement in times have been from the African runners mainly. And now they've had 20+ years of serious en masse international participation, and I think we've seen close to the best they have to offer.

Therefore, we may not see a 2:03 for a very, very long time, if at all."

Sir Lancea-lot speaks more sense then most people on 'letsrun', maybe all. Great point about the Africans getting close to their limits and the Europeans generally reaching there's 20-30 years ago.

Gebrselassie is 34 and is not going to run faster again (not that this will be a blight on his career!). He has the Dubai and Olympic marathons next year. He is not going to run 2:04 in any of those races. The following year he will be 36 and no longer capable of such a time.

Many people have made the seemingly valid point that many great track runners have only taken up the marathon at about the age of 30, therefore couldn't they run it faster if they took up the event at 20? There might be some improvement but I believe minimal as the marathon is a completely different event to racing 5/10,000m. It takes a different level of strength, strength which possibly only gets reached in a runners late 20's. I don't see teenagers potentially winning championship marathons like they have track finals just because they decide to focus on it.

It is easy to say that if Haile had run the marathon in '98 when he was a 26:22 10,000m runner, that he would run 2:02 for example. But he wouldn't because his training for his amazing track times would be a little different to his marathon training. His marathon training helps his marathon strength but will lose him a bit of his speed. It's unlikely that you will see an athlete at his marathon peak and track distance running peak at the same time.

After all of that I'll say that 2:03 will be broken, but not for at least 15 years. We don't have enough runners going sub 2:06 yet.

Not to change the subject slightly, but I really think Paula Radcliffe's 2:15 is the women's 2:03! Has any woman come close to that??

I think the same will be true when somebody does run 2:03 in the next few years (I'm really convinced that Samuel Wanjiru of Kenya and Z. Tadesse from Eritrea can both run that time) that no other man will come close to it for a while. But...it will happen soon, when Wanjiru and Tadesse and possibly even S. Sihine begin to focus on the marathon. That's my verdict and I'm sticking with it.

And to the poster that said Haile G. has no speed because he's training for the marathon, notice he ran 26:52 this past summer:)

SVC wrote:

Is it just me, or do all British people literally sound gay pretty much whenever they open their mouths? Not that there's anything wrong with that...

i think hear what you want to hear. dont be ashamed

there is not the depth of good runners in the womens events as their is in the mens, i think the 215 will be broken by a girl before 203 is broke by a man. probably by werknesh kidane, i dont think even z. tadesse or sihine or wanjiru will break 203.

Just one point I want to reiterate from my OP: When Haile has set a WR in the past, he has established marks which have been very hard to surpass. When indeed his marks were surpassed, it was only be very small margins. The fact that the subsequent improvements have been so small, whether by Geb himself or others, would tend to reflect performances approaching the greater overall limits.

the fact that the progression has gone like this-

2:05:38 Khalid Khannouchi 4/14/2002

2:04:55 Paul Tergat 9/28/2003

2:04:26 Haile Gebrselassie 9/30/2007

that is 43 seconds, and 29 seconds in bettering the world record.

you don't break the best mark by half a minute and the say "that's it, it won't be broken again."

When the record improves by only a second or two in 20 years, or any other long period of time, then we are POSSIBLY approaching our limits.

ALSO, look at the fact that 2:07 has been broken 56 times now.

If we were reaching our limits, there wouldn't be that many people 2 and half minutes from the record.

Where the difference from just plain fast, and the greatest ever could be simply a headwind or poor hydration.

then, others have talked of the kenyan/ethiopian dominance, yet they easily forget that Ronaldo da Costa is the 6th fastest marathoner ever.

it's all about the training.

(don't try and say "it's all genetics" or any of that when a Brazilian can run that fast)

anyone know what the general range for weekly mileage is of elite marathoners (we'll say sub 2:10)? i was just wondering after i saw haile was running i think a little over 150 miles a week in preparation for berlin.do you think most are like 100-120. or is it more like what haile has been doing like 140-180?

2:00 WILL be broken, but certainly not in our lifetime or the forseeable future. Many, many years from now we will have gained enough understanding of the human genome and genetic engineering to create super-humans, unbound by the current limitations of our own DNA. We will figure out how to modify and enhance genes that code for almost every biological function, leading to athletes with artificially enhanced capabilities. Athletes will be able to train harder and longer, their bodies repairing and building new tissue at an unnaturally fast rate. Cells will live longer and be more resistant damage. The human body will become more durable, enabling athletes to train well into their 40s at an elite level. Look at Geb, if his body could take another 10 years of this training and continue to handle the distance and speed without wearing down, I wouldnt be surprised to see him break 2:03. I do feel that 2:02 or so is realistically approaching the theoretical limitations of our current bodies.

Evolution has been working for thousands and thousands of years to give the africans their advantadge, and I highly doubt that we will see a random genetic "freak" in the near future capable of breaking 2 hours. Eventually it will become a necessity to become genetically enhanced to remain even competetive, and detecting enhancements in a persons genome isnt the same as say testing for synthetic EPO.

In reality, the absolute limits of the human body will be set by genetic engineers, not by how hard a person trains, or how motivated they are or what drugs they take, etc. Of course these things will be vitally important for an athletes success, but having an underlying genetic advantadge will be the factor that will separate the elites from the "normal" humans. Keep in mind these future super athletes will still be fully human, who have simply managed to perfect what nature began. Who knows what the limiations of these people will be? 1:55? 1:45? It is impossible to predict.

Geb himself said he thinks that a man will go under 2:00 for the marathon in the next 20 to 40 years. But of course I trust MarathonMind far more than the G.O.A.T Geb.

After all sub 2:03 just seems too fast.

yo wrote:

anyone know what the general range for weekly mileage is of elite marathoners (we'll say sub 2:10)? i was just wondering after i saw haile was running i think a little over 150 miles a week in preparation for berlin.do you think most are like 100-120. or is it more like what haile has been doing like 140-180?

I've seen anywhere from 100-200 in recent years.

110-140 is where I'd say most fall.

Haile doesn't have no speed because he's training for the marathon, just a little less. Perhaps 26:52 would have been 10-15 seconds faster if the Hengelo race had been his main focus.