Ritz Marathon Predictions

man your thick...please keep posting...this is why i come here.

Malmo: just a thought, the names are of variable length and the time data are almost perfectly alingned. Thus, if you take an atypical approach of putting the data first and then the person the message would be easier to read. (And the focus is not so much on 'who' but 'what'.)

I do not think it likely that Ritz will break 2:10 at NYC (maybe Chicago), but if he did it would be great. It also would be a breakout year for the Ritz/Teg duo with PRs ranging from 3:35/7:34/13:04/27:37/1:01+/2:10? This would start to really fulfill the promise from the World XC Junior race 3rd/5th places behind Bek.

Malmo--Given the splits you've kindly provided from the 2006 NYCM, something interesting (at least I hope it is) occurs to me. Most of the top guys from last year will be back this year, with the addition, amongst a few other elite runners, of Ritz. The race last year went out in a half-marathon time that would seem to be ideal for Ritz (in his first marathon): fast enough to run a fast time; slow enough not to blow up. Is there any reason to think that a 1:04 plus split will not be replicated at this year's race?

altruistic huboon wrote:

I have a slightly different opinion:

I don't get the track focus thing. That philosophy is what keeps most of our talented marathoners out of the game too long.

You don't lose focus on track by running a fall marathon (hell, even a spring marathon). The targeted, high end aerobic training/mileage needed for a successful marathon only helps that athlete for track. All roads lead back to Lydiard anyone?

Focusing on track is what kept Ritz on injured reserves and Hudson (smarter than most on these boards think) recogized that straight away.

That is incorrect. Most people loose their track sharpness after a few years in the marathon. If Geb or Tergat would try a track comeback now, they would be nowhere near their PB:s. Look at Paula in Helsinki. She was not exactly a contender in 10 000, but won the marathon easily.

dude13 wrote:

If he paces himself like Röthlin last year, ignoring the bursts: 2:12

if he goes with the leaders: 2:16 or DNF

I'll go with that.

If he will finishes it will be luck. May be 2:12.50 +/-30 seconds.

Half marathon and Marathon are two different things men. I have an uncle who has run 59.43 in half, and beleive me or not this is not his first half, but still he cant feature well in full. keep my words.

26mi235 wrote:

Malmo: just a thought, the names are of variable length and the time data are almost perfectly alingned. Thus, if you take an atypical approach of putting the data first and then the person the message would be easier to read. (And the focus is not so much on 'who' but 'what'.)

As you might have noticed over the years, when I post tables I normally do just that. Since you've requested a repost, here goes:

2005

1 2:09:30 1:04:57 1:04:33 (0:00:24) M36 PAUL TERGAT Kenya

2 2:09:31 1:04:57 1:04:34 (0:00:23) M33 HENDRICK RAMAALA South Africa

3 2:09:56 1:04:57 1:04:59 0:00:02 M30 MEB KEFLEZIGHI

4 2:11:01 1:04:57 1:06:04 0:01:07 M27 ROBERT KIPKOECH CHERUIYOT Kenya

5 2:11:24 1:04:58 1:06:26 0:01:28 M27 ABDIHAKIM ABDIRAHAM

6 2:11:33 1:04:57 1:06:36 0:01:39 M31 ALBERICO DI CECCO Italy

7 2:11:44 1:04:57 1:06:47 0:01:50 M31 VIKTOR ROETHLIN Switzerland

8 2:13:19 1:04:58 1:08:21 0:03:23 M26 SIMON WANGAI Kenya

9 2:13:29 1:05:52 1:07:37 0:01:45 M34 JON BROWN GREAT BRITAIN

10 2:14:21 1:04:58 1:09:23 0:04:25 M24 ISAAC MACHARIA Kenya

11 2:14:28 1:06:45 1:07:43 0:00:58 M28 MATT DOWNIN

12 2:14:59 1:06:44 1:08:15 0:01:31 M27 JAMES KIBOCHA THEURY Kenya

13 2:15:05 1:06:46 1:08:19 0:01:33 M33 JOHN HENWOOD New Zealand

14 2:15:24 1:04:57 1:10:27 0:05:30 M27 ROBERT CHEBOROR Kenya

15 2:15:34 1:04:58 1:10:36 0:05:38 M28 CHRISTOPHER CHEBOIBOCH Kenya

16 2:15:35 1:05:00 1:10:35 0:05:35 M34 MARK SAINA Kenya

17 2:16:39 1:06:49 1:09:50 0:03:01 M28 PETE GILMORE

18 2:17:14 1:05:52 1:11:22 0:05:30 M26 RYAN SHAY

19 2:18:58 1:07:48 1:11:10 0:03:22 M22 KASSAHUN KABISO

20 2:20:40 1:04:58 1:15:42 0:10:44 M35 ANTONI PENA Spain

21 2:20:59 1:06:52 1:14:07 0:07:15 M33 NORIAKI IGARASHI Japan

22 2:21:15 1:07:51 1:13:24 0:05:33 M31 VITO SARDELLA Italy

23 2:22:36 1:08:57 1:13:39 0:04:42 M28 STEVE MORENO

24 2:24:25 1:10:20 1:14:05 0:03:45 M25 BARRY KEEM Australia

27 2:24:55 1:10:20 1:14:35 0:04:15 M41 JOSE RAMON TORRES Spain

30 2:25:32 1:06:29 1:19:03 0:12:34 M33 ABRAHAM ASSEFA

31 2:26:22 1:13:21 1:13:01 (0:00:20) M37 OREST BABYAK

32 2:26:51 1:12:23 1:14:28 0:02:05 M40 MANUEL ANTA SPAIN

33 2:26:56 1:11:23 1:15:33 0:04:10 M31 JONAS BUUD SWEDEN

34 2:26:58 1:12:41 1:14:17 0:01:36 M42 PEDER TROLDBORG Denmark

37 2:27:34 1:09:48 1:17:46 0:07:58 M30 RETTA FEYISSA

39 2:27:40 1:10:51 1:16:49 0:05:58 M39 JORGE AUBESO Spain

41 2:28:05 1:12:25 1:15:40 0:03:15 M39 ADRIANO PINAMONTI ITALY

43 2:28:19 1:12:47 1:15:32 0:02:45 M32 ALEXANDER BELAVIN

45 2:28:29 1:12:36 1:15:53 0:03:17 M34 FRANCISCO DEL OLMO SPAIN

46 2:28:44 1:12:27 1:16:17 0:03:50 M35 ESTEBAN VANEGAS

49 2:29:38 1:11:56 1:17:42 0:05:46 M28 TOM KLOOS

50 2:29:42 1:11:15 1:18:27 0:07:12 M41 PHILIPPE REMOND FRANCE

51 2:29:47 1:12:42 1:17:05 0:04:23 M34 HERMANN ACHMULLER ITALY

52 2:31:24 1:11:36 1:19:48 0:08:12 M31 MASSIMILIANO SANTANGELO ITALY

53 2:31:40 1:13:47 1:17:53 0:04:06 M24 DAVID NASH

54 2:32:26 1:12:57 1:19:29 0:06:32 M23 WILL BOYLAN-PETT

56 2:32:43 1:13:11 1:19:32 0:06:21 M24 JOHN TRAUGOTT

57 2:33:13 1:12:38 1:20:35 0:07:57 M32 ROY FAHY IRELAND

59 2:33:25 1:11:35 1:21:50 0:10:15 M40 DAN HELD

60 2:33:25 1:15:38 1:17:47 0:02:09 M24 EVAN GRAVES

62 2:33:50 1:12:31 1:21:19 0:08:48 M32 ARSENIO ORTIZ

63 2:33:57 1:13:49 1:20:08 0:06:19 M42 CHRISTIAN JOCHER ITALY

65 2:34:07 1:11:41 1:22:26 0:10:45 M34 GILBERT VALADE FRANCE

66 2:34:38 1:12:54 1:21:44 0:08:50 M35 TODD STEVENS New Zealand

Malmo, looking at the top 15 in that race it doesn't really look like people slowed down all tht much - aside from four people who got banged up and ran 3-5min slower in the last half, most of the field either negative split or ran the last half only about 90sec slower than the first. Doesn't seem that NYC is that bad when people go out in 1:04ish.

OK, I'll go out on a limb and make a prediction here. My track record as of late on predictions are pretty good. I said Geb would run 2:05:58 and he did 2:05:56 and I said Ritz would run a 1:01:18 last week and he did a 1:01:23 (or was it vice versa?)

This is a hard one to predict. Ritz has shown good promise this year running a couple of sub 28:00 and sub 13:30 to go along with a nice half marathon debut. But we still have the unknown of a first time marathoner who plans to put his nose into the mix. I'm reminded of Carlos Lopez's debut at NYC in 1982. He stayed with Salazar and Gomez until 21 miles then blew-up. Similarly Bob Kennedy stayed in it until the mid-late stages then blew-up in his initial attempt.

I'd feel more confident in putting a 2:10 or 2:11 prediction up for him if I thought he'd plan to run a more conservative paced race (like Abdi last year). So I'm torn between a 2:09/2:10 top 3 or 4 finish if he can pull it off or a 2:13/2:14 if he blows up at 22 and stumbles in.

Personally I have my doubts about Ritz and the marathon, but if he's as mentally tough as everyone tells me he is and if Hudson's close to being right about his potential at the distance I'll go with a 2:10:06 debut for him at NYC this November, thinking the winning time will be 2:08 high or 2:09 low and he'll stay with them to 23-24 miles and then hold on for a top 3/5 finish.

That's 2:10:06 for Ritz for those handicappers in Vegas.

The big question will then be if 3 or 4 out of KK, Abdi, Meb, Sell and Culpeper run faster times this fall then Ritz, will he take his shot at the marathon trials or focus on the 5/10k. Although a Fall 07 trials does allow for him to take a shot at it and then do the 5k/10k thing if it doesn't workout.

The marathon trails could shape up to be a very competitive race. We'll know more in 2 months.

derts wrote: Doesn't seem that NYC is that bad when people go out in 1:04ish.

MTH wrote:I'm reminded of Carlos Lopez's debut at NYC in 1982. He stayed with Salazar and Gomez until 21 miles then blew-up.

Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't Carlos the last guy with Salazar & Gomez. Then at around 21-22 miles Gomez opened a small gap on Salazar (momentarily) and Lopez fell way back.

It been a few years but that is my memory. But I may have it wrong. I'll defer to you if you are certain.

I'm not certain, but I did have a front row seat. I remember Lopes showing signs he was going out the back door at any moment. Perhaps he was up there and I missed it in the delerium.

I have the race on tape somewhere. If I find it I'll let you know.

malmo wrote:

derts wrote: Doesn't seem that NYC is that bad when people go out in 1:04ish.

1:05ish

then what do the splits look like when they go out in 1:04? that was your original point right?

Is 1:04:57 closer to 1:04 or 1:05?

closer to 1:05. so i am confused why malmo posted them in the first place when he has been talking about a 1:04 opener all the time.

2:07:56

MTH wrote:

Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't Carlos the last guy with Salazar & Gomez. Then at around 21-22 miles Gomez opened a small gap on Salazar (momentarily) and Lopez fell way back.

Going to video review, the judges agree you are correct. Salazar, Gomez, Murphy and Lopes were together at 20. Murphy dropped off before the 21 mile mark, then all hell must have broken loose on Lopes legs before Marcus Garvey Park, because he had fallen back to 4th or 5th with Murphy, then eventually DNF's. Schlesinger, meanwhile, was pouring it on. He moved into 3rd at Marcus Garvey. FWIW, I was a steady 6th at that point, moving to 5th when Lopes dropped, then fading badly over the last mile with both Marczak and Raunig running right over me. Like I said, I was delirious. I always thought it was Murphy and Raunig who passed me at the end.

New York is not the easiest marathon. I would assume he had some financial motivations for his debut here.

I would think anything under 2:14, or even 2:15 would be a good start for his marathon career. Many runners need 4 or 5 marathons to start to figure out this distance.

The big question is - Will he run his own race or try to hang with the lead pack?

Although he may physically be capable of sub 2:10 I doubt that he will do that for a debut at NY. Lets hope he does not over extend himself so much that he ends up with a poor performance.

He is after all a rookie at this distance dispite is ability level.