That run by Foster was a big deal back in the day. Good point about age. Strange he would compare a 1500m man with a marathoner. For what it’s worth it wouldn’t be surprising if Phanuel was found to be 23 or 24 right now. The Kenyans have been pulling age group shenanigans for decades. Nothing new.
Well I think we agree that drugs like EPO work right? That hasn't been in dispute.
My point was that, yes, and that the increased AIU testing led to a decline of top Kenyan performances at the very top. Not just concerning the NRs, but also when you look at the top 10 etc as I demonstrated for the steeple that you brought up. That the best Kenyan steepler from the 2020s is only the 14th best Kenyan is quite an eye opener, don't you think?
Banning stars—like Kiprop (3:26) or Manangoi (world champ) or Kandie (WR) or Kipruto (sub-58) or Ekiru (2:02) or Anyango (sub-29) or Chepngetich (2:09)—doesn't just remove those (for a few years), but also scares others into doping less.
That some European NRs still exist from the early 80s (no out-of-competition tests whatsoever, plus legal blood transfusions, own federation in charge - remember USATF's cover ups? ), supports the point that testing matters imho, just like your examples with Spain and North Africa.
The ABP had only a minor impact in Kenya, because blood testing in Kenya remained practically non-existent before the AIU.
Why do you argue with me? Serious question. Do you not agree that the increased AIU testing led to a decline of top Kenyan performances at the very top?
Whatever you say you can't deny the superiority of East African.
Stop this hautain attitude of lessons givers.
Just look at the success of East African when they have the same favorable conditions asz your athletes:
Mo Farah and Sifan Hassan are good examples
From google
Kenya GDP =110 Billions $$
UK GDP = 3640 Billions $$
since the two countries have almost the same population this is a good comparison.
This last factor is way more important than any doping argument.
You don’t understand the malignant hate behind much of the push for third world peoples into Europe and the US.
Lagat was a doper. Like most Kenyans. As for GDP, you need to seriously take a look at why Kenya lags, and what internal problems lead the country to such under-achievement. After all, Africa has more resources than Europe or Asia in general. Probably many of the same issues that lead to compulsive, pervasive cheating are what keep you back economically etc.
You don’t understand the malignant hate behind much of the push for third world peoples into Europe and the US.
Lagat was a doper. Like most Kenyans. As for GDP, you need to seriously take a look at why Kenya lags, and what internal problems lead the country to such under-achievement. After all, Africa has more resources than Europe or Asia in general. Probably many of the same issues that lead to compulsive, pervasive cheating are what keep you back economically etc.
Did you know that human cavillation started in the Green Crescent? (current Syria region). Its there where human learned the first time about agriculture.
The notion of Books and human laws started in Mesopotamia (current Iraq region).
The 4th pharaon dynasty collapsed because of a change of climat in Earth.
We come here to the most important factor, drought and aridity. This is what is making the apocalypse of this continent called Africa.
Dont laugh in my face by saying "because we are more clever" we reached this state. You are tool and your civilization is a tool in hands of the nature evolution.
I'm not sure if you know how this works. Everyone has EPO in their system, the body produces it. Injection of Synthesized EPO is not detectable, which is why the ABP system was used. To detect an unusual increase over time.
Not to defend the guy, but I'd be curious to know how much his hemoglobin level increased, and also what is the accepted standard on a normal increase due to the effects of altitude training and iron supplements.
Well, look at age of the Kenyan National Records. And remember that we are now in the superspikes era, where everyone should get faster. Event 800 1500 3000 5000 10000 3000-steeple NR 2012 2001 1999 1997 1997 2011
Vast majority pre-ABP, during the EPO heydays. Not a single record in men's track events since the AIU was created. That is a whopping 6 : 0!
Wanna look at the road? Clearly the supershoes have a larger effect there, because of the larger stack height. Regardless, their best HM times are from 2020 (Kandie + Kipruto), and both are banned now LOL.
Marathon? Best time from 2023, yes, but by Kiptum who wasn't long enough in the system to get banned for ABP violations (see Koech and Kipruto). Kiptum ran 2:00, and none of the currently active Kenyans have broken 2:02.
Recall that the supershoes keep improving too. Hmmmm....
The lack of Kenyan depth at the top is consistent with money drying up on the track around 2010, when the then IAAF made the transition from the Golden League to the Diamond League, and many of the best Kenyan athletes began looking for money on the roads.
Applying the same metrics to the roads, we see huge progress from the Kenyans post-ABP and post-AIU creation:
In the men's marathon, the pre-AIU record was 2:02:57 from Dennis Kimetto. Pre-ABP it was Duncan Kibet and James Kwambai with 2:04:27. After the creation of the AIU, Kimetto ranks #7, and Kibet/Kwambai have dropped to #30. The Kenyan record is more than 2 minutes faster with Kiptum's 2:00:35, followed by Kipchoge's 2:01:09.
In the men's semi-marathon, the pre-AIU, and pre-ABP, record was Sammy Wanjiru's 58:33. Now he is #14, with 13 Kenyans running faster after the creation of the AIU, led by Kandie's 57:32.
Looking at the women's marathon, the pre-ABP record was Catherine Ndereba's 2:18:47 from 2001, and the pre-AIU record was Mary Keitany's 2:18:37, with Ndereba still #2. Since the creation of the AIU, Catherine Ndereba is #16. Mary Keitany's time would be below #15 but she, along with 14 other Kenyan women, improved post-AIU creation.
Similarly in the women's half-marathon, pre-ABP was Mary Keitany's 1:06:36, and pre-AIU was Florence Kiplagat's 1:05:09. Now Florence Kiplagat is #18, and Mary Keitany would be #52 (if she hadn't run faster post-AIU creation).
I'm not sure if you know how this works. Everyone has EPO in their system, the body produces it. Injection of Synthesized EPO is not detectable, which is why the ABP system was used. To detect an unusual increase over time.
Not to defend the guy, but I'd be curious to know how much his hemoglobin level increased, and also what is the accepted standard on a normal increase due to the effects of altitude training and iron supplements.
Thanks rekrunner, but you're wrong.
Another case of mistaken identity -- that was not me. Don't worry -- you are not the first or only one.
In any case, I know synthetic EPO is detectable, for a short time in urine, and I know how much his hemoglobin increased, according to the AIU report, and what the accepted standard is.
You don’t understand the malignant hate behind much of the push for third world peoples into Europe and the US.
Lagat was a doper. Like most Kenyans. As for GDP, you need to seriously take a look at why Kenya lags, and what internal problems lead the country to such under-achievement. After all, Africa has more resources than Europe or Asia in general. Probably many of the same issues that lead to compulsive, pervasive cheating are what keep you back economically etc.
In addition to "internal problems", we cannot overlook the role of exploitation by external actors and countries, and their interest in African resources.
You don’t understand the malignant hate behind much of the push for third world peoples into Europe and the US.
Lagat was a doper. Like most Kenyans. As for GDP, you need to seriously take a look at why Kenya lags, and what internal problems lead the country to such under-achievement. After all, Africa has more resources than Europe or Asia in general. Probably many of the same issues that lead to compulsive, pervasive cheating are what keep you back economically etc.
Did you know that human cavillation started in the Green Crescent? (current Syria region). Its there where human learned the first time about agriculture.
The notion of Books and human laws started in Mesopotamia (current Iraq region).
The 4th pharaon dynasty collapsed because of a change of climat in Earth.
We come here to the most important factor, drought and aridity. This is what is making the apocalypse of this continent called Africa.
Dont laugh in my face by saying "because we are more clever" we reached this state. You are tool and your civilization is a tool in hands of the nature evolution.
Look up “cavillation” and get back to us. Many things started in many areas of the world. It’s what people did with those things that matters in terms of progress. Think about that. Think about cleverness. Now other clever people are roaming your motherland.
Yes at the very top on the men’s side in the steeple, 5,000 and maybe 10,000 (rarely run). But your phrasing of “top Kenyan performances at the very top” gets at what I’m arguing. You are talking about singular performances. In every event but the men’s steeple, Kenya is actually deeper I suspect.
OK, let's look at the 1500 next. You don't see the same effect there?
I only looked at no. 1 for simplicity. Let's go deeper. The top 10 are from, in that order:
Back in the 90's it was assumed they had a genetic advantage,because theyre so good,so numerous,and they train at high altitude. Now kenya is a byword for doping,and eventually ethiopia will be as well. They are still very talented,still very numerous,and they still churn out the runners like an endless production line. Not much has changed.The sad thing about endless talent,and endless doping,is that everyone else has to dope just to be in with a chance to compete with them.
East African performances have declined intrinsically, but it's been masked by the fact that they are in super shoes and taking bicarb as well.
Top superspikes/AIU runners are number 1+2 (no. 3 is Lagat...), 4 of the top 5 and 6 of the top 10 are from the superspikes era.
Do you know see a tendency?
The tendency is the predictable result when Kenya sends fewer people to the track, as the money dried up sometime around 2010.
The younger East African athletes (Kenya and Ethiopia) are skipping the track and going straight to the roads, where the records have continued to drop, post-ABP and post-AIU testing.
Those definitely screw up the lists, as only a few of them got their PRs stricken from the books.
Which Kimutai was banned? Kennedy Kumatai ran 58:28, but I didn't find that he was banned. It would be less ambiguous if you included full names. (Also useful if you listed what they were banned for, and even better, when that was with respect to their record times. For example, are Kipsang's whereabouts failures reasonably connected to his marathon performance?)
If we talk about the top athletes, as you did earlier, where should we draw the line? Only 4 athletes in each group (assuming Kimutai was banned) ran faster than pre-ABP times. The rest of these athletes below that line aren't really screwing up the lists at the top.
Your suggestion that testing is having a deterrent effect ("scares others into doping less") is not well supported. There was a study on IAAF World Championship athletes which looked at 2011 versus 2013 blood doping estimates, predicting that the ABP would deter blood doping, but their data didn't support it.
Similarly with AIU testing, it just seems that the increased testing with a focus on Kenya along with other Category A countries, is just catching more Kenyans, also through whereabouts failures, not supporting any suggested deterrent effect. Doubling the athletes tested has just doubled the number of athletes busted.
Kimutai? Strike that, I didn't realized Google AI included him in the list for no good reason:
57:32 – Kibiwott Kandie (2020 Valencia). The former world record holder was provisionally suspended in March 2025 for evading, refusing, or failing to submit to sample collection. 57:49 – Rhonex Kipruto (2020 Valencia). Serving a six-year ban until May 2029 due to irregularities in his Athlete Biological Passport (ABP). 58:10 – Abraham Kiptum (2018 Valencia). Received a four-year ban in 2019 for ABP violations; his world record time was subsequently nullified. 58:28 – Kennedy Kimutai (2021 Valencia). While he maintains elite marks, he is often included in discussions regarding the high volume of suspensions in the Kenyan road-running scene. 58:45 – Benard Kibet Koech (2023 Ras Al Khaimah). A 2024 Olympic finalist handed a four-year ban in February 2026 following ABP discrepancies. 58:48 – Sammy Kitwara (2011 Philadelphia). The veteran was banned for 16 months in 2019 after testing positive for Terbutaline. 58:52 – Kenneth Kiprop Renju (2022 Prague). Handed a five-year ban in late 2022 for the use of the prohibited steroid Methasterone. 59:17 – Philemon Kacheran (2021 Valencia). Banned for three years in 2022 for exogenous testosterone
That list also tells you what they were banned for: mostly classic blood doping (ABP) and steroids.
BTW I find that list utterly frustrating and maddening. But you are different, go readily and predictably into your downplaying and deflecting mode. World record holder Kandie and the 2nd best ever Kipruto - also 10k world record holder (fortunately DQ'd) - and world record holder A. Kiptum got banned! You: "Only 4 athletes in each group (assuming Kimutai was banned) ran faster than pre-ABP times." To each their own, I guess.
I also don't buy that the Kenyan's 1500 is more impacted by the tendency to move earlier to the marathon than by the banning of, e.g. Olympic Champ and triple World Champ Kiprop and World Champ Manangoi and 800 m World U20 Champ Bett. Typically 1500 stars don't do well in the marathon. Most don't even try (El G, Kiprop), and those who do don't excel (Lagat).
Kimutai? Strike that, I didn't realized Google AI included him in the list for no good reason:
57:32 – Kibiwott Kandie (2020 Valencia). The former world record holder was provisionally suspended in March 2025 for evading, refusing, or failing to submit to sample collection. 57:49 – Rhonex Kipruto (2020 Valencia). Serving a six-year ban until May 2029 due to irregularities in his Athlete Biological Passport (ABP). 58:10 – Abraham Kiptum (2018 Valencia). Received a four-year ban in 2019 for ABP violations; his world record time was subsequently nullified. 58:28 – Kennedy Kimutai (2021 Valencia). While he maintains elite marks, he is often included in discussions regarding the high volume of suspensions in the Kenyan road-running scene. 58:45 – Benard Kibet Koech (2023 Ras Al Khaimah). A 2024 Olympic finalist handed a four-year ban in February 2026 following ABP discrepancies. 58:48 – Sammy Kitwara (2011 Philadelphia). The veteran was banned for 16 months in 2019 after testing positive for Terbutaline. 58:52 – Kenneth Kiprop Renju (2022 Prague). Handed a five-year ban in late 2022 for the use of the prohibited steroid Methasterone. 59:17 – Philemon Kacheran (2021 Valencia). Banned for three years in 2022 for exogenous testosterone
That list also tells you what they were banned for: mostly classic blood doping (ABP) and steroids.
Thanks for the rapid response -- yes you should always be careful when using AI generated responses.
I did find several other Kimutais were banned, but not this Kennedy Kimutai. I also found two Kennedy Kimutais. Reminds me of the time that 3 out of the 4 Robert Cheruiyots ran the Boston Marathon, or that there are 2 Daniel Komens who ran 3:29s in the 1500m.
Your suggestion that testing is having a deterrent effect ("scares others into doping less") is not well supported. There was a study on IAAF World Championship athletes which looked at 2011 versus 2013 blood doping estimates, predicting that the ABP would deter blood doping, but their data didn't support it.
Last but not least: I did not say "testing is having a deterrent effect", I said:
"Banning stars—like Kiprop (3:26) or Manangoi (world champ) or Kandie (WR) or Kipruto (sub-58) or Ekiru (2:02) or Anyango (sub-29) or Chepngetich (2:09)—doesn't just remove those (for a few years), but also scares others into doping less."
Which stars were banned between the IAAF World Championships in 2011 and 2013? How did the study determine whether which athletes doped less? Link?
BTW I find that list utterly frustrating and maddening. But you are different, go readily and predictably into your downplaying and deflecting mode. World record holder Kandie and the 2nd best ever Kipruto - also 10k world record holder (fortunately DQ'd) - and world record holder A. Kiptum got banned! You: "Only 4 athletes in each group (assuming Kimutai was banned) ran faster than pre-ABP times." To each their own, I guess.
I also don't buy that the Kenyan's 1500 is more impacted by the tendency to move earlier to the marathon than by the banning of, e.g. Olympic Champ and triple World Champ Kiprop and World Champ Manangoi and 800 m World U20 Champ Bett. Typically 1500 stars don't do well in the marathon. Most don't even try (El G, Kiprop), and those who do don't excel (Lagat).
Sure, these lists are frustrating and maddening, and sure, we are different.
I was only commenting on what you said your point was -- that "the increased AIU testing led to a decline of top Kenyan performances at the very top". Maybe another way for me to ask is where are you drawing the line at the very top. With these lists, you seem to be making another point than one of a decline in top Kenyan performances -- that increased AIU testing has lead to an increased number of Kenyan busts, rather than a decline of top performances.
Whether you buy which has more impact, any discussion must consider the contribution of multiple factors, and not just framing and fitting it with doping and testing milestones. Any suggestion that AIU (or ABP) causes a decline must consider other factors, such as a reduced incentive to run on the track, and the seeming contradiction of continued world record progression on the roads. Determining which has the most impact is more difficult, and requires a lot more information than a list of a dozen or so names and times.
Whether 1500m runners excel in the marathon isn't as important as which event can make them the most money. It doesn't have to be either/or. And the road isn't limited to the marathon. At one point, Mo Farah was #6 all time fastest in 1500m and still ran 2:05:11 and 59:32 (or 59:07) in his old age in his mid-30s. A 59:00/2:05 isn't quite world class excellent, but could win a lot of prize money in smaller marathons, or half marathons, or 10 miles, or .... Many 1500m specialists will train for something else if they cannot earn any money in the 1500m.
