way too early Boys 2026 XC CIF predictions

They always seem to peak early. They do have 3 returners from state (2 juniors, 1 sophomore).
The 15:57 returner, who didn’t run at state, ran a 9:55 and 4:26 this spring. The 15:46 returner (the other one who didn’t run at state) hasn’t raced in a while until recently, so he might be coming back from something.
They also have a freshman who ran a 10:13 this spring. Many freshmen take big jumps when they become sophomores

Based on track season so far it's clearly Jesuit and Campolindo as the top two teams. Just look at what they've put up in the 1600 and 3200. Campolindo isn't a big track power either, they're typically way better in XC.

San Clemente doesn’t have the greatest track times this season, but they always surprise people at the end of cross season. Last year they made NXN although at the beginning the season people didn’t expect them to. In 2024 they made state although at the beginning the season people didn’t expect them to.

Man I’m telling you all right now, beware of Farmingdale. These kids got talent and a work ethic like no other team in all of cali. If they play their cards right we could be looking at a podium finish at CIFs and top ten at NXN. You heard it here first.

Never heard of this school

Who dat

Trust me by the end of this year you will have.

I think this is a team from NY. I see a post about it in the NY thread. Not sure why this team is mentioned in the CA thread. I don’t think Farmingdale exists in CA

Also Christ School in North Carolina is looking pretty good. They have about 3 returning (or 4) guys who either have been under 9 or close to

I know not a California team but definitely be on the lookout. Also Evan Chopra (Menlo Atherton CCS) is definitely a someone to look out for. He’s been having quite the breakout season. Only a junior but kind of reminds me of Stephen Sziebert (The top CCS runner) when it comes to crazy in terms of improvement and progression. Only began running cross his sophomore year and only did short distances his freshman year. Junior year he boosted a huge 15:18 Woodward time for only his first time running on the course at the state meet. Track season has also been a different beast (4:28 soph -> 4:10 junior, 1:56 soph -> 1:52, 10:51 soph -> 9:14 junior). With that amount of progression, he has potential to go at least sub 15 and maybe a top 5 finish at state and potential national meet qualifier.

There are multiple threads about this school already, and posts about this school in the NXN thread and NC threads. But yeah, they return 5 guys under 9:05 and a couple others just over 9:10. So I don’t see how any other team in the nation will beat this, barring injury. Kind of unfortunate that a team full of transfers will win NXN

Mountain View has the fastest returning boys 3200 times

XC predictions post track state finals:

DI: Mario Montoya (he’s had quite the sophomore xc and track season. If that 3200 went out any faster he could’ve definitely went under 8:50). His returning times consists of 4:09, 8:51, and 14:57. A great contender to qualify for NxN if he doesn’t qualify with his team. If Elias Thronson is healthy, he’d be a close 2nd. Other mentions: San Clemente duo of Yohan Anderson and Mattheus Dos Santos, Ayala sophomore Bryson Caganap (3rd returner) Redondo sophomore Matteo Sanchez (4th returner), Landon Warriner (McClatchy), Mtn view trio of Deven Koppala, Yuval Goldberg, and Liam Tassa, Evan Chopra (Menlo Atherton), Kingsley Lin (Santa Monica). Team title will either be between San Clemente or Mountain View. Bold prediction: two sophomores will go under 15 and one of them will be Tassa. Montoya will have one of the fastest times of the meet

DII: Tough to predict but will be between Aidan Antonio and Cooper Stream. I’ll go on a limb and say Antonio will dethrone Stream. Antonio has been running consistently faster than Stream in XC and track (although Stream may have the faster 3200 and 5k times, Antonio tends to peak well during the postseason). Other mentions: Adrian Cantu, Derek Luna, Jaxon Northcutt, Jesuit trio of Connor Bilodeau, Lucas Alberts, and Matthew Ogilvie, Ty Hundley (Vacaville). Team title will be between Jesuit, Hart, Woodbridge, and Vacaville. Other predictions: Ogilvie will go sub 15. Antonio and Stream will run low 14:40s or potentially sub 14:40 (both will qualify for NxN either individually or as a team). Northcutt and Luna may also be potential candidates for an NxN bid.

DIII: Michael Scarince (would say Clark Gregory if we saw him race more often but I believe Gregory can run faster than what his track times have shown). Scarince returns a 4:08, 8:53, and 14:58. I can see Scarince also qualifying individually for NxN. Second place will be between Caden Ehrhorn and Elijah Medina (Redlands East Valley) and Gregory will be 3rd (Ehrhorn has been consistently faster than Gregory this track season). Campolindo will have at least 3 boys in the top 10. Other mentions: Carter Cook (Campolindo), Nikola Van Delft (Campolindo), Gavin Gunn (Campolindo), Jay Lopez (St John Bosco), Marcus Napoli (Nipomo), Lucas Nulman (Palos Verdes), Victor Esquivel (West Ranch). Team title will go to Campolindo. Other predictions: sub 14:50 Scarince, sub 15 Ehrhorn, Medina, and Gregory.

DIV: Sterling White will win state and break the CA Woodward Park sophomore record. Only a freshman and has already broken Phillip Rocha’s freshman Woodward record by 7 seconds. Not only that but he’s went under 9 for the 3200 to set the CA freshman record. He qualified for the 3200 state finals as a FRESHMAN. To say White has had an accomplished season would be a huge understatement. Djali de Chalus will be a close second. Henry Hauser in third. Viggo Bortolin in 4th. Team title will go to Foothill Tech but be on the lookout for Sage Creek and Menlo. Other mentions: Grant Beasley (Sage Creek), Arize Nwosu (Oaks Christian), Jett Dailey (La Jolla- now that’s a recognizable name), Landon Wilson (Sonora), Sam Hansen (Aptos), Aidan Guzman (La Cañada). Other predictions: White sub 14:50 and NxN bid. De Chalus sub 14:55. Hauser sub 15.

DV: Blake Bay no questions. Despite how Bay’s track season went, there’s no denying he’ll be a top contender for the state title. I can’t say for certain he’ll be a contender for NxN due to his times in track this season but you never really know (example: Alijah Murillo going sub 14:50 despite barely going under 9:10 at CCS Junior year and not having gone under 4:20. He also ran 15:14 as a sophomore but could never go under 9:20 and barely ran under 4:25). Jack Richter 2nd, Conrad Chern 3rd, Teal Greene 4th. Team title will go to SF University and there will be about 2-3 of those boys in the top 10. Other mentions: SF University duo of Ben Friedland and Ethan Kraska (let’s hope Friedland is healthy during xc), Healdsburg duo of Lucas Welty and Phoenix de Maria Nall, Watson Eagles (Campbell Hall), Zach Causee (St Margaret’s)

^ D5 other predictions: sub 14:55 Bay. There are a few guys in the top 5-6 who’s been under 9:20 and have either broken or are close to breaking 4:20. It definitely won’t be the race of the day but it’s certainly going to be fast than last year’s D5 race.

State meet merge predictions

1) San Clemente. Qualified for NXN last year and returns everyone. Not the greatest track times, but they are a great XC program that always does better than expected at the end of XC season. Could be top 10 at NXN like they were a few years ago.

2) Jesuit. Tough choice, but Jesuit dominated the state meet last year and they have most of their guys back, although they lose 3 key scorers. They return the fastest group of 1600 times. Campolindo returns a faster group of XC times, but I trust a program with more history, and Jesuit has more competition in the D2 race than Campolindo does in D3.

3) Mountain View. They return the fastest group of 3200 times in the state. They return 5 of their top 7 as well as Goldberg who missed last XC season. They have many sophomores and freshmen stepping up. They will have competition from San Clemente in D1, and could possibly get top 2 in the merge.

4) Campolindo. They return the second fastest group of XC 5k times, and they also return the second fastest group of 1600 times, but they will need to race like 2024 Menlo to autoqualify. There will be not as much competition in D3 as in D1 and D2.

5) Woodbridge. One spot off making NXN last year. They are looking to have another strong squad. They return 5 guys including an NXN qualifier, but they lose their #2 and #3 which will be tough.

6) Vacaville. This program has been on the rise. They return an NXN qualifier and 5 of their top 7.

7) Redondo Union. Many didn’t expect them to make NXN last year after barely making state and losing 4 of their guys, but they ended up winning state and autoqualifying for NXN. They return a solid group of 1600 times. I think they can reload.

8) Hart. They have a really strong top 4, but if they can find a 5th runner they can do even better.

9) Beckman. They return 3 scorers from the state meet, and 2 more sub-16 guys from Clovis.

10) Trabuco Hills. Young team last year with 3 sophomores and a freshman at the state meet which also bodes well for fall 2027. But not enough to qualify for NXN in 2026 yet.

Individual NxN predictions:

Not accounting for Woodbridge and Vacaville: Mario Montoya, Michael Scarince, Sterling White, Jaxon Northcutt, Derek Luna/Elias Thronson (one of those two)

In the case Vacaville and Woodbridge don’t make NxN: Mario Montoya, Michael Scarince, Cooper Stream, Aidan Antonio, Sterling White

How come biological girls never compete against boys in CIF?

Not many of them would want to

If Farmingdale is in New York, how can they race in CIF?