D1 Women’s XC Championship Simulation Countdown

Napoleon's steeple times from USA and Worlds put her low 15s if shes going to run this fall. Could be #2-3 for state. Her PR of 15:40, she also had to win the steeple that day.

With Alder back in and Isobelle Jones estimated at 50th, my latest simulation is roughly:

BYU 125

Oregon, NC State, Florida all 135-140

New Mexico 240

A lot could change after Friday.

Sounds about right. BYU should always be the favorite until someone defeats them.

Just to reiterate, and let there be no mistake: NC State is the overwhelming favorite for the trophy. I’m the chief contrarian that called it first.

Does Alder still have eligibility?

If the NCAA has granted Alder a medical waiver and yet another season of eligibility after running in 100% of BYU’s regular season meets in 2021, the NCAA is a bigger joke than we already knew they were.

It just reeks of their desparation.

So after the conclusion of a big weekend of Division I CrossCountry, how well did my above statement hold up, as we head into the post-season?

Just a brief summary on the major points of this weekend:

-Jane Hedengren opened up at the Missouri PreNats, the same course of the Gans Creek Classic. BYU’s Jenna Hutchins has not yet run in a meet season.

-Grace Hartman and Angelina Napoleon opened their seasons at Nuttycombe. The latter laid down a stunner, finishing in 2nd place, overall. At the Wolfpack’s #4 position, Bethany Michalak continued to impress. And with some regression further back, Freshman Sadie Englehardt picked up the slack in a big way!

Unfortunately, we are still currently faced with LACCTIC unable to process the PreNats results, since the meet results have not been entered into TFRRS.

However, from a post on another thread, we have:

LetsRunSpecial wrote:

“Okay I am tired of waiting. Just use Gans Creek Classic table, we would get the following results. Basically the biggest positive is Riley Chamberlain, who outperformed her rating by at least 10 seconds. Everyone else including Jane Hedengren ran exactly as they were supposed to. No surprise.

“Jane Hedengren [FR] 18:42.3 Tic: 15:03
Riley Chamberlain [JR] 19:08.6 Tic: 15:24
Taylor Rohatinsky [SR] 19:41.6 Tic: 15:50
Jacey Farmer [JR] 19:45.6 Tic: 15:53
Lexi Goff [JR] 19:46.5 Tic: 15:55
Nelah Roberts [SO] 19:50.5 Tic: 15:57
Taylor Lovell [JR] 19:57.5 Tic: 16:02
Zariel Macchia [FR] 20:00.8 Tic: 16:06
Carmen Alder [SR] 20:02.3 Tic: 16:07
Emerald Kehr [SO] 20:40.2 Tic: 16:37
Tessa Buswell [FR] 20:58.2 Tic: 16:52
Addie Meldrum [SO] 21:00.5 Tic: 16:54
Vanesa Alder [SO] 21:07.8 Tic: 17:00
River White [FR] 21:15.8 Tic 17:06”

I don't think they are as overwhelming a favorite as your analysis suggests. But Michalak's performance and projected top #4 scorer by a fair margin would put them into favorite's position if everything else holds (which it will likely not).

That’s what this update to the simulations is about; to go with the data as it currently stands. You yourself previously said we would know much more after the completion of PreNats and Nuttycombe.

My "much more" and yours are different. I call them the favorite (as we speak), you say overwhelmingly.

But consider what some were declaring 3 weeks ago and I think we know a fair amount more now, and also what we conclude is different.

The following current simulations, previously posted on another thread, are being posted to this thread for completeness:

BYU……………….vs….NC State
Hedengren 15:03……..Hartman 15:10 (+4)
Chamberlain 15:24…..Napoleon 15:30 (+2)
Hutchins 15:30………….Gapes 15:30 (+0)
Rohatinsky 15:50………Michalak 15:33 (-31)
Far/Goff/Rob 15:53……Put/Engle 15:50 (-4)
NC State under BYU by 29 pnts.

(Note, places in parentheses are the placements between respective TiCs at 2024Natty’s.)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Oregon………... vs……NC State
Cherotich 15:17…….…..Hartman 15:10 (-3)
Cherubet 15:29………...Napoleon 15:30 (+1)
Ayyildiz 15:34………….Gapes 15:30 (-4)
Thompson 15:47………Michalak 15:33 (-24)
Frias 16:03……………..…Put/Engle 15:50 (-24)
NC State under Oregon by 56 pnts.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Florida………... vs……NC State
Olomomo 15:15………...Hartman 15:10 (-2)
J. Chepkoech 15:35…..Napoleon 15:30 (-5)
Wilson 15:37…………..….Gapes 15:30 (-7)
D. Chepkoech 15:44……Michalak 15:33 (-18)
Gilmore 16:08……………..Put/Engle 15:50 (-40)
NC State under Florida by 72 pnts.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

New Mexico…….. vs……NC State
Kosgei 14:58…….……....Hartman 15:10 (+5)
Jepngetich 15:43……….Napoleon 15:30 (-20)
Rono 16:04…………….….Gapes 15:30 (-62)
Wood 16:13……………....Michalak 15:33 (-96)
Seguin 16:16……………..…Put/Engle 15:50 (-70)
NC State under New Mexico by 243 pnts.

(Understandably, New Mexico may have some cards remaining to play.)

Heading into post-season, the current simulations in summary:

#1 NC State (0)
#2 BYU (29)
#3 Oregon (56)
#4 Florida (72)
#5? New Mexico (243?)

If I was a coach I would continue to vote BYU as #1 until they lose. Simulation is based on in season data with the underline assumption that nobody is holding back. In reality, most quality teams are training/racing to peak in November. If you consider the in season races as glorified training runs, winning them could prepare a team better for the postseason, but nothing is guaranteed until the race day. I won’t be surprised to see BYU continuing as the favorite, with NC State and Oregon as the close second heading into the nationals (unless any team stumbles in conference finals or regionals), no matter how we debate on simulation results or individual rankings.

If you recall, I was previously trying to share what NC State was showing at that time, which was before their #5 and #6 (at the time) had a bit of a stumble this past weekend. There were posters at that time still claiming that the Coaches Polls, putting BYU squarely in first place, were correct.

For example, look at post #10 to this thread:

Missingitbadly wrote:

“Any simulation that doesn’t have Hedengren running and BYU winning handily is just that - a simulation.”

Hartman unfortunately has been dealing with a plantar issue since (at least) the early summer.