To say no runner in history could defeat Hocker in a championship 5k is completely delusional. Do yourself a favor and study up on Jakob Ingebrigtsen, Mo Farah, Kenenisa Bekele, Bernard Lagat, Hicham El Guerrouj, and Eliud Kipchoge for starters. Apparently you aren’t familiar with any of them.
Why didn’t 12:36 Hocker win in Stockholm when Almgren could only run 12:44? Is he stupid?
First of all, I said "the Hocker we just saw." The entire premise of this conversation is that runners are not always at their best.
None of the runners you listed has ever had a kick like Hocker's. Heck, El Guerrouj closed the 1500 in Athens in 51.91, but he was in the lead at the bell, ran every step in lane one, and it was off a pedestrian pace. Farah ran 50.89 once, which people lost their minds about at the time, but that was in a 14-something race where it was clearly a stunt to see what he could do. Again, lane one the whole way, no traffic, just running one lap as fast as he could.
I think you're getting carried away by the history attached to these names. We've watched them, idolized them, talked about them for decades, so they're larger than life. Hocker was just another decent American until recently, so it sounds absurd to say none of those guys could beat him. But if you actually look at their body of work, there is nothing to indicate that any of them would've had much of a chance in a sub-13 race against a guy who can close in 52 seconds from lane 2.
It's interesting to speculate about training differences between eras. There is so much more emphasis these days on true sprint training (including plyos and weights) for distance runners. Perhaps the great milers of my era could've had better kicks with modern training. Farah (and Salazar) really showed people the benefits of that kind of work, but Farah never had to do it off of the kind of paces that people are running today.
As for Diamond League races, they really don't have anything to do with this discussion. I acknowledged that peak Jakob could probably run away from Hocker with pacers. But at sub-13 pace, the energy cost of leading is over one second per lap, so Jakob can't run away in a championship. (It seems like people never want to admit this.) The question then becomes whether there is a kicking distance that would work for him. Given what Hocker can do in the last lap, even in a sub 13 or sub 3:30 race, I don't think there is any strategy that would give Jakob a win. (Again, against Hocker on this day.)
Peak Jakob's only hope would be if someone else acted as a rabbit and made it a 12:3X race.
Jakob has shown time and time again at every 3k/5k he’s ever raced at full fitness that he closes the best over the final 2000/Mile. Hocker hasn’t shown this ability despite the finishing time. To say peak Jakob’s only hope is a 12:3x is ignorant really.
Unknowable but possible. Jakobs 7:17 was really at his peak fitness whereas Hockers 7:23 was clearly not at his peak fitness. So the strength difference is not as dramatic as people think.
If Jakob pushed from 1-2k out to grind out the kicks, it would thin the pack enough that if Hocker could hang he likely is not sitting back in 12th but more like 3-5th at the bell. So he probably doesn't need mid/low 52 to win. I hope we get a few more great battles from these two.
Hocker can´t run a 52 last lap if Jakob runs a 2.21 last 1000m BUT Jakob can.
See the numbers from Budapest 2023 in Hobbyhurdler´s post #5 above.
See my post from page 3. I'll repeat it here:
Considering it's a 5k race, we should look at more than just how they closed. In the two championship races that Jakob closed in 1:50, his 3k splits were 8:14 and 8:18. Hocker's 3k split this weekend was 7:52. Would 2024 Jakob have had the same close he had in Paris if he came through 3k about 26 seconds faster?
Hocker can´t run a 52 last lap if Jakob runs a 2.21 last 1000m BUT Jakob can.
See the numbers from Budapest 2023 in Hobbyhurdler´s post #5 above.
See my post from page 3. I'll repeat it here:
Considering it's a 5k race, we should look at more than just how they closed. In the two championship races that Jakob closed in 1:50, his 3k splits were 8:14 and 8:18. Hocker's 3k split this weekend was 7:52. Would 2024 Jakob have had the same close he had in Paris if he came through 3k about 26 seconds faster?
hey, always enjoy your posts! Glad we're on the same page.
I just don't get why people dwell in the last 1600, who cares when the finish time was significantly faster for Hocker.
And Hocker's endurance is criminally underrated. He just ran the second fastest championship 5k ever (only behind Bekele's 12:57.82) with a 52.6 last lap. The last lap suggests that's no where near his max. Case in point, Chetegei closed a 12:58 in 54 in Tokyo Oly 5k, and in his WR run, his last lap was 59. That was what a truly max-out performance looks like.
Unless you're telling me buy that someone can run a nearly max-out 5k at significantly faster than 800 pace, there's no way 12:58 represents Hocker's maximum performance (in terms of time). Maybe last year, when his last lap of that 12:58.82 was 57, but he has come a long way this year in terms of strength. Throw him (in this shape) in a DL race with wavelight, no traffic and round, he would break 12:40 easily. Jakob may still have the upper hand in time. Probably something like 12:33-34 for Jakob and 12:36-38 for Hocker, but in a championship, there's no way Jakob can run away from Hocker. And when it comes down to kick, it's game over.
And people seem to forget he didn't just close in 52.6, it's done with traffic going from 12th to 1st in lane 2 and sometimes close to lane 3. Despite that, his last lap was a full sec faster than the next person (54.06 from Kimeli who's pretty much in lane 1 the whole time). His kick is downright ridiculous.
12:36 lmao
I think it is crazy that you people speculate that Hocker can run 20 sec faster than he actual PB set in Boston in February this year less than 14 days later than his very impressive 3000m PB 7:23.14.
I have rewatched the Boston 5000m where Hocker and Teare seem to go as fast as they could both running high 12:57. And as I mentioned in another post Hocker WAS in a DL 5000m (Stockholm) this year and faded when he tried to hang on to the sub 12:50 guys.
So Hocker seems to fall off quite a bit going from 3000m to 5000m.
His 3000m in Millrose gives 1310 IAAF indoor points; his Boston 5000m gives 1271 points.
By the way: Hocker´s fast last lap has gone when he is running record races (which is quite natural):
You guys are on the same page because neither of you know history. Hocker did not just run the 2nd fastest championship 5k ever. That honor belongs to El Guerrouj, who ran 12:52.83 in Paris in 2003 for the silver medal behind Kipchoge. The top 6 in that race all ran faster than Hocker, as did Salah Hissou when he set the previous championship record in 1999.
To say no runner in history could defeat Hocker in a championship 5k is completely delusional. Do yourself a favor and study up on Jakob Ingebrigtsen, Mo Farah, Kenenisa Bekele, Bernard Lagat, Hicham El Guerrouj, and Eliud Kipchoge for starters. Apparently you aren’t familiar with any of them.
Why didn’t 12:36 Hocker win in Stockholm when Almgren could only run 12:44? Is he stupid?
Ok, I forgot about one particular race, big deal. So it's "only" the third fastest championship 5k, apparently that makes a whole lot of difference. We might not know history, but you for sure need to use some work on comprehension . I said "second fastest championship RACES" not a particular finish time.
Again you need to learn to read, because I've never said "no runner in history could defeat Hocker in a championship 5k". It would help me if could point out where I said it. Actually I even said "it would be 7:3 Hocker to Jakob, assuming both in top form"
maybe because he just didn't care about it? And maybe that's why Almgren couldn't even make it through round in 5k because he already peaked at that 12:44 run? Don't get me wrong, I don't agree with Hocker's (and Kerr for that matter) disregard for anything but Championship at all. I think that mentality is bad for the sport, and hence I'm more of a Jakob fan, but I can't deny his peaking is masterful. Even Kerr isn't nearly as consistent as him in championships. (2022 mysterious fade, 2025 DFL). So yeah, he just sandbagged it or treated it as a training session. Or put it bluntly, He doesn't consider them races at all (again, I don't agree with it)
anyway, love the discussion, keep it going. That's why I still visit this site, you don't get that everywhere!
So Hocker travelled to Europe to "sandbag" a DL 5000m race; or to take it as a training?
Do you believe that yourself?
I think Hocker can go low 12:50 in the 5000m (as Teare has done). At the moment anything faster than that is only wishful thinking.
Almgren was not in the 5000m final because he waisted his energy in the heat by front running the last laps at a pace which robbed him of his kick. He ran as an amateur as many other runners in these champs, including Hocker.
There is no evidence at all that Hocker is a 3:26, 7:19, 12:45 runner.
Everyone agress that Hocker is at his peak at the big champs.
His 3:27 last in Paris must be run at his peak AND as I have shown several times before if you want to compare these two competitors you must do it at EQUAL TERMS: And then Hocker is a 3:28 runner. See my post # 70.
3000m: Hocker´s Millrose 3000m at 7:23 was by far his relatively fastest race ever so how can think he is able to run 7:19?
5000m: I think he can run faster than his current PB but it is uncertain how much faster. When he tried to go with the fast guys in DL this year he ended up running 13:09 AND when he shortly after the Millrose 3000m ran a paced 5000m he just dipped under 13.
There’s plenty of evidence. 3:27 with rounds the days before and a 39 last 300, points to the potential to run 3:26.
7:23 in February, while not being peaked does suggest faster potential, again, 7:19-7:21 wouldn’t surprise me.
12:58 with a 25.5 last 200 suggest at least 12:45-12:50 fitness (same as what Nico and Graham run, not that crazy to think)
But if he should be faster on these 3 distances why hasn´t he ever been even close to do this?
This conversation is hilarious. No runner in history wins a championship 5k against the Hocker that we just saw, and it's not particularly close.
Hocker has a kick that is multiple seconds faster than any other 5k runner ever, and he can do it off of sub-13 pace. Even if Jakob generously were in shape to run a time trial 5k 10 seconds faster than Hocker, he loses over a second per lap leading, so Hocker is right with him at the bell. And even if Jakob could take some of the sting out of Hocker's kick, there's no way he can take enough out of him to win, especially if the pace were fast enough that Hocker can kick from within a few yards of the front, rather than from a different time zone.
Obviously it's an entirely different story in a DL where Jakob can have pacers for part of the way, but without help, he's not strong enough to kill Hocker, and in the last lap it's going to be a slaughter every time.
Lose a second per lap leading?!? So you’re saying that jakob could have run 3:24.5 in paris if he had a pacer??
There’s plenty of evidence. 3:27 with rounds the days before and a 39 last 300, points to the potential to run 3:26.
7:23 in February, while not being peaked does suggest faster potential, again, 7:19-7:21 wouldn’t surprise me.
12:58 with a 25.5 last 200 suggest at least 12:45-12:50 fitness (same as what Nico and Graham run, not that crazy to think)
Yes, and don't forget Hocker's momentum was interrupted in the Olympic final. He could have run even faster that day.
Hocker could possibly have run slightly faster in the OG final hadn´t he not been obsructed by Jakob.
But remember: If Hocker otherwise should go after a really fast time he can´t expect that Jakob turns up to pace him all the way to the finish. So in such a race where he should run the last 400-500m in the front he won´t be able to break 3:28 (in peak shape).
And further remember: Hocker second fastest 1500m time was run in DL Lausanne 2024 just 14 days after the Olympic final and Hocker only managed to run a high 3:29 despite perfect pacing all the way. Jakob ran 2 sec faster.
Lose a second per lap leading?!? So you’re saying that jakob could have run 3:24.5 in paris if he had a pacer??
How can you not know this? Yes, he lost more than a second per lap while leading. This is very simple physics, validated by actual measurements of running economy, going back to the 70s. It's indisputable.
Considering it's a 5k race, we should look at more than just how they closed. In the two championship races that Jakob closed in 1:50, his 3k splits were 8:14 and 8:18. Hocker's 3k split this weekend was 7:52. Would 2024 Jakob have had the same close he had in Paris if he came through 3k about 26 seconds faster?
Of course he would!
LOL, I'm not so sure. The first 3k of a race impacts the last 2k. Comparing Hocker's close in Tokyo to Jakob's finishes in Budapest and Paris is an apples-to-oranges comparison given that the first 3k in Tokyo was substantially faster than the first 3k in each of the previous two years. We don't know what 2024 Jakob would have done after a 7:52 first 3k.
Hopefully, both guys bring their A game to Beijing in 2027, and we can see how they stack up.
Yes, and don't forget Hocker's momentum was interrupted in the Olympic final. He could have run even faster that day.
Hocker could possibly have run slightly faster in the OG final hadn´t he not been obsructed by Jakob.
But remember: If Hocker otherwise should go after a really fast time he can´t expect that Jakob turns up to pace him all the way to the finish. So in such a race where he should run the last 400-500m in the front he won´t be able to break 3:28 (in peak shape).
And further remember: Hocker second fastest 1500m time was run in DL Lausanne 2024 just 14 days after the Olympic final and Hocker only managed to run a high 3:29 despite perfect pacing all the way. Jakob ran 2 sec faster.
It's well-established that Hocker runs his best in championship races, so looking at what he does in non-championship time trials doesn't tell us all that much about what he's capable of running on his best championship-form day.
One thing we know for certain is Hocker is now both the reigning Olympic Champion at 1500m and the reigning World Champion at 5,000m, and he defeated Jakob and a bunch of other great runners to win both of those titles.
Hocker can´t run a 52 last lap if Jakob runs a 2.21 last 1000m BUT Jakob can.
See the numbers from Budapest 2023 in Hobbyhurdler´s post #5 above.
See my post from page 3. I'll repeat it here:
Considering it's a 5k race, we should look at more than just how they closed. In the two championship races that Jakob closed in 1:50, his 3k splits were 8:14 and 8:18. Hocker's 3k split this weekend was 7:52. Would 2024 Jakob have had the same close he had in Paris if he came through 3k about 26 seconds faster?
Let´s compare 2 races where Hocker and Jakob ran on more equal terms:
Hocker´s Millrose PB 3000m and Jakob´s Silesia WR 3000m.
Hocker got drafting for about for 2400m and Jakob for about 1950m so slight advantage to Hocker.
Hocker ran the first 2000m in 4:58.27; Jakob ran in 4:55.21 so about 3 sec faster.
So if Hocker should be the faster runner he should be significantly faster on the last 1000m but as you possibly already know?...... Hocker ran 2:24.91 whereas Jakob ran 2:22.34.
Jakob in peak shape can - on equal terms - run a faster last 1000m and possibly also a faster last 1600m than anyone in history, of course including Hocker.
And that is what "snowflakes" in vain has tried to point out in several posts on this thread.
Hocker could possibly have run slightly faster in the OG final hadn´t he not been obsructed by Jakob.
But remember: If Hocker otherwise should go after a really fast time he can´t expect that Jakob turns up to pace him all the way to the finish. So in such a race where he should run the last 400-500m in the front he won´t be able to break 3:28 (in peak shape).
And further remember: Hocker second fastest 1500m time was run in DL Lausanne 2024 just 14 days after the Olympic final and Hocker only managed to run a high 3:29 despite perfect pacing all the way. Jakob ran 2 sec faster.
It's well-established that Hocker runs his best in championship races, so looking at what he does in non-championship time trials doesn't tell us all that much about what he's capable of running on his best championship-form day.
One thing we know for certain is Hocker is now both the reigning Olympic Champion at 1500m and the reigning World Champion at 5,000m, and he defeated Jakob and a bunch of other great runners to win both of those titles.
Hocker has NEVER run as fast RELATIVELY as he did in his Millrose 3000m PB- championship or not. So it is wishful thinking that he should be able to run faster in the 3000m even in his best shape.
Hocker could possibly have run slightly faster in the OG final hadn´t he not been obsructed by Jakob.
But remember: If Hocker otherwise should go after a really fast time he can´t expect that Jakob turns up to pace him all the way to the finish. So in such a race where he should run the last 400-500m in the front he won´t be able to break 3:28 (in peak shape).
And further remember: Hocker second fastest 1500m time was run in DL Lausanne 2024 just 14 days after the Olympic final and Hocker only managed to run a high 3:29 despite perfect pacing all the way. Jakob ran 2 sec faster.
It's well-established that Hocker runs his best in championship races, so looking at what he does in non-championship time trials doesn't tell us all that much about what he's capable of running on his best championship-form day.
One thing we know for certain is Hocker is now both the reigning Olympic Champion at 1500m and the reigning World Champion at 5,000m, and he defeated Jakob and a bunch of other great runners to win both of those titles.
I don´t think it is an argument that Hocker defeated Jakob. The OP wrote about peak shape Jakob.
Considering it's a 5k race, we should look at more than just how they closed. In the two championship races that Jakob closed in 1:50, his 3k splits were 8:14 and 8:18. Hocker's 3k split this weekend was 7:52. Would 2024 Jakob have had the same close he had in Paris if he came through 3k about 26 seconds faster?
Let´s compare 2 races where Hocker and Jakob ran on more equal terms:
Hocker´s Millrose PB 3000m and Jakob´s Silesia WR 3000m.
Hocker got drafting for about for 2400m and Jakob for about 1950m so slight advantage to Hocker.
Hocker ran the first 2000m in 4:58.27; Jakob ran in 4:55.21 so about 3 sec faster.
So if Hocker should be the faster runner he should be significantly faster on the last 1000m but as you possibly already know?...... Hocker ran 2:24.91 whereas Jakob ran 2:22.34.
Jakob in peak shape can - on equal terms - run a faster last 1000m and possibly also a faster last 1600m than anyone in history, of course including Hocker.
And that is what "snowflakes" in vain has tried to point out in several posts on this thread.
Do you really think comparing an indoor race in February to an outdoor race in August is "equal terms"?
I will grant you that Jakob is the best time trial runner today. Nobody can match him when he has wavelights and pacers! Championship running is a different beast. Hocker has now defeated Jakob two championship races in a row. Credit to Hocker.
This conversation is hilarious. No runner in history wins a championship 5k against the Hocker that we just saw, and it's not particularly close.
Hocker has a kick that is multiple seconds faster than any other 5k runner ever, and he can do it off of sub-13 pace. Even if Jakob generously were in shape to run a time trial 5k 10 seconds faster than Hocker, he loses over a second per lap leading, so Hocker is right with him at the bell. And even if Jakob could take some of the sting out of Hocker's kick, there's no way he can take enough out of him to win, especially if the pace were fast enough that Hocker can kick from within a few yards of the front, rather than from a different time zone.
Obviously it's an entirely different story in a DL where Jakob can have pacers for part of the way, but without help, he's not strong enough to kill Hocker, and in the last lap it's going to be a slaughter every time.
Lose a second per lap leading?!? So you’re saying that jakob could have run 3:24.5 in paris if he had a pacer??
I have on other threads proposed that you lose 0.8 sec per lap by leading and that Jakob consequently could have run low 3:26 in Paris if he had been able to draft to 1100m.
It's well-established that Hocker runs his best in championship races, so looking at what he does in non-championship time trials doesn't tell us all that much about what he's capable of running on his best championship-form day.
One thing we know for certain is Hocker is now both the reigning Olympic Champion at 1500m and the reigning World Champion at 5,000m, and he defeated Jakob and a bunch of other great runners to win both of those titles.
I don´t think it is an argument that Hocker defeated Jakob. The OP wrote about peak shape Jakob.
This conversation is hilarious. No runner in history wins a championship 5k against the Hocker that we just saw, and it's not particularly close.
Hocker has a kick that is multiple seconds faster than any other 5k runner ever, and he can do it off of sub-13 pace. Even if Jakob generously were in shape to run a time trial 5k 10 seconds faster than Hocker, he loses over a second per lap leading, so Hocker is right with him at the bell. And even if Jakob could take some of the sting out of Hocker's kick, there's no way he can take enough out of him to win, especially if the pace were fast enough that Hocker can kick from within a few yards of the front, rather than from a different time zone.
Obviously it's an entirely different story in a DL where Jakob can have pacers for part of the way, but without help, he's not strong enough to kill Hocker, and in the last lap it's going to be a slaughter every time.
hey, always enjoy your posts! Glad we're on the same page.
I just don't get why people dwell in the last 1600, who cares when the finish time was significantly faster for Hocker.
And Hocker's endurance is criminally underrated. He just ran the second fastest championship 5k ever (only behind Bekele's 12:57.82) with a 52.6 last lap. The last lap suggests that's no where near his max. Case in point, Chetegei closed a 12:58 in 54 in Tokyo Oly 5k, and in his WR run, his last lap was 59. That was what a truly max-out performance looks like.
Unless you're telling me buy that someone can run a nearly max-out 5k at significantly faster than 800 pace, there's no way 12:58 represents Hocker's maximum performance (in terms of time). Maybe last year, when his last lap of that 12:58.82 was 57, but he has come a long way this year in terms of strength. Throw him (in this shape) in a DL race with wavelight, no traffic and round, he would break 12:40 easily. Jakob may still have the upper hand in time. Probably something like 12:33-34 for Jakob and 12:36-38 for Hocker, but in a championship, there's no way Jakob can run away from Hocker. And when it comes down to kick, it's game over.
And people seem to forget he didn't just close in 52.6, it's done with traffic going from 12th to 1st in lane 2 and sometimes close to lane 3. Despite that, his last lap was a full sec faster than the next person (54.06 from Kimeli who's pretty much in lane 1 the whole time). His kick is downright ridiculous.
Are you saying Hocker went from running 13:09 in June in a paced DL race to being in 12:40 shape today?
I think it is crazy that you people speculate that Hocker can run 20 sec faster than he actual PB set in Boston in February this year less than 14 days later than his very impressive 3000m PB 7:23.14.
I have rewatched the Boston 5000m where Hocker and Teare seem to go as fast as they could both running high 12:57. And as I mentioned in another post Hocker WAS in a DL 5000m (Stockholm) this year and faded when he tried to hang on to the sub 12:50 guys.
So Hocker seems to fall off quite a bit going from 3000m to 5000m.
His 3000m in Millrose gives 1310 IAAF indoor points; his Boston 5000m gives 1271 points.
By the way: Hocker´s fast last lap has gone when he is running record races (which is quite natural):
Last lap in the Millrose 3000m : 56.75
Last lap in his Boston 5000m: Around 57.
Hocker was just trying to knock out the World Champs standard at BU, he wasn't going for any huge PB or anything. Totally different race than the Millrose 3k.
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