How Cole Hocker is Quietly Getting into WR Shape, and Why Nobody is Noticing

How the heck do you have Phanuel’s odds below the Cheruiyot‘s? Imo Phanuel is a top 6 guy…. I’d prob have Habz chances above both Cheruiyot‘s as well. And while I don’t think Phanuel is going to win, 0.2% is crazy, I’d definitely put money on him which such crazy odds.
I think he has a least a 3-5% chance to win.

Also (just finished reading your summary) 59.4% for Hocker to win? That means you’d take him over the field. I like Cole and think he has a solid chance to win again, but picking him over the field is insanity. I’d take that bet as well.

Koech's odds are SLIGHTLY below the Cheruiyot's, because he's never closed a race (fast or slow) under 13.2 in races where Laros was closing in 12.5. The Cheruiyot's have closed fast, so in a tactical race they have a slightly better chance.

Hocker's odds are so high because he was the best in the Olympic Final, no man has yet to show that level of fitness and he's been ahead in fitness this year compared to every point last year.

And he WOULD be lucky…lucky for not competing during El Guerrouj’s prime! ;)

Let’s be honest, do we genuinely believe that Hocker would be as elite of a talent (compared to his peers, even) if this WEREN’T the super-shoe/bicarb era? He has obviously been a better responder than most…generally, I consider his raw talent to be closer to Nathan Green’s.

I definitely think Hocker is more likely to win than anyone else. I posted last week that he was the value pick, depending on the odds.

Hocker's quiet season and Laros' recent ascendency should lend to a false perspective. I think Hocker is less fragile and more likely to make sure he is in the correct position to time and unleash the kick.

Hocker has always been an elite talent. Footlocker champion. Enough said.

Unless Jakob or Laros chooses to push the pace, the winning time will be a 3:30.x with more people than there are medals available splitting 50.x on the last lap, might even see someone split a 49.x

He was run off the track because it was won in 13:06, not exactly a fast time. This year he won in a very pedestrian 13:26. This is not the metric you want to point to if you're arguing that he is heading into Tokyo with improved fitness

Yeah, I don't see a WR in the 1500 being set at a world championship.

Track has been a shdow of it's true glory since the likes of haile, Bekele, el g, komen, targat, ngeny, and kipchoge...

The current line up is without question nowhere near the most competitive of all time. What a joke lol.

Cute, OP makes it look like a research paper, he did his best with the layout (e.g. 1,5 line spacing, referring to tabels). However, it's full of bias and personal opinions and not a lot of sources and/or research. Maybe add some references and citations in APA-style next time.

So, I looked at your docs and I don't see any new information, any new insight on revolutionary training or crazy splits that Hocker would be hitting in his prep to substantiate the "quietly getting in WR shape"?

It's just stats from the last few years and parts of 2025. In 2025, Hocker didn't do anything remarkable: when he PRd, others PRd better. When he raced, he got beat every single time. He did ok, but not great.

I'm not saying Hocker is in bad shape right now, or that he doesn't have a chance at world's - he's definitely a contender, but your research has very little predictive value.

LOL

Names seven of the most onvious dopers in history. 😂

LOL - found the guy with his head in the sand. You think the carbon shoe, bi carb crowd isn't doing something else in addition that was perfected 30 years ago and isn't traceable, all while making you 5-10% faster? Get out of here, guy.

Seeing someone go 50 or 49 in a low 3:30 race would break my understanding of this sport and probably this website

Laros and Hocker have both improved their strength this year. JI will likely take it out fast or at least try to stretch the field at some point. The race will come down to which one of the kicker still have a kick at pace. These dynamics favor Laros, Hocker and Strand with Kerr being perhaps slightly less effective. Best guess is Laros, Hocker and Strand in that order, but then again who knows.