What are those better tactics? I believe that him shortening the race the will only play in to the hands of the kickers. I think his only chance is to run a wire-wire 3:27. Posters always talk about him running accelerating laps, but doing so won’t gap the kickers.
The point of accelerating the laps isn't to gap the kickers, it is to get them jostling for position, running extra distance and wasting energy. Nick Willis has a nice long explanation when he gave his assessment prior to Paris Olympics when he correctly predicted Hocker to win.
If it’s a winning strategy, what’s to prevent someone else from doing it? I just watched the 2023 WC, and Ingebrigtsen seemed to use the strategy you’re recommending and people were on him on the final curve. Kerr passed him and Nordas just missed.
Ingebrigtsen is no Centro, and for him to win with that strategy, he’s going to have to hammer those. accelerating laps which will stretch things out a bit with minimal jockeying.
Come on. I can go as fast as I want and it’s pretty likely Ingebrigtsen, Hocker, Fisher and Young will show up. Do you have some insider information I’m not privy to? Right, it happened last in 2019 but I think it will happen again this year. Do I need to type more slowly?
In a previous post, you said Ingebrigtsen is slowly learning that it’s difficult to run 3:26 pace unless he’s in 3:24 shape. Rather than slowly, it took just 3:28.24 in Paris.
Jakob didn’t learn slowly or all of a sudden in a wrongly paced race that front running 3.26 or 3.27 pace is difficult. -In an interview just prior to the Paris race he said he feared he would be his own worst enemy. Why? Because he knew it’s extremely easy to screw up if you choose to be in the front a whole race…
I think Jakob was in 3.25 high shape (and could have done a 3.27 low solo) in the OG final. And I also think his strategy was perfectly sound. But the execution wasn’t. First and foremost one cannot let the competitors string out and draft on you in an uncontested inner lane position. So the first lap has to be slow enough to create chaos behind the leader. And of course one cannot burn one self with a sub 55 first lap -but Jakob knows all this. What he and we don’t know is his fitness and if his injury is totally buried in a champs that may demand 5 rounds in spikes. But exciting it will be…
He’s got nothing to lose this year. Nobody expects him to win the 1500. He should jog the rounds like he always does and kick the last 600. Then in the final, he should sit in 2nd place and dare whoever is leading to take the pace. Look at El G in 2004 for an example. If he’s feeling good enough, lead the last 700-800 but not a step before then. He must be able to ratchet down the pace to pull that off though. It’ll take the kick out of the kickers and then positioning in the last 100m will be paramount (assuming he is still accelerating the last 100m). He doesn’t need to close in 12.5 if the previous 100s were all slightly faster than the rest (i.e. 13.0, 13.3, 13.5, 13.7 - 53.5 last lap is fast enough as long as the previous 400 was a 55 and he closes in 1;48).
the 5K should be the usual strategy. Anyone suggesting the Ethiopians will push the pace is foolish. They have never done it (other than prime Bekele) and they won’t do it in hot and humid Tokyo. Jingy will sit and wait until the last 400-600. I think he’s the favorite and the rounds of the 1500 will actually help him get ready for the 5K (schedule is kind in that the 5K semi is 2 days after the 1500m final).
will be very interesting. Can’t wait to see how it all unfolds.
The point of accelerating the laps isn't to gap the kickers, it is to get them jostling for position, running extra distance and wasting energy. Nick Willis has a nice long explanation when he gave his assessment prior to Paris Olympics when he correctly predicted Hocker to win.
If it’s a winning strategy, what’s to prevent someone else from doing it? I just watched the 2023 WC, and Ingebrigtsen seemed to use the strategy you’re recommending and people were on him on the final curve. Kerr passed him and Nordas just missed.
Ingebrigtsen is no Centro, and for him to win with that strategy, he’s going to have to hammer those. accelerating laps which will stretch things out a bit with minimal jockeying.
It's only a winning strategy for someone fast enough to do it. Even then it isn't a guarantee because these are hard to win, especially with several people who can outkick you. Frankly, I don't see ever winning another global 1500 title. Too many guys with enough strength to hang onto him. His phenomenal running led to this increase in 1500 running though.
Come on. I can go as fast as I want and it’s pretty likely Ingebrigtsen, Hocker, Fisher and Young will show up. Do you have some insider information I’m not privy to? Right, it happened last in 2019 but I think it will happen again this year. Do I need to type more slowly?
In a previous post, you said Ingebrigtsen is slowly learning that it’s difficult to run 3:26 pace unless he’s in 3:24 shape. Rather than slowly, it took just 3:28.24 in Paris.
Jakob didn’t learn slowly or all of a sudden in a wrongly paced race that front running 3.26 or 3.27 pace is difficult. -In an interview just prior to the Paris race he said he feared he would be his own worst enemy. Why? Because he knew it’s extremely easy to screw up if you choose to be in the front a whole race…
I think Jakob was in 3.25 high shape (and could have done a 3.27 low solo) in the OG final. And I also think his strategy was perfectly sound. But the execution wasn’t. First and foremost one cannot let the competitors string out and draft on you in an uncontested inner lane position. So the first lap has to be slow enough to create chaos behind the leader. And of course one cannot burn one self with a sub 55 first lap -but Jakob knows all this. What he and we don’t know is his fitness and if his injury is totally buried in a champs that may demand 5 rounds in spikes. But exciting it will be…
unless you are head and shoulders above the field, guaranteed to blow up in your face
the miscalculation was that others couldn’t follow him through 1200, regardless of the exact splits — everyone was covering that ‘move’
again, this isnt 2019 where ppl let everyone go in hopes of a blowup: 2019 TC goes through 1200 in 2:48/2:49, wins handily by 2 seconds. JI goes through 1200 in 2:47 and gets throttled.
Again, the race is not always just about what “you” are doing, you have other dynamics and other ppl running as well. If that was the case we could just crown race winners with pre races poll position time trials
The point of accelerating the laps isn't to gap the kickers, it is to get them jostling for position, running extra distance and wasting energy. Nick Willis has a nice long explanation when he gave his assessment prior to Paris Olympics when he correctly predicted Hocker to win.
If it’s a winning strategy, what’s to prevent someone else from doing it? I just watched the 2023 WC, and Ingebrigtsen seemed to use the strategy you’re recommending and people were on him on the final curve. Kerr passed him and Nordas just missed.
Ingebrigtsen is no Centro, and for him to win with that strategy, he’s going to have to hammer those. accelerating laps which will stretch things out a bit with minimal jockeying.
zero coherence in what youre espousing at this point
If it’s a winning strategy, what’s to prevent someone else from doing it? I just watched the 2023 WC, and Ingebrigtsen seemed to use the strategy you’re recommending and people were on him on the final curve. Kerr passed him and Nordas just missed.
Ingebrigtsen is no Centro, and for him to win with that strategy, he’s going to have to hammer those. accelerating laps which will stretch things out a bit with minimal jockeying.
It's only a winning strategy for someone fast enough to do it. Even then it isn't a guarantee because these are hard to win, especially with several people who can outkick you. Frankly, I don't see ever winning another global 1500 title. Too many guys with enough strength to hang onto him. His phenomenal running led to this increase in 1500 running though.
totally agree
he still has to put his socks on like everyone and go ‘ok, who’s in this race, what should i think might happen, how do i respond to x? can i create favorable action in this race that benefits my chances’
or
’im the best im just going to lead with my nose. when i lose ill acknowledge the tactic was ‘no tactics’ i wasnt great on this day’
If it’s a winning strategy, what’s to prevent someone else from doing it? I just watched the 2023 WC, and Ingebrigtsen seemed to use the strategy you’re recommending and people were on him on the final curve. Kerr passed him and Nordas just missed.
Ingebrigtsen is no Centro, and for him to win with that strategy, he’s going to have to hammer those. accelerating laps which will stretch things out a bit with minimal jockeying.
zero coherence in what youre espousing at this point
What didn’t you understand and quit already with the insults. What makes you such a competitive distance running genius? And using paragraphs make posts more readable.
Toyko Olympics was the smartest race tactically hes ever run.
Took it out just fast enough to bait one of the Kenyans to take it and sat until the final kick. He saw the rds previously and knew how TC had previously approached global championships — it was a master class for him.
His 5000m races are much better tactically where he plays everyone and maximizes every advantage in his arsenal. Unfortunately we’ve seen some lapses/illnesses for the 1500 globally
Tokyo was not the smartest race tactically Jakob has ever run. -There are clear signs of him irritating over Cheruiyot dominating the race too much. Because Jakob wants to win his races in a dominant fashion (if possible ), and not as a weak parasite -so Jakob leading 2 or 300m longer before the Kenyan passed him would probably have been ideal. The finish time would then also probably been better -far more important than a lousy OG gold. Because time says something about capacity (which is the only thing -if you get it out- that can make you and all time great). And not a random win (e.g because Cheruiyot was injured, the level of the competition was low, and so on)…
Jakob is the real deal, not because of his medals, but because of his obvious resources he just need to get out. Most of you guys think positioning and tactics is what running is about, but I don’t - to me it’s about balancing your own resources in the race so your time will be as fast as possible. The next guy should be of little interest (aside of contributing to the pace, but not as much as Cheruiyot did; too much help puts an asterisk to your time).
But I also get your perspective: Guys like Hocker, Kerr and Nuguse, that in 2024 would only be 3.28 mid/high athletes in a normal race are far more interesting to watch if they can win something or be drafted to good times. -I get that, and I also thinks it’s exciting. But the road to greatness isn’t winning a global champs -Paris was totally random between Hocker, Kerr and Nuguse -luck/unlucky/a little difference in positioning, or who Jakob chose to block, and so forth. -Paris wasn’t Cole’s best race; that came when he contributed to Grant’s 3000m indoor WR -by being decent, and by building over distance capability so he can become a good 1500m runner sometimes in the future. (A real sub 3.28 man like Habz and Jakob)…
This post was edited 15 minutes after it was posted.
zero coherence in what youre espousing at this point
What didn’t you understand and quit already with the insults. What makes you such a competitive distance running genius? And using paragraphs make posts more readable.
because i have the same argument over global championships with clueless ppl who say the same silly things
‘messageboard’ — perhaps you’re new to the internet but my grammar and construction is not the problem in your lack of understanding and following of the point here, paragraphs aside
if by paragraph you mean ‘loose association of ideas which changes post by post’ ill pass
If it’s a winning strategy, what’s to prevent someone else from doing it? I just watched the 2023 WC, and Ingebrigtsen seemed to use the strategy you’re recommending and people were on him on the final curve. Kerr passed him and Nordas just missed.
Ingebrigtsen is no Centro, and for him to win with that strategy, he’s going to have to hammer those. accelerating laps which will stretch things out a bit with minimal jockeying.
Jakob was sick in that race. If healthy he would (with the same racing strategy) have beaten Nordås with 2 sec+ as he usually does, and not with the absurd 3 hundreds of a second…
Toyko Olympics was the smartest race tactically hes ever run.
Took it out just fast enough to bait one of the Kenyans to take it and sat until the final kick. He saw the rds previously and knew how TC had previously approached global championships — it was a master class for him.
His 5000m races are much better tactically where he plays everyone and maximizes every advantage in his arsenal. Unfortunately we’ve seen some lapses/illnesses for the 1500 globally
Tokyo was not the smartest race tactically Jakob has ever run. -There are clear signs of him irritating over Cheruiyot dominating the race too much. Because Jakob wants to win his races in a dominant fashion (if possible ), and not as a weak parasite -so Jakob leading 2 or 300m longer before the Kenyan passed him would probably have been ideal. The finish time would then also probably been better -far more important than a lousy OG gold. Because time says something about capacity (which is the only thing -if you get it out- that can make you and all time great). And not a random win (e.g because Cheruiyot was injured, the level of the competition was low, and so on)… Jakob is the real deal, not because of his medals, but because of his obvious resources he just need to get out. Most of you guys think positioning and tactics is what running is about, but I don’t - to me it’s about balancing your own resources in the race so your time will be as fast as possible. The next guy should be of little interest (aside of contributing to the pace, but not as much as Cheruiyot did; too much help puts an asterisk to your time). But I also get your perspective: Guys like Hocker, Kerr and Nuguse, that in 2024 would only be 3.28 mid/high athletes in a normal race are far more interesting to watch if they can win something or be drafted to good times. -I get that, and I also thinks it’s exciting. But the road to greatness isn’t winning a global champs -Paris was totally random between Hocker, Kerr and Nuguse -luck/unlucky/a little difference in positioning, or who Jakob chose to block, and so forth. -Paris wasn’t Cole’s best race; that came when he contributed to Grant’s 3000m indoor WR -by being decent, and by building over distance capability so he can become a good 1500m runner sometimes in the future. (A real sub 3.28 man like Habz and Jakob)…
you must be high to make that claim
watch tokyo, then all his other races, then watch toyko olympics again
What is this Hockermania all about? Yes, yes, he ran a marvelous 1500 in Paris. This year 3:30.37. His third best ever. And that's it. And suddenly he is going to run exeptionally well again? Why? The three kenyans in the WC better than him this year, three norwegians, two americans, two dutch. Laros is the man to beat. And Hocker is not the man to do it. But perhaps Kerr or Ingebrigtsen.
Good luck with that. Underestimating Hocker based on limited regular season results ends poorly. Even at Pre which wasn’t his best he beat most of the guys you’re thinking are better.
Another way of looking at Pre:
Hocker only finished 4th in his "home" Oregon meet as the top Nike athlete in the field, barely beating a 19 year old Myers and almost being pipped on the line by a fast finishing RCheruiyot.
This kind of race and finish for Hocker has been been on repeat since post-Paris Diamond Leagues and both at GST and USA's, where he failed to win any "tactical" races - his self proclaimed strength. Hardly what I would call limited results to assess Hocker.
Good luck with that. Underestimating Hocker based on limited regular season results ends poorly. Even at Pre which wasn’t his best he beat most of the guys you’re thinking are better.
Another way of looking at Pre:
Hocker only finished 4th in his "home" Oregon meet as the top Nike athlete in the field, barely beating a 19 year old Myers and almost being pipped on the line by a fast finishing RCheruiyot.
This kind of race and finish for Hocker has been been on repeat since post-Paris Diamond Leagues and both at GST and USA's, where he failed to win any "tactical" races - his self proclaimed strength. Hardly what I would call limited results to assess Hocker.
Hocker and Kerr have both been smart
Very likely locks for medals especially as everyone seems a little cooked on the circuit
We have no idea what events he will run and what fitness he will bring to the table.
What I'm confident of, however, is that he will run to the maximum of his capability. I've never seen him run a horrible race, even in his much scrutinised losses. He is so consistent, like a machine, and will give it everything he's got.
The last race he lost was against Nuguse in Zurich last year, where he turned up sick. He came 2nd but still dominated most of the race and ran hard to the line in 3:29.
Hocker only finished 4th in his "home" Oregon meet as the top Nike athlete in the field, barely beating a 19 year old Myers and almost being pipped on the line by a fast finishing RCheruiyot.
This kind of race and finish for Hocker has been been on repeat since post-Paris Diamond Leagues and both at GST and USA's, where he failed to win any "tactical" races - his self proclaimed strength. Hardly what I would call limited results to assess Hocker.
Hocker and Kerr have both been smart
Very likely locks for medals especially as everyone seems a little cooked on the circuit
I don't think so.
Laros is probably the only lock for a medal due to the tools in his arsenal to get out of trouble. And he is in form.
We have no idea what events he will run and what fitness he will bring to the table.
What I'm confident of, however, is that he will run to the maximum of his capability. I've never seen him run a horrible race, even in his much scrutinised losses. He is so consistent, like a machine, and will give it everything he's got.
The last race he lost was against Nuguse in Zurich last year, where he turned up sick. He came 2nd but still dominated most of the race and ran hard to the line in 3:29.