How does the best American all year miss the team? Front running doesn’t work. Discus
He front ran to US and world titles indoors.
I think what we saw yesterday was akin to what Jakob did in the Paris 1500m final when he dropped that 54 second lap - he got excited, and went out at too hot of pace. Learning experience.
Front running on 200m tracks is a different tactic than outdoors. Very difficult to get around someone indoors.
you're not a tactical genius if you have one game plan every day; you're a scheme guy hoping scheme wins the day.
on the day he lost, including to a HS kid.
there are gradations within pro and college and the supporters are not considering the tactics may be a bit "punch down." like if you're very good but not great you might still freak out an indoor field or college kids by frontrunning to a 144 or 145 or so. like they maybe can't go that fast and/or the split blows their mind.
vs. 2/3 of the qualified i am sure have run that fast before, and waited out the millers of the world, and can both close late and run a swift time. so they don't panic and it's a foot race.
at which point, did he try to frontrun 3 rounds that way? even if you do the first round in 147 and a little faster semis that's sapping what you need for that match sprint at the end of the final, on top of what front running itself does once in the final.
If you're sure you're the fastest guy, front running makes lots of sense and you can run the shortest total distance. Go watch most of Rudisha's races.
WIth Hoey, he had to go through rounds, which he has less experience doing than most of the rest of the field, and the difference between him and Hoppel isn't great, or the difference between him and a fully operational Donovan Brazier and a misunderestimated Lutkenhaus, both of whom he probably discounted when judging whether he would wind up in the top 3.
Bottom line, he misjudged that he would be better than the rest of the field after rounds, or better than at least 2 other runners in the field, when it comes to making the team, but that doesn't make him an idiot, just overconfident, and without good information in advance about Brazier or Lutkenhaus.
How does the best American all year miss the team? Front running doesn’t work. Discus
I will keep it simple. No. The one race I have seen him run out of gas. I really thought he was going to win. But the field was amazing. Hope he makes it by Diamond League.
Part of why the 800 is so fast is top guys realized that's a bad way to pace. Going sub 12 down the backstretch is wild
Yeah, he played perfect pacemaker. That’s the last thing you want to do frontrunning an 800. The race strung out so everyone stayed patient until 500. Brazier and Hoppel got clean rides (Hoppel a bit wide but OK) with Millers tactical blunder. Luthkenhaus had the perfect ride to stay patient and wind up from 200 out. If you run like a DL pacer would be instructed, you’ve done it wrong.
Maybe, but if Lutkenhaus had not run beyond any and all expectations then Hoey makes the team. So, but for a once a century Jim Ryan level talent and that talent running a three second PB!!!! (over other insanely great PBs leading up to it), we would not have this thread.
Blame lies with me. I thought he was ready run low 1:42 from the front and finish top three even if he tided up a little, so that's the plan we went with. Unfortunately there were just three athletes better today, it's that simple.
If anyone out there thought a 16 year old was going to roll over the top of nearly everyone, you're a way better judge than me.
So good to see DB back running fast again. Stories like that are great for our sport. Congrats to DB, Cooper (freak) and Bryce on making the team, and everyone else in the field, especially Harris who has finally knocked off his PR from 2018 after battling back from injury.
The US is finally where it should be in this event. Best US 800m race since the 1984 Olympic Trials.
JR
JR, thank you for responding here. Curious, what splits were you hoping to see?
Ideally he would have been 24.5 and then something between 49.7-50.0. IMO when you are at that level, these small differences add up in the last 100m.
People can criticise the tactics, but we thought that was what works best for him at this point in his career. Last year he sat in and came 4th, this year he takes the lead and comes 4th. So we just need to go back to the drawing board and get.
Never been a fan of the "front running doesn't work" argument.
That being said, Nuguse (who beat Hocker/Strand handidly at Pre) and Hoey (who hasn't lost to Hoppel this year) not being on the team is definitely supporting to that argument
well
you have viren centrowitz walker rudisha elG Bekele, etc. running from the front to good effect for the win, abeit at the right time and place.
with Hoey and Jacob, there is probably a bit more adrenalin in the system than normal, where you "feel" for the pace is incorrect, resulting in 1 or 2 seconds even, too fast for front running, and you're gassed in the end. this happens in MMA all the time, it is called a adrenalin dump. this happens in the world cup, where the best athletes have a new level of adrenalin, and hit the ball way too hard in critical moments, like penalties,
with the most excellent amount of adrenalin, nobody can handle that without iron will, and you get blind sided by it.
basically you don't want to lead all the way at a fast pace, that is suicide.
you can however lead at a slow pace, and control the situation, and have full energy for the last lap, and if the field is not strung out, giving them the free ride perfect trip, and have chaos to deal with at the bell, leading has advantages.
hoey would have done well with a 50.0 ish, and jacob would have done well with 2 seconds less in the OG where he was gassed.
sit and kick, well that isn't for the goat and brave, and is of course optimal if you can get away with it.
none of the records however are run with sit and kick. zero.
Never been a fan of the "front running doesn't work" argument.
That being said, Nuguse (who beat Hocker/Strand handidly at Pre) and Hoey (who hasn't lost to Hoppel this year) not being on the team is definitely supporting to that argument
Front running typically only works when there is nobody else close to being good enough to beat you or if you can slow everyone else down and turn it into a kicker’s race (ie Hocker in the 5k or Centrowitz at the Olympics). Going against top competition, it might just rabbit others to a fast time. Many of the best ever lost Olympics and World Championships trying to front run.
People are saying he went out too fast, and that was exactly my reaction live when I saw the splits, even before the last 200, I was worried he might not win, or even make the team. I thought 3 might outkick him, though certainly not Cooper. People are forgetting Miller almost got him at the end.
However, I wonder if was just pure adrenaline and poor pacing that got him to 24.15 and 49.29 (25.14 for the 2nd 200m), or did it have something to do with the other runners?
Brazier actually got off the curve first and led with 12.32, but was content to not lead after that and let Miller and Hoey blaze past him with an 11.78/11.79 on the backstretch. You see, Hoey wants to frontrun it, but others aren't necessarily going to give him the lead — he has to take it from them. With Miller/Brazier/Hoppel right there, he had to run that blistering pace. After thay, was he supposed to slow it down significantly and run a 25.7? Maybe. But that's hard to do, and if he does that, Miller might take him on, which means he has to then surge past Miller again. While that might have worked at Worlds, it's hard to predict.
Point is, sure, he went out too fast. Maybe adrenaline and poor pacing had something to do with it, but he also almost didn't have much choice either.
The reality is Hopel ran 1:42.49 for 3rd and a time Hoey has only beaten twice in his life. That's the 8th best 3rd place time in the history of the world.
The fact that rojo was able to find this statistic is both very confusing and highly impressive
How does the best American all year miss the team? Front running doesn’t work. Discus
Front running in an 800 is OK. Going out at 49.2 on a windy day is not. Note that Wanyonyi went out in 50.0 last year in Paris minimal wind. In the world record, Rudisha sent 49.2 but there was no wind and he is a superior athlete. 50.0-50.5 should’ve been the target for Hoey. As it worked out lotta clean races behind him.
Here's my take. Hoey is going for it. If you ask me will he run 1:41 this season, I'll say yes if he gets in the right race.
He had a bad tactic at nationals and paid the price.
But, I fancy him to break the American record this season.
He has courage, and will get a race where he doesn't die in the last 100m and will run a huge PR.
Mark my words, to be a WR holder you need to try and fail and try again running from the front, like Wanyoni, El G, Rudisha, Jakob, Kipyegon, etc.
"Maximalist readers are likely asking their screen right now “wait, so can a country send five athletes in one event if they have the World champ, the DL champ, and three more studs in on ranking or standard?” In a word: no. There is a hard cap of four athletes per event, per country. Historically, when given the option USATF always fills its fourth spots with the World champ and top-three non-World champ finishers from USAs."
JR, thank you for responding here. Curious, what splits were you hoping to see?
Ideally he would have been 24.5 and then something between 49.7-50.0. IMO when you are at that level, these small differences add up in the last 100m.
People can criticise the tactics, but we thought that was what works best for him at this point in his career. Last year he sat in and came 4th, this year he takes the lead and comes 4th. So we just need to go back to the drawing board and get.
JR
Why the drawing board? His already-notorious pre-USA workout vid explains a lot as does his unnecessary 49.2 in the lead into the wind. Even if he went too hard in days immediately prior, and too hard on that first lap on the day, that 1:43.0 makes all USA teams... except this one.
Its not like he blew up with a 1:44.8.
No need to throw out what's been working perfectly up to this moment just because of one misjudged race.
He's gonna go 1:41 in the near future maybe next DL meet.
Time for that 1k WR attempt to hype sponsor monies.
Revisit the 1978 Euro 800 final and ponder the bronze medalist's progression.
Maybe, but if Lutkenhaus had not run beyond any and all expectations then Hoey makes the team. So, but for a once a century Jim Ryan level talent and that talent running a three second PB!!!! (over other insanely great PBs leading up to it), we would not have this thread.
True but that’s with the huge break of Brandon Miller inexplicably drifting out on the backstretch and getting passed on both sides…If Miller just waits for the turn I have no doubt his PB is under 1:43 rn.
Yes, his second 100 was crazy, especially with that wind. But if you would have had to be a genius to expect a 16 year old to run low 1:42 and push you off the podium, then you're no idiot just because you didn't expect that to happen.
You mean the same Hocker who hasn't won a 1500 since Paris? He had to run a 5k dawdle to win.
Hocker will be at the World Championships. You will be at home writing about him.
I will probably be discussing quite a few of those who lose at the worlds. That's the nature of this site. It isn't a qualifying round for the champs. Or maybe Hocker thinks so?
