Yared just ran a dumb race. You can't lead from the front against those massive kickers. Losing strategy but he's still in insane shape.
I disagree. He is good enough to win the race that way - he did essentially the same thing at Pre and even though he lost to Laros he still beat Hocker by a second and ran under 3.46.0.
I think the issue today was his shape. His tank was getting dangerously close to empty after what, 3 big indoor efforts, 6 Grand Slam races and Prefontaine. An unnecessary 3.32 in the heats put him right in the danger zone and he just looked drained today. He didn't look relaxed at all after 800m (looked strained) and looked even worse after 1200.
Nuguse outdoor races before trials last 3 seasons:
2023: 3
2024: 2
2025: 7
Rest my case.
Then how do you explain Strand? Ran cross country in the fall, broke the NCAA 3k record in December, broke the NCAA indoor mile record in February, ran full indoor and outdoor track seasons including conference and national championships. Ran 14 outdoor races before these championships.
Did Yared not watch Jakob at Paris last year??? Same strategy, same result (except one place further back). Times have changed and you can’t just run away from the field anymore.
Don't really get this comment. If you're racing against kickers running hard from the gun is exactly what you do.
Nuguse ran the strategy he needed to today. You could say he got out too hot but at the end of the day he just got outrun.
Koech and Strand are the real f*cking deal.
The US is the absolute best 1500m country in the world right now. What a time to be alive.
It’s not definitively always true I guess. If you back your tactical sense, a slow race doesn’t always go to the kickers. See Nathan Green beating Sahlman and Strand at NCAAs.
Watch Kenyan Trials where Tim who I wouldn’t say is the world’s foremost kicker at this stage punched his ticket in a 3:48-9 race. While Festus Lagat is probably the second best kicker behind Reynold there, Tim got to the front at the right time. He had enough distance on Lagat and then he made Komen run wide and have distance to make up.
Kessler and Nuguse are fond of saying a slow race is “random,” but to me that’s not really true. It favors kickers but also positioning , top-end speed and keeping your cool. I think honestly three of their greatest strengths. Neither guy shifts gears or has shown the big finish (sub-12.7) off a fast pace like today.
I disagree. He is good enough to win the race that way - he did essentially the same thing at Pre and even though he lost to Laros he still beat Hocker by a second and ran under 3.46.0.
I think the issue today was his shape. His tank was getting dangerously close to empty after what, 3 big indoor efforts, 6 Grand Slam races and Prefontaine. An unnecessary 3.32 in the heats put him right in the danger zone and he just looked drained today. He didn't look relaxed at all after 800m (looked strained) and looked even worse after 1200.
Nuguse outdoor races before trials last 3 seasons:
2023: 3
2024: 2
2025: 7
Rest my case.
Then how do you explain Strand? Ran cross country in the fall, broke the NCAA 3k record in December, broke the NCAA indoor mile record in February, ran full indoor and outdoor track seasons including conference and national championships. Ran 14 outdoor races before these championships.
Exactly. Perhaps Yared's 332 heat on Thursday was dumb because totally unnecessary. Everything else was just good training. No way he's still in the hole from Pre unless he actually injured himself. This is a 1500/mile, not a 10k or marathon.
Then how do you explain Strand? Ran cross country in the fall, broke the NCAA 3k record in December, broke the NCAA indoor mile record in February, ran full indoor and outdoor track seasons including conference and national championships. Ran 14 outdoor races before these championships.
Exactly. Perhaps Yared's 332 heat on Thursday was dumb because totally unnecessary. Everything else was just good training. No way he's still in the hole from Pre unless he actually injured himself. This is a 1500/mile, not a 10k or marathon.
cudos to the guys for trying different things, being bold.
now people learn how far Jacob was ahead of the pack, and how impressive front running really is,
then there is peaking, and running heats, and running in windy hot conditions
all in, we have upsets.
goose B plus game and front running simply wasn't good enough
kessler isn't quite aware that the other guys level is world class, and he's going to have to focus on finishing and not 5k so much as middle distance.
the workouts for finishing are 800m first 400 in 62 ish and second 400 in 52m and do 5 of them.
and 600m, with 400m in 62 and 200m in 24 flat and run half a dozen.
Hocker wants to maintain contact, and not mad scramble..
and people don't want to try and peak 3 times in 8 months, indoor grand slam and world champs. duh.
PK keeps on doping. Has dropped seven seconds in his PR in one year at 28. USA!!!!
Or a 1:43 guy who is now focusing on the 1500....
Won both of his 1500s last year by ~3 seconds....
But he wasn't a 1:43 guy until this year. He lowered his 800 time by exactly one second this year. The 1500 races he won last year were in lower tier meets. That's why he won them by so much while only running 3:37.3 -- which, by the way, was a 3 second pb. Until last year, he'd only run under 3:43 once. The truth is that until this year, Koech had had a good, but not great, career. He'd showed some promise -- he was second in the 800 at USs in 2022 -- but hadn't ever delivered -- he didn't make out of rounds at Worlds that year. He'd never run in a DL until he won the 1500 at Rabat this spring. And so on. If that doesn't make you wonder, what would?
Yared showed a good finish in the Olympics when he didn’t lead.
Maybe I'm crazy, but before today I feel like Nuguse was always considered a good kicker and now people are acting like he's slow because he got cooked. If Hocker was the one pushing it I don't think he'd have looked good in the final 100 either. It's worth noting that slow-poke Jakob closed as fast as Hocker did in the Diamond League Final last year (12.9, pretty solid for the last race of the season when everyone is tired) and also split 12.6 in one of his indoor races this winter, so it's not like any of these guys are actually slow. I think all of them can kick well and it mostly comes down to who is most efficient in the first 1400.
Nuguse had no business going to the front from the start. Absolutely on him and Ritz. He cannot be a one trick pony. The final in the US cannot be won like that, and you did not need his race and retrospect for this. Let this be the last time he does this kind of self sabotage. As for Kessler, that was all he had. And Strand is so smooth. By the time he races in September, it will have been a very long season. Does he race in Europe in the meantime? Eugene was hot today, the sun was strong. It will not be pleasant for the 5000s tomorrow.
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But he wasn't a 1:43 guy until this year. He lowered his 800 time by exactly one second this year.
It's clear you aren't a big fan of 800m running. 10 of the best 17 times EVER have been run in the last 14 months. Don't even get me started on the DEPTH of those times. We are in a new era of the 800m - across all countries.
It might sound crazy but if Josh Hoey would've chosen to run the 1500 at this years Champs, there is more than a decent chance that Nuguse, Kessler AND Hocker would've all gone home devastated.
....Last years Olympic champ, 3rd place and 5th place finishers all have serious competition when you consider that Hoey also has 3:29.75 1500 speed. absolutely crazy the depth of US milers right now
Maybe I'm crazy, but before today I feel like Nuguse was always considered a good kicker and now people are acting like he's slow because he got cooked. If Hocker was the one pushing it I don't think he'd have looked good in the final 100 either. It's worth noting that slow-poke Jakob closed as fast as Hocker did in the Diamond League Final last year (12.9, pretty solid for the last race of the season when everyone is tired) and also split 12.6 in one of his indoor races this winter, so it's not like any of these guys are actually slow. I think all of them can kick well and it mostly comes down to who is most efficient in the first 1400.
I think you're remembering wrong. The book on Yared is that while he can finish strongly, he has to make the race somewhat fast because he doesn't have the blazing speed in the last 100 in a slower race. Your Jakob-Hocker comp is a little off because Hocker had to stop-start his kick in the Paris Final after Jakob blocked his pass, which definitely affected that split.
I mean Hocker running 12.54 while angling out to lane 3 today in a 3:30-low race shows you all you need to know. He ran 12.20 in 3:35 race ('21 Oly Trials).
Jakob is a decent enough kicker, probably a little better than Yared. The problem is where that leaves him? It sure seems like he calculates that a group of 2-3 guys can beat him if he leaves it mostly down to a kick. From what we're seeing the number of guys able to hit crazy last 100 splits in these races is only going up. Strand is somewhat unproven but has flashed the ability. Laros, absolutely. Koech of course. Reynold's last 100 looks at a different level this season though he's left himself so far back, Jakob can probably accrue enough of a gap.
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It’s one less guy to worry about for Jakob with Nuguse out. I wonder though if this will be a net negative for Jakob, as Yared was the most likely to do the work and push the pace in Tokoyo if Jakob tries a different tactic.