The Drew Hunter Dilemma

You never know what can happen on any given day. Someone could get sick, injured, etc.

If he sets a fast pace, he chances of qualifying for worlds increase from 0% to >0.01%.

If he doesn’t set a fast pace, his chances stay at 0%.

This seems like a no brainer, but my gut is telling me he’s complacent with being a 2nd tier US pro and is going to let others set the pace.

Any runner with guts would take the >0.01% chance at glory over the 0% chance.

I would like to see him take a stab at the Marathon.

He needs to start taking drugs if he wants to compete with our top guys. When the US standard is 3:29/12:49/26:50, clean runners aren’t making the team.

bro shoulda done the boilermaker.

But, he can’t. His PR is 13:17 and there’s no scenario where he can compete with three guys that have run in the 12:40s.

It’s impossible and to a lot people, he’ll look like a fool. Would it make sense for a 9:00 guy to push the pace against some 8:40 runners?

Honestly, to be fair to Drew, its going to be virtually impossible without the world standard to make the 5k or 10k for anyone, and not just Drew,

Not at Hot Take at all because this is the most likely scenario for Drew to qualify for Tokyo -- and, the most reasonable.

Running just the 5000 fresh against 10,000 doublers Fisher & Blanks -- don't know about Nico -- and 1500 doubler Cole, is his best chance to beat these guys. As well as to stay ahead of other 5000 specialists including Teare, Jacobs, Nur, Beadlescomb, Hansen, Wolfe.

Drew might choose to run the 10,000. However, he would then be up against fresh Fisher, Young, Blanks, Kincaid -- all of whom have their Tokyo Q. To beat 2 of those guys, Drew would have to hope the pace is moderate through 8000 meters, remain in contact should Grant, Nico or Graham decide to move from 4-5 laps out, then have a fierce kick at the end to nab a podium spot. Certainly possible -- but the 5000 option described above seems a better choice.

Regarding tactics, Hunter will not take the lead in an attempt to time trial a Tokyo Q -- and hope he still makes top-3. In one of his recent post-race interviews (Track Fest or PTF), he was asked about this. Paraphrased reply: "I'm sick of time trialing. I'm just racing."

Unfortunate it's taken Drew so long to figure out how to be a successful professional runner. Several years ago, one would have thought Drew, not Grant, would be sitting atop the US distance world at this point.

Nonetheless, Drew is still in his 20s and has now put together back-to-back injury free years where prs are falling virtually every time he races. Thus, looks extremely dangerous as the guy most likely to disrupt the form chart.

“Drew might choose to run the 10,000. However, he would then be up against fresh Fisher, Young, Blanks, Kincaid -- all of whom have their Tokyo Q. To beat 2 of those guys, Drew would have to hope the pace is moderate through 8000 meters, remain in contact should Grant, Nico or Graham decide to move from 4-5 laps out, then have a fierce kick at the end to nab a podium spot. Certainly possible -- but the 5000 option described above seems a better choice.”

if he “nabs” a podium spot, it still will not matter. Hes not going to have the points or standard to pass Nico, Blanks, Woody or Grant in the 10k. In the 5k he has 5 guys ahead of him with the standard. Blanks is world number 11, Nico 10 and Grant 5. His focus in 2025 should have been running the standard in the 5 and 10 like the other guys listed above. Both standards are ridiculously hard to achieve

Drew's PR is 13:08, not 13:17.

I'm saying he should be realistic. He should aim for the best position possible in the trial race he attempts.

To run the qualifying time he has to take 25 seconds off his best time (set this year), while likely making his own pace in what is likely to be less than ideal weather.

In addition he have to drop all but two of Fisher, Nico Young, Graham Blanks, Ahmed Muhumed, Casey Clinger and Sean McGorty (Muhumed, Clinger and McGorty all finished ahead of Hunter in the race where he set his PR).

At 27:00 pace he's going to get no help - unlike his 27:24.49 in March this year - and smoke is going to be pouring out of the hood after about 7000m, if not earlier.

In fact I'd guess only Fisher and Young of US runners would be able to pull off front-running a sub 27:00 especially in the situation and the weather, and they are about 25 seconds faster over 5000m.

Hunter certainly has guts, as was abundantly clear from his effort in the 10000m trials last year (but so do most top-class runners in terms of being prepared to hurt, and in Pre's race it was generally applied in tasks he had a reasonable chance of accomplishing even at Munich he still had a shot with 250m to go).

To ask Hunter to front run a sub-27:00 10000m in Eugene in mid-summer isn't a question of questioning his guts, it's just questioning the point of setting him out on a task that all logic dictates that he has no chance of accomplishing. In fact I'd guess on given day in 2025, there might not be a dozen guys in the world that could run a gun-to-tape sub 27:00 10000m.

That is correct.

Even if Drew pulls a 2022 Klecker and wins the 10,000, doubt that will be enough to jump from his current 56th place world ranking up into the top-27.

However, Drew did race The Ten where, presumably, he was targeting 27-flat like most everyone else. Finished 11th in 27:24-point.

And, did race a 5000 @ BU early March. Again, presumably targeting the Tokyo Q. Finished 5th in 13:17-point.

Likely was disappointed in both races, thus his recent "I'm sick of time trialing" comment.

Drew's two recent 13:14/3:33 "just win, baby" performances suggest he's in a much better frame of mind now as well as being much fitter than earlier in the year.

Based upon is recent post-race interviews, appears Drew is happy with his recent racing strategies and will be at peace with himself should he make the podium in Eugene but not go to Tokyo.

Sprinters/hurdlers have to run the standard just to make the trials/USA’s. When distance tightens to the standards then maybe we can start to entertain them being as strong.

If he had an entry in a Diamond League race, I’m pretty sure you would have already seen him in a Diamond League race.

This is so disappointing if true. Why not aim higher and try to get to worlds? He is in the prime of his career and has nothing to lose by going for it. Worst case scenario he blows up. But at least he would be trying!!

as a track fan, I hate when 2nd tier US runners become complacent with being 2nd tier runners.

Drew, if you’re reading this, aim higher and full send for the standard! It’s not impossible to achieve!

He’s not going to kick to a spot on the podium. Whenever a surge in the pace happens, he won’t be able to cover it. His only hope would be if it turns into a GST race.

I’ve never seen such lofty projections for a guy with PRs significantly slower than the top runners. That maybe he was as good as Fisher as 18-year olds, does not mean it would have stayed that way for the next 10 years. I believe that Fisher, Young and Blanks are more talented than he is. Given they are 1-3 on the all-time U.S. 5000m list, him not being good as them does not make him a failure.

What good is hoping it's tactical and kicking for 3rd place just to not make the team anyways?

Great point. The dude who got 4th in the latest national championship shouldn't try anything to put himself in the best possible position now.

He said the 1500 (which he predicted he’d run 3:32-3:33) “will tune me up well for 5/10k at usa’s”

He said this in sam parsons most recent YouTube vid.