Seeding is done in 'snake', right? So if it's 2 heats, it'll be 1, 4, 5, 8, 9, 12, 13, 16; then 2, 3, 6, 7, 10, 11, 14, 15?
Looking at 800 and mile (top 3 heat, 2 time Q's; 4 per heat, 2 time Q's):
800:
Heat 1:
1 Aidan McCarthy JR Cal Poly 1:45.19 4 Brian Kweyei SO Clemson 1:46.26 5 Darius Smallwood SR Penn State 1:46.28 8 Yukichi Ishii JR Penn State 1:46.41 9 Justin O'Toole SR Washington 1:46.44 12 Darius Kipyego SR Iowa State 1:46.48 13 Olivier Desmeules SR Penn State 1:46.52 16 Tyrice Taylor JR Arkansas 1:46.62
Heat 2:
2 Tinoda Matsatsa SO Georgetown 1:45.21 3 Abdullahi Hassan SR Miss State 1:45.53 6 Dan Watcke FR Villanova 1:46.32 7 Dayton Carlson SR Arizona Stat 1:46.39 10 Kyle Reinheimer SR Washington 1:46.45 11 Cole Lindhorst JR Washington 1:46.47 14 Koitatoi Kidali FR Oregon 1:46.55 15 Matthew Erickson SR Oregon 1:46.58
Mile:
Heat 1:
1 Nathan Green JR Washington 3:50.74 4 Fouad Messaoudi SR Oklahoma Sta 3:52.66 5 Steven Jackson SR Boston Colle 3:52.71 8 Harrison Witt SR Princeton 3:52.87 9 Laban Kipkemboi SO Oklahoma Sta 3:53.29 12 Harvey Cramb SO Montana Stat 3:53.77 13 Foster Malleck SR Boston Unive 3:53.82 16 Benne Anderson SO Syracuse 3:54.12
Heat 2:
2 Ronan McMahon-Staggs JR Washington 3:51.85 3 Abel Teffra SR Georgetown 3:52.44 6 Simeon Birnbaum FR Oregon 3:52.81 7 Colin Sahlman JR Northern Ari 3:52.82 10 Collins Kiprotich FR New Mexico 3:53.41 11 Rob McManus JR Montana Stat 3:53.59 14 Reuben Reina JR Arkansas 3:53.95 15 Isaiah Givens SO Colorado 3:54.12
I'd guess the auto-advancers are (excluding time Q's, though I think heat 2 would be more likely to have them):
800:
H1 - McCarthy, Smallwood, Kipyego H2 - Matsatsa, Watcke, Kidali (1:42 talent is 1:42 talent regardless of indoor times)
Seeding is done in 'snake', right? So if it's 2 heats, it'll be 1, 4, 5, 8, 9, 12, 13, 16; then 2, 3, 6, 7, 10, 11, 14, 15?
Looking at 800 and mile (top 3 heat, 2 time Q's; 4 per heat, 2 time Q's):
800:
Heat 1:
1 Aidan McCarthy JR Cal Poly 1:45.19 4 Brian Kweyei SO Clemson 1:46.26 5 Darius Smallwood SR Penn State 1:46.28 8 Yukichi Ishii JR Penn State 1:46.41 9 Justin O'Toole SR Washington 1:46.44 12 Darius Kipyego SR Iowa State 1:46.48 13 Olivier Desmeules SR Penn State 1:46.52 16 Tyrice Taylor JR Arkansas 1:46.62
Heat 2:
2 Tinoda Matsatsa SO Georgetown 1:45.21 3 Abdullahi Hassan SR Miss State 1:45.53 6 Dan Watcke FR Villanova 1:46.32 7 Dayton Carlson SR Arizona Stat 1:46.39 10 Kyle Reinheimer SR Washington 1:46.45 11 Cole Lindhorst JR Washington 1:46.47 14 Koitatoi Kidali FR Oregon 1:46.55 15 Matthew Erickson SR Oregon 1:46.58
Mile:
Heat 1:
1 Nathan Green JR Washington 3:50.74 4 Fouad Messaoudi SR Oklahoma Sta 3:52.66 5 Steven Jackson SR Boston Colle 3:52.71 8 Harrison Witt SR Princeton 3:52.87 9 Laban Kipkemboi SO Oklahoma Sta 3:53.29 12 Harvey Cramb SO Montana Stat 3:53.77 13 Foster Malleck SR Boston Unive 3:53.82 16 Benne Anderson SO Syracuse 3:54.12
Heat 2:
2 Ronan McMahon-Staggs JR Washington 3:51.85 3 Abel Teffra SR Georgetown 3:52.44 6 Simeon Birnbaum FR Oregon 3:52.81 7 Colin Sahlman JR Northern Ari 3:52.82 10 Collins Kiprotich FR New Mexico 3:53.41 11 Rob McManus JR Montana Stat 3:53.59 14 Reuben Reina JR Arkansas 3:53.95 15 Isaiah Givens SO Colorado 3:54.12
I'd guess the auto-advancers are (excluding time Q's, though I think heat 2 would be more likely to have them):
800:
H1 - McCarthy, Smallwood, Kipyego H2 - Matsatsa, Watcke, Kidali (1:42 talent is 1:42 talent regardless of indoor times)
If Lemngole can complete the 3K/5K double, she will have four NCAA titles before her sophomore outdoor season starts. There is a real possibility that she could be the first female to win 10+ titles at 800m and up. Kipyego and Favor-Hamilton each won nine and Huber eight. Considering the current depth of women's collegiate running, that would be a stunning accomplishment.
If Lemngole can complete the 3K/5K double, she will have four NCAA titles before her sophomore outdoor season starts. There is a real possibility that she could be the first female to win 10+ titles at 800m and up. Kipyego and Favor-Hamilton each won nine and Huber eight. Considering the current depth of women's collegiate running, that would be a stunning accomplishment.
More likely than not to happen, imo. Since Lemngole's first NCAA appearance in Sep 2022, here's the list of collegians who have finished ahead of her in any race on any surface:
M 800: 1) Tinoda Matsatsa 2) Aidan McCarthy 3) Matthew Erickson F 800: 1) Juliette Whittaker 2) Sanu Jallow 3) Sophia Gorriaran M mile: 1) Nathan Green 2) Abel Teffra 3) Colin Sahlman W mile: 1) Margot Appleton 2) Wilma Nielsen 3) Judy Kosgei M 3k: 1) Ethan Strand 2) Gary Martin 3) Yaseen Abdalla W 3k: 1) Doris Lemngole 2) Kimberley May 3) Riley Chamberlain M 5k: 1) Liam Murphy 2) Ishmael Kipkurui 3) Habtom Samuel W 5k: 1) Doris Lemngole 2) Hilda Olemomoi 3) Pamela Kosgei
It might be a season or two too early to put Kipkurui on a championship podium as his recent performances suggest he's still adjusting to collegiate life/training in general and short track competition in particular. That said, the way he bossed the final k of U20 XC World Champs in Bathurst makes me believe Kipkurui is a quick learner and that his keen racing instincts will come to the fore sooner rather than later.
Appleton has always been a fine finisher, but in some past races she has left herself with too much work to do in the final 400m. The 2025 ACC Indoor Championship mile final was evidence that she's dialed in the timing of her kick. Nor does Appleton lack the confidence to take it to the top strength-based runners over 1500m. Commenting post-race in Louisville:
I kind of just wanted to stick on her [Hartman] and like I knew if I wasn't falling off by a lap to go, I could have it.
In the years since McCabe burst onto the scene in Fall 2021, she's become on some level the hard grafter whose steady performance gains over time have never quite outstripped intensifying competition; a tenacious racer consistently in the mix up top but yet to produce the kind of late-collegiate breakthrough enjoyed by others in her cohort (Markezich and Ramsden, for instance). McCabe can deliver something special this wkend, but she'll need a break (Lemngole's tired legs?) and tactical perfection—which we've seen from her before, at BU in Dec 2021, winning the 3k seemingly by feel, covering decisive moves up front and unleashing that sprinter-like acceleration in the final 100m to maximum effect.
Hartman seems to have passed up a very good opportunity to podium in the mile. Here are her splits when she beat Appleton at BU (while running a time Appleton has never run), and then lost to Appleton at ACC’s:
Hartman seems to have passed up a very good opportunity to podium in the mile. Here are her splits when she beat Appleton at BU (while running a time Appleton has never run), and then lost to Appleton at ACC’s:
Hartman seems to have passed up a very good opportunity to podium in the mile. Here are her splits when she beat Appleton at BU (while running a time Appleton has never run), and then lost to Appleton at ACC’s:
at BU she was in a different heat than Appleton and also had her own pacer. I looked up Appleton who ran in the the "fastest" heat and she was 67.16/1:41.24/2:14.25 and then 3:21.01/4:25.03 finishing in 31. Hartman definitely overcooked the ACC race which she lead for over 1500 m. I do not know if Hartman would have run as fast off the slower "fast" heat pace. I would have liked to see her do DMR/3000 (3000 might be her sweet spot and let the top runners do the 5000 battle night 1).
This post was edited 24 seconds after it was posted.
Hartman seems to have passed up a very good opportunity to podium in the mile. Here are her splits when she beat Appleton at BU (while running a time Appleton has never run), and then lost to Appleton at ACC’s:
at BU she was in a different heat than Appleton and also had her own pacer. I looked up Appleton who ran in the the "fastest" heat and she was 67.16/1:41.24/2:14.25 and then 3:21.01/4:25.03 finishing in 31. Hartman definitely overcooked the ACC race which she lead for over 1500 m. I do not know if Hartman would have run as fast off the slower "fast" heat pace. I would have liked to see her do DMR/3000 (3000 might be her sweet spot and let the top runners do the 5000 battle night 1).
Hartman ran that PB soloing a lot of that BU mile, a day after soloing her 3000m PB at The Track at New Balance.
Hartman seems to have passed up a very good opportunity to podium in the mile. Here are her splits when she beat Appleton at BU (while running a time Appleton has never run), and then lost to Appleton at ACC’s:
at BU she was in a different heat than Appleton and also had her own pacer. I looked up Appleton who ran in the the "fastest" heat and she was 67.16/1:41.24/2:14.25 and then 3:21.01/4:25.03 finishing in 31. Hartman definitely overcooked the ACC race which she lead for over 1500 m. I do not know if Hartman would have run as fast off the slower "fast" heat pace. I would have liked to see her do DMR/3000 (3000 might be her sweet spot and let the top runners do the 5000 battle night 1).
Now looking like BYU has the inside track in the women's DMR; fresh Riley Chamberlain anchoring tips the scales for me.
Same reasoning for NC to win the men's DMR given a fresh Ethan Strand anchoring.
Sticking with Lemngole & Samuel FTWs in the 5000s.
Being partial to Stanford, pulling for Kennedy to score; I.e., top-8. No pundits have her scoring in either the 5000 or 3000. Yet have Bunnage scoring in both. And -- for the moment -- Sophia looks to be Amy's equal.
No Bunnage in the DMR. Doubt Willis races it as well. Thus, a "B" team. However, outside chance JJ puts Whittaker on anchor to scrape out a point or two -- vital if Stanford is in title contention on Saturday.
at BU she was in a different heat than Appleton and also had her own pacer. I looked up Appleton who ran in the the "fastest" heat and she was 67.16/1:41.24/2:14.25 and then 3:21.01/4:25.03 finishing in 31. Hartman definitely overcooked the ACC race which she lead for over 1500 m. I do not know if Hartman would have run as fast off the slower "fast" heat pace. I would have liked to see her do DMR/3000 (3000 might be her sweet spot and let the top runners do the 5000 battle night 1).
I actually believe that her sweet spot is the 10k. That is irrelevant to the conversation here, though, since it isn't being contested. That said, I would have rather seen Hartman anchor the DMR than run the 5. She has tremendous range.
Hartman seems to have passed up a very good opportunity to podium in the mile. Here are her splits when she beat Appleton at BU (while running a time Appleton has never run), and then lost to Appleton at ACC’s: