This quite literally happened at my highschool. The pro guy ran in the 4:20s and got a preferred walk on to a mid major. He is a sub 4:00 miler. I ran in the 4:40s with one sub 4:40 performance at the same program and have ran in the low 4:10s and comparatively a bit better in the 1500m.
And yes, 16:30 with 25-30 mpw and questionable coaching and 14:50 off of 50+ mpw at a consistently successful program are very well in the same talent bracket. See Herriman Highschools top 14 before soles, and after soles. Take Herrimans top 14 and compare it to schools with a similar student population and economic demographic.
More anecdotal and less proveable because I want to maintain my privacy, but I was about a 17:00 flat guy my Jr/Sr year, trained privately for a couple months and ran 16:0x at one of the shoe brand regional meets, and ran 14:5x off of 50-60 mpw 800/1500m training after walking on at my college. So I can personally attest that it’s in the same ballpark.
Im not just pulling these figures out of my butt haha. If one team with roughly 40 distance athletes is consistently putting up a 4:10-4:15-4:20-4:20-4:25 type top 5 spread, while another team with roughly 40 athletes is putting up a 4:25-4:40-4:50-4:55-5:00 spread, team 1 is sending 4-5 of these athletes to run in college if they want to, while team 2 is sending 0-2 of these athletes to college. The majority of the time, team 2s coach will make the excuse “I’m just making sure they aren’t burnt out for college” despite not even sending athletes to college.
The reason that the members coming from top HS programs don’t improve as much in college isn’t because they are burnt out and their potential has been squandered, it’s because they got closer to fulfilling their potential. Of course a lifetime potential 3:55 guy will improve more if he ran 4:20 in highschool instead of 4:00. That doesn’t mean the guy who runs 4:00 in HS and 3:55 in college got burnt out, it just means he got closer to his potential and probably left HS with college payed for at a top program, while 4:20 guy either got books at a crappy program or had to walk on at a decent program.