He could have sat back and let the pace dawdle, in which case he's still getting outkicked by Hocker and Kerr, and potentially a few other wildcards from the pack. Maybe if he positions himself really well under these circumstances and gets the inside line, then he snags a medal, but he's not winning the race this way.
The tactic that he employed gave him the best chance of winning. Maybe it was only a 10% chance, which was reduced to 5% when he overshot the first lap. Still, a 5% chance is better than a 0% chance the other way.
But why do we assume that he gets outkicked the other way? Why do we think that Jingy cannot sprint a last 100-400 well? Hasn't he proven in other races (Tokyo etc) that he has a killer finish? I've seen several where I marvel at his finishing pace.
Because the slower you run, the more shorter distance speed matters because everyone’s legs are relatively fresh. If that race was won in 3:40, I think Jakob finished behind at least 8 people.
I personally think it there is no rabbit involved, it’s nearly impossible for Jakob to win in the 1500m now. Even with a rabbit, I might have bet on Hocker to run 3:26 that day.
Jakob had a great opportunity in 2021 to follow Tim until the line. Now, he’s prey.
There’s a decent chance Hobbs becomes a 1:42 / 3:27 dude & 12:55 to go with it in which I think he also beats Jakob every time
He could have sat back and let the pace dawdle, in which case he's still getting outkicked by Hocker and Kerr, and potentially a few other wildcards from the pack. Maybe if he positions himself really well under these circumstances and gets the inside line, then he snags a medal, but he's not winning the race this way.
The tactic that he employed gave him the best chance of winning. Maybe it was only a 10% chance, which was reduced to 5% when he overshot the first lap. Still, a 5% chance is better than a 0% chance the other way.
I agree with this and also with the other comments about the margin of victory.
Jakob is the fastest 1500m in the world, but not by much. In a single race (no rounds) with a fast pacer, he wins by at least 0.5 against the Olympic field. After rounds in Paris, he knew no one was going to take the lead from the get-go and force a fast pace. Thus, that Monaco TT strategy goes out the window. Instead, he has to decide whether he
a) Sits on a slow pace and tries to kick (maybe ratchet the pace down similar to semis). Maybe that zaps the legs of the kickers, but maybe it doesn't.
b) Try to be his own pacer and go out like TT and hope he can hang on
He went for strategy "b" and it didnt work. I think this could've had more success on fresh legs, but who knows. Also, there is no gaurantee that strategy "a" works given the fitness of the field. It did "seem" like his semi race where he ratcheted the pace made Kerr and Hocker both sweat...but again, who knows if kicking from 1K or 800 out after a slowish 400-600 is enough.
In the 5K, it's a whole different story. No one is running away from him at the gun as he is likely very nearish to WR shape AND no one is outkicking a 3:26 guy after running 4200m. Maybe if the pace was ungodly slow for 4800m, someone could nab him in the last 200, but Jakob knows to go before that. Plus no one is willing to risk trying to run the legs out of him early as you basically commit to being the sacrificial lamb for the field. That's why the entire field was waiting on him to move basically.
It’s reductive to say there are only two strategies. He could chill for 400 like he did at Euros and then ratchet up the pace. That was extremely effective, albeit against weaker competition. He could chill for 500-600-700, then pick it up. But leading from the gun likely makes him a sitting duck. No strategy guarantees success, but the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. Fair to say Jakob’s great gift is his fitness, not his self awareness.
😂 Here's a funny thing: I start reading posts without looking at the author. Many posts I'm 5 words in before I say "f*** that", and I skip. Your post caused me to go back and check.
I don't think he had many good options for sure fire tactics for this race. He could have either raced the way he did off a recent 3:26 and hope to run a fast pace and front run to the win (this obviously didn't work) or he could have gone to the back and let someone else set the pace and tried to kick for the win (I think that Hocker and probably some other slower guys with fast kicks would have got him). His best hope would be for him to start slow and a front runner like Nuguse took it out hard... but that puts the race completely out of his control. The bottom line is that Jakob and Kerr are not dominant right now, so they need to mix it up with the rest and hope that they come out on top... many times they will not win in this field, many times they will. There is no perfect strategy when the field is this tight. The best winning strategy is gong to become team tactics, which is common in cycling, but rare in track. Nordas from Norway got 6th in the final. If Nordas had a prerace strategy to front run at 3:25 pace for the first three laps, then that may have been the best plan for Jakob. But in cycling, there is big money for guys willing to do that...
I don't think he had many good options for sure fire tactics for this race. He could have either raced the way he did off a recent 3:26 and hope to run a fast pace and front run to the win (this obviously didn't work) or he could have gone to the back and let someone else set the pace and tried to kick for the win (I think that Hocker and probably some other slower guys with fast kicks would have got him). His best hope would be for him to start slow and a front runner like Nuguse took it out hard... but that puts the race completely out of his control. The bottom line is that Jakob and Kerr are not dominant right now, so they need to mix it up with the rest and hope that they come out on top... many times they will not win in this field, many times they will. There is no perfect strategy when the field is this tight. The best winning strategy is gong to become team tactics, which is common in cycling, but rare in track. Nordas from Norway got 6th in the final. If Nordas had a prerace strategy to front run at 3:25 pace for the first three laps, then that may have been the best plan for Jakob. But in cycling, there is big money for guys willing to do that...
If you listen to his interview, he states he wants to win the 1500 in a particular and "honorable" (honorable to him and he says so) way, which I assume is wanting to not use others to take the burden of leading. I do think he is just a bit faster than everyone, see season's best times, but not enough win this way without a pacer. In terms of speed, several on here state he doesn't have enough. Let any other top runner pace 3:26 for 1300 to 1400 meters and see what Jacob does to them the last 100-200, see 5k.
But why do we assume that he gets outkicked the other way? Why do we think that Jingy cannot sprint a last 100-400 well? Hasn't he proven in other races (Tokyo etc) that he has a killer finish? I've seen several where I marvel at his finishing pace.
Because the slower you run, the more shorter distance speed matters because everyone’s legs are relatively fresh. If that race was won in 3:40, I think Jakob finished behind at least 8 people.
I personally think it there is no rabbit involved, it’s nearly impossible for Jakob to win in the 1500m now. Even with a rabbit, I might have bet on Hocker to run 3:26 that day.
Jakob had a great opportunity in 2021 to follow Tim until the line. Now, he’s prey.
There’s a decent chance Hobbs becomes a 1:42 / 3:27 dude & 12:55 to go with it in which I think he also beats Jakob every time
I dont get the logic that Ingebrigtsen only have had one good championship race, and that is in 2021 when Tim gave him the perfect ride. You don’t get back to back medals in the world championship by sucking at championship racing.
I don't think he had many good options for sure fire tactics for this race. He could have either raced the way he did off a recent 3:26 and hope to run a fast pace and front run to the win (this obviously didn't work) or he could have gone to the back and let someone else set the pace and tried to kick for the win (I think that Hocker and probably some other slower guys with fast kicks would have got him). His best hope would be for him to start slow and a front runner like Nuguse took it out hard... but that puts the race completely out of his control. The bottom line is that Jakob and Kerr are not dominant right now, so they need to mix it up with the rest and hope that they come out on top... many times they will not win in this field, many times they will. There is no perfect strategy when the field is this tight. The best winning strategy is gong to become team tactics, which is common in cycling, but rare in track. Nordas from Norway got 6th in the final. If Nordas had a prerace strategy to front run at 3:25 pace for the first three laps, then that may have been the best plan for Jakob. But in cycling, there is big money for guys willing to do that...
I will try my best in my next race, thank you.
Would't it be funny if the next post was rojo confirming that this was, indeed, Jingy!? 😂
All it really comes down to is that the shorter the distance is, the lower the margin of error is. It's much easier to win consistently when you're the best runner the longer the distance is.
I agree with this and also with the other comments about the margin of victory.
Jakob is the fastest 1500m in the world, but not by much. In a single race (no rounds) with a fast pacer, he wins by at least 0.5 against the Olympic field. After rounds in Paris, he knew no one was going to take the lead from the get-go and force a fast pace. Thus, that Monaco TT strategy goes out the window. Instead, he has to decide whether he
a) Sits on a slow pace and tries to kick (maybe ratchet the pace down similar to semis). Maybe that zaps the legs of the kickers, but maybe it doesn't.
b) Try to be his own pacer and go out like TT and hope he can hang on
He went for strategy "b" and it didnt work. I think this could've had more success on fresh legs, but who knows. Also, there is no gaurantee that strategy "a" works given the fitness of the field. It did "seem" like his semi race where he ratcheted the pace made Kerr and Hocker both sweat...but again, who knows if kicking from 1K or 800 out after a slowish 400-600 is enough.
In the 5K, it's a whole different story. No one is running away from him at the gun as he is likely very nearish to WR shape AND no one is outkicking a 3:26 guy after running 4200m. Maybe if the pace was ungodly slow for 4800m, someone could nab him in the last 200, but Jakob knows to go before that. Plus no one is willing to risk trying to run the legs out of him early as you basically commit to being the sacrificial lamb for the field. That's why the entire field was waiting on him to move basically.
It’s reductive to say there are only two strategies. He could chill for 400 like he did at Euros and then ratchet up the pace. That was extremely effective, albeit against weaker competition. He could chill for 500-600-700, then pick it up. But leading from the gun likely makes him a sitting duck. No strategy guarantees success, but the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. Fair to say Jakob’s great gift is his fitness, not his self awareness.
Worst part is that he(as this post acclaims) races the 5k perfectly...... and also used to race the 1500 perfectly before his ego got the best of him after Tokyo.
Because the slower you run, the more shorter distance speed matters because everyone’s legs are relatively fresh. If that race was won in 3:40, I think Jakob finished behind at least 8 people.
I personally think it there is no rabbit involved, it’s nearly impossible for Jakob to win in the 1500m now. Even with a rabbit, I might have bet on Hocker to run 3:26 that day.
Jakob had a great opportunity in 2021 to follow Tim until the line. Now, he’s prey.
There’s a decent chance Hobbs becomes a 1:42 / 3:27 dude & 12:55 to go with it in which I think he also beats Jakob every time
I dont get the logic that Ingebrigtsen only have had one good championship race, and that is in 2021 when Tim gave him the perfect ride. You don’t get back to back medals in the world championship by sucking at championship racing.
He got back to back medals in world championships in 1500 from having the _BY FAR_ best physical ability in the races, (he´s 2s+ faster than the rest of the field), not from being good at 1500m racing. Well, to be honest I still believe he is good at 1500m racing, his ego is just ruining it for him, because he wants to show the world that he is good enough to win even when he leads for a too big portion of the race. Why that is more important to him than winning, and why he doesn´t feel the need to show the same thing in 5000m I will never know.
Hocker had a pacer for 1400m that day, much longer than what you can Get from a rabbit in diamond league. His race was more optimal for a fast time than what Jakob will ever get unless Yared paces him for a huge sum of mobey. No way was there 0,7 seconds left which he would need to go sub 3.27.
Do we have any insight into pure speed development in his training? Seems that Kessler (who we can assume has much greater 400-800 potential) does very similar “Norwegian” aerobic work, but also implemented more gym work and raw speed D (40-80 meters all out). To me it seems that Jakob has the requisite speed over the last 4/300 meters, but doesn’t have the same gear shift or mechanics that Hocker/Kerr. He’s fast enough, but it takes him longer to reach his top end whereas they seem to turn it on much more abruptly when it counts
Hocker had a pacer for 1400m that day, much longer than what you can Get from a rabbit in diamond league. His race was more optimal for a fast time than what Jakob will ever get unless Yared paces him for a huge sum of mobey. No way was there 0,7 seconds left which he would need to go sub 3.27.
Except he was tripped up and still closed the last 300 in 39.6. Yeah, good rabbiting but not optimal pacing and otherwise
he lost three years in a row with that tactic though. And he's on fire and was not sick this time. Maybe his tactics is just too hard to execute?
I don’t think so: In 2022 his season best was 3.29.05 with ideal conditions and pacing, and after a lot of tries (to achieve better times) -no wonder he lost to Wightman in an un paced race, when the latter ran close to 3.29 flat (Wightman was simply very good).
In 2023 he was sick, and tactically his race was executed well.
In 2024 he was fouled by legs that were better than ever experienced. Why shouldn’t he fix this in a second try..?