Hocker is the best US 1500 runner of all time

Jim Ryun is the best.

If we were making thousands of clones of one runner and those clones could be trained by all the best coaches, which human would you select?

Nuguse, Ryun, Kessler, Hocker, Centro? Actually, Lagat might make sense but he became an American as an adult pro, so I don't count him.

Who would your clone be if you wanted to create a super-1500m runner? I would not pick Hocker.

Might as well just give Ryun a 3:22 also for bicarb (worth 1s per 800) and today's legal supplements / TUEs. Oh and if you think he was clean, give him another ~8 seconds for EPO (because Katir went from 3:36 to 3:28 in 1 year). Wow! He's gonna be knocking on a sub 3:15 1500!

Ryun: world recordholder at 880/1500/mile, American recordholder at two miles, 13:38 5000 meters when that was one of top times in U.S., and 46-second 440 relay splits for Kansas mile relay -- speed + endurance mix that no one mentioned here has. Once ran his final 220 in a (slow) championship mile in 23.9, ran a 36 final 300 in a 3:38 1500.

Comparing across decades is always tough, and there may be no right answer. Times, honors, times ranked world/U..S. all matter. Here's who's should NOT be considered: a) Webb, because he accomplished almost nothing on the world stage; b) Nuguse (from my alma mater, and I'm a big fan), who may go further up on the list, but just hasn't done enough yet compared to others; c) Mel Shepherd (good history catch by the poster, but only 20-something countries competed in those Olympics; and d) Glenn Cunningham (closer call -- he was a mile world recordholder and Olympic silver medalist, but also too long ago/not enough global competition). One can make arguments for Hocker and Centrowitz, but they would be based pretty much solely (for Hocker) and mostly (for Centrowitz) on their Olympic wins, with less regard for their body of work. Hocker has only two national titles, the Olympic title is his only significant international win, and this (presumably will be his first year ranked top five in the world. Centrowitz won five national championships, but I think his Olympic win was his only significant international win, and I'm not sure he ever ranked top five in the world. Steve Scott got barely a mention here, but should be in the mix for his sustained excellence: he won six U.S. 1500 meter titles, ranked (T&FN) U.S. #1 TEN TIMES and world top 10 11 times, was a world championship silver medalist in the Coe-Ovett-Cram era (when the WC only took place every four years), won multiple high-quality international races in that era, and held the U.S. mile record for 25 years. And for sheer dominance over a much shorter period of time, it's hard to argue against Jim Ryun: he was unbeatable in 1966-67, when he broke world records for both the 1500 and mile by over two seconds (and also found time to break the world record at 880 and the American record at two miles). Yes, he only finished second in the 1968 Olympics, but it was at altitude to one of the great Olympic performances of all time after Ryun had been sick with mononucleosis earlier in the year. When Ryun finally retired in 1972, he still held the three fastest mile times in history and at least the top five (probably more) in U.S. history. No one mentioned in this thread had comparable finishing speed (he once closed a (slow) NCAA championship mile with a 23.9 200 and a 3:38 1500 in with a 36-something 300). He didn't have more international honors because there were no world championships or Diamond League, but he beat the 1964 Olympic 1500 gold medalist (in 1965 as a high schooler!) and beat the 1968 Olympic gold and bronze medalists on multiple occasions. He won five U.S.. 1500/mile titles (if you count the Olympic trials in 1968 and 72 when they technically were not the national championships) and he was T&FN overall world athlete of the year in 1966 and 1967. And he retired at 25 because in that amateur era he could not make a living running track.

Hocker isn't even the best 1500m runner in the world, let alone the best runner in the world. He has a long way to go to pass Jim Ryun, sorry Hocker fans!

"speed + endurance mix that no one mentioned here has"? Hocker running 3:27 and 12:58 is a better speed + endurance mix. I'd also say Kessler running 3:29 and 1:43 is a better speed + endurance mix. Ryun was a phenomenal talent, but I think people's nostalgia is affecting their appreciation of just how good today's stars are.

Wrong. 13:38.2 was only 21.6 seconds off the World Record at the time set by Ron Clarke at 13:16.6. Hocker's 12:58.82 is 23.46 off Cheptegei's World record. So, Ryun is already superior than Hocker in endurance. Ryun's 880/1500/Mile world records are also far superior than anything Hocker has ran in those distances so far.

Ryun absolutely dominated md in '66/'67, and set several spectacular world records. If the '68 Olympics had been held at sea-level he would have been Olympic champion, since he owned Keino at sea-level. By comparison, Hocker has been some sort of also-ran who has had one good day.

If the Olympics had been held in '67 he would have won. No chance in '68.

We haven't seen bicarb drops for the 1500m yet. We've apparently seen them in the 800m. They are also going for it race after race, in contrast to previous years. But the basic question with Jim Ryun is whether we are willing to believe that all of the disadvantages he had from no pacers, sub-optimal pacing, no drafting, 1960s spikes, and slow tracks really do mean that he would dominate today. For me, the math is pretty clear on this one. He really was way ahead of his time in 1967 at his peak. Closing a 3:38 1500m (5 seconds off the world record, comparable to 3:31 today) in 36 seconds on dirt is enough for me to believe. Closing 1200m in 2:46 says that he had the endurance and just was never in a fast paced mile or 1500m at sea level at his peak. If you disagree on 3:25, then tell me which of the following estimates is wrong and why:

1) 1960s spikes to superspikes: 2s per mile

2) dirt track to mondo: 2s per mile

3) no drafting to drafting to 1k: 1.25s

4) even pacing (no 1st laps in 61 with a 53 close): 3-4s

Hocker has the agility of a cat, the racing skills of a Nascar driver, the explosiveness of a jet engine and temperament of Mike McDermott in Rounders. His future prospects look bright.

It was altitude that beat him in '68, not Keino.

Altitude and the training lost to mono certainly contributed, and you can see I am a big Ryun fan. That said, Keino's 3:34.8 at 7,300 feet was a performance for the ages, and I wonder if anyone could have beaten him on that day anywhere in the world. I'm not a big fan of altitude conversions, but one I just looked at said Keino's time was equivalent to 3:26 at sea level. That's almost certainly BS, but I'd say it was definitely superior to Ryun's existing world record, and I don't think Ryun was as fit in 1968 as he was in 1966 and 67. But we'll never know.

Ryun is literally ten times the runner that hocker is

Nice write up and good to remind us of Steve Scott. But speaking of that era, let me ask this?

1. Who is the only American since Jim Ryun to set a World Record in the 1500m?

2. Who has held the American Record in the 1500m for the longest stretch of time in history?

3. Who was ranked #1 in the world in the 1500m in 1982 and by the way ran 13:01 way back in 1985, the 5000m American Record until Bob Kennedy?

Bonus question:

4. The Fifth Avenue Mile is 43 years and 4 months old. Josh Kerr has had the course record for 4 months. Who had the record for the other 43 years?

The answer as you all know is SYDNEY MAREE. He may not have the accolades of Ryun, but if WRs are worth as much as Olympic golds (and many will say more), then he is in the conversation for second with such as Hocker.

1. Most people exaggerate the effect of super spikes, but this sounds good as the difference between 2000s spikes to current spikes seems to be worth about 1.5s in a world class 1500m.

2. As someone who used to race frequently on loose dirt tracks in HS, state of the art mondo (Monaco, Paris or Tokyo track etc.) would definitely make a huge difference. Won't attempt to quantify it myself, though your figure seems reasonable. We'll go with 2s.

3. 1200m of drafting is probably worth somewhere around 1.75s (0.5s per lap) at world class 1500m speeds, so I'd say this is right on. This would fall in line with Jakob and Tim's front running performances.

4. Interestingly enough, Jakob ran a similar performance in the Paris semifinal - 3:32 finishing time, 60 first lap and 2:45 last 1200 with Kerr and Hocker right behind, and none of them were all out. It makes sense that a 3:26 high guy could front run a 3:30 type effort submaximally with some light fatigue in his legs and still recover for the final while two 3:27 high guys come in right behind.

The question then is was Ryun's 3:33 a genuine maximal effort pushing through the line or was he just doing enough to win? Couldn't find much on that. Either way, 3 seconds is probably in the right ballpark for evening out the splits.

Verdict: If we assume all of these advantages stack linearly and that there isn't some sort of point of exponentially diminishing returns as speed increases then yes, Ryun would be capable of 3:25-3:26 today. The problem is, we have no idea how all of those factors (or other outside factors) would interact together. Though now that I actually sat down and went through everything you mentioned, I'm more sold on your argument than I was before. The math on your individual points seems to be sound.

If we apply similar thinking to El Guerrouj, do you think he would still be faster than Ryun in today's conditions (esp. given wavelights)?