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Femke Bol has no shot at Gold

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    NYDCRunner1

    Member since 07/20/2018.

    3,813 posts. Last post 15 hours ago.
    1 year ago 08/10/2024 12:42pm EDT
    re: Kev2

    Kev2 wrote:

    There is an enormous difference between 3000 ' elevation and 7000' like at Mexico City. Not sure that it matters than much but maybe there is some table that would quantify this.

    A table is not needed. All you need is empirical evidence.

    Prior to the mountains, Bol PB was 51.45. She went to the mountains and ran 50.95. That is a .50 seconds improvement. She is no prodigy so something else was at play. She returned from the mountains and ran 51.3. You can claim that so close to the Olympics she's in form and the 51.3 is a true statement of her capabilities.

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    NYDCRunner1

    Member since 07/20/2018.

    3,813 posts. Last post 15 hours ago.
    1 year ago 08/10/2024 12:45pm EDT
    re: 800 meter man .

    800 meter man . wrote:

    NYDCRunner1 wrote:

    Yes it is. Bol ran that 50.95 at altitude. That mark, as any reasonable knowledgeable athlete agnostic person knows, is not an accurate judge of a an athlete's ability given the altitude. Similar performance to Thompson of South Africa who had never run sub 10 before, but suddenly ran 9.86 at that same event. Similar to Kambundji who had not broken 11 this year, but suddenly ran almost the Swiss NR of 10.90. All three returned to sea level and have performed at their true level. None coming close to the altitude marks they set at that event in the mountains.

    Paris Olympics is here at sea level, and it is claimed the track is super fast. We will see in a few days what's what.

    It’s all kinda moot post today’s 47.9 split, but no altitude conversion in the world puts 50.95 400H @ under 1000ft as equivalent to the 51.45 needed for a 0.8 gap between Bol and Syd. Even the harshest conversions altitude correct 50.95 to ~51.1.

    If anything, the Hayward track being fast as all hell is significantly more impactful than <1000m elevation in a 400H.

    You people really don't understand T&F do you. Dude, she did not run 47.9. Splits are artificial constructs.

    50.95 was done at altitude. You should be looking at the 51.30 she ran in the London DL.

    But it is certainly all moot!

    50.37 the new world record done at sea level on a track that is no where close to Hayward.

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    NYDCRunner1

    Member since 07/20/2018.

    3,813 posts. Last post 15 hours ago.
    1 year ago 08/10/2024 12:47pm EDT
    re: 800 meter man .

    800 meter man . wrote:

    Under 1000m ***

    Over 3,000 feet

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    NYDCRunner1

    Member since 07/20/2018.

    3,813 posts. Last post 15 hours ago.
    1 year ago 08/10/2024 12:50pm EDT
    re: Freebirdorchestra

    Freebirdorchestra wrote:

    800 meter man . wrote:

    It’s all kinda moot post today’s 47.9 split, but no altitude conversion in the world puts 50.95 400H @ under 1000ft as equivalent to the 51.45 needed for a 0.8 gap between Bol and Syd. Even the harshest conversions altitude correct 50.95 to ~51.1.

    If anything, the Hayward track being fast as all hell is significantly more impactful than <1000m elevation in a 400H.

    Y'all are forgetting that Bol also ran 51.30 in London, so that gap between them is .65 absolute max.

    I'm not buying that the Swiss track is that insane. Only one other hurdler got a SB. The notion that the track was insanely fast came from 100m and 200m times with barely-legal tailwinds.

    Absence of evidence...

    Check out the 100M and 200 sprints and times that most ran at the mountain meet. Check out their times that they also ran in the London DL and elsewhere at sea level. Always go with empirical evidence.

  • oh how sweet

    Anonymous Poster

    1 year ago 08/10/2024 12:50pm EDT
    re: NYDCRunner1

    Why are you all still arguing semantics? 51.3 50.9 blah blah blah...Bol is an Olympic gold medalist. It doesn't really matter whether you think she is a prodigy or not, she is going home with Olympic gold, so who cares about altitude and all that crap?

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    NYDCRunner1

    Member since 07/20/2018.

    3,813 posts. Last post 15 hours ago.
    1 year ago 08/10/2024 12:51pm EDT
    re: The guy who bets all the money

    The guy who bets all the money wrote:

    Anyone who thinks that SML isn’t still an overwhelming favorite is nuts.

    Femke ran 51.3 two weeks ago in London on a fair track. SML ran 50.65 five weeks ago and 48.75 in an open 400 (equivalent to 48 low in a relay) with no competition almost two months ago. You don’t think Syd is fitter than she was when she ran those times? The athlete who has peaked perfectly at every championship for her entire career is gonna get this one wrong? The athlete who has literally never run even a mediocre race in her entire career?

    When Syd ran 50.68 in 2022, she split 47.91 in the relay in a race the US won by 3 seconds. How much faster do you think she could have gone if she was chasing someone, or if she hadn’t run 3 rounds of the 400h, including a world record effort?

    Syd is going to run something like 50.3 in the final. If Femke can do that, more power to her; it will be extraordinary. But it’s very difficult to imagine her winning the race more than about 10% of the time against one of the greatest living athletes who should be in peak form.

    Bloody spot on!!!!

    Take a darn bow!!!!

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    NYDCRunner1

    Member since 07/20/2018.

    3,813 posts. Last post 15 hours ago.
    1 year ago 08/10/2024 12:57pm EDT
    re: Served them a Bol of Whoop AZZ

    Served them a Bol of Whoop AZZ wrote:

    Numbers are real wrote:

    The track is within the limits of what is considered "altitude" and that time is equally as legit as the WR that Sydney ran on a bouncy track where wind is often an uncertain factor.

    But 0.8s was always going to be an inaccurate number because even if you compensate for altitude (and by doing so, treating the 400mH as equal to the flat 400m, as there is no calculation available for the 400mH) the gap would be about 0.5s.

    Bol's 50.95 and SML's 50.65 are both still pending ratification. So if both are ratified, Bol gets the ER and SML the WR and there will be no asterisk by either time.

    We are waiting for the 50.37 to be ratified. I do not care about the 50.95 not being asterisked it is not a true judge of Bol's capability. It was a .50 improvement from Bol's previous best and when she returned from that mountain she ran 51.3 which was 0.15 improvement from her previous PB of 51.45. That 51.30 is s truer mark.

    Hmmm, perhaps Sydney should go run in that mountain now. Given that there is a possibility of a .50 improvement and given that she is substantially faster than Bol and in the shape of her life, the probability is very very high that she could run 49.4 at a minimum for the 400H.

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    NYDCRunner1

    Member since 07/20/2018.

    3,813 posts. Last post 15 hours ago.
    1 year ago 08/10/2024 12:58pm EDT
    re: ha ha ha

    ha ha ha wrote:

    800 meter man wrote:

    No it isn't. Syd's WR from hurdles was 50.65. Bol ran 50.95 three weeks ago at Resisprint La Chaux-de-Fonds.

    50.95 at altitude... remember? Sydney will push herself to break 50 while Bol will probably run 50.9 or 51 flat.

    Nahhhh. Nope. As it turned out, Sydney effortlessly floated destroying her old world record. Wanna guess who pushed and pushed and pushed?

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    NYDCRunner1

    Member since 07/20/2018.

    3,813 posts. Last post 15 hours ago.
    1 year ago 08/10/2024 1:00pm EDT
    re: OP heree

    OP heree wrote:

    Femke Bol = silver at best wrote:

    Mixed Relay: out of question

    4x400: ouf of question

    400h: out of question

    Should she even be part of the relays as The Netherlands have no shot at Gold in both?

    Better to stay fresh for the 400h to fight for her individual bronze.

    I was right about Femke having to fight for her bronze

    You called it perfectly. Take a bow. You have receipts!

    Now look who is eating crow...

  • registered

    NYDCRunner1

    Member since 07/20/2018.

    3,813 posts. Last post 15 hours ago.
    1 year ago 08/10/2024 1:01pm EDT
    re: 3...

    3... wrote:

    800 meter man wrote:

    What do you mean individual bronze in 400H? She's the clear world #2 in the event and it's not remotely close. Dramatically higher odds of Bol upsetting Syd than the field upsetting either of them for gold/silver.

    (The gap between Syd and Bol this season is 0.3s; the gap between Bol and world #3 this season is 1.5s lol)

    this didn't age well

    Nope - not well at all

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