So does Parker Wolfe got to Paris?

Uhh…Shalane Flanagan ran for UNC…if I remember correctly I think she had a successful career? 🙄

That's not how it works. Right now Wolfe is simply ineligible no matter how many US athletes drop out. He needs other countries' athletes to drop out to clear more space for him in the rankings.

If Blanks drops for some reason, then McGorty in 6th place goes as he is the next placed athlete with the standard or ranking.

whoops wrong thread - sorry

Becaues yesterday's race was run in 81 degree temps.

He ran 13:13 in December off of xc training, then didn't do any time trials during the season. I actually think that's fine. The odds of a 20-year-old making the 5000 team were remote if you were coach Milt planning out the season in December.

The reality is if he starting worrying about times/Olympics instead of just getting ready to be in supreme shape in June, he may not have finished 3rd in the Trials or won NCAAs.

That being said, if he doesn't go to Paris, it will because they had that abomination of a race at Wake Forest back on April 19. In that race, Wolfe CRUSHED the collegiate competition winning in 13:27 (2nd was 13:36) but that was the same meet where Cole Hocker was the only finisher in the pro 5000. I talked to John Hayes - the Wake Forest director - about why there were two separate races and he said they couldn't let the college kids race in Hocker's section as the college coaches feared some of them might have tried to run with Hocker and blown up and not made it regionals.

If Wolfe had been in that race and just hung with Hocker and run like 13:13 (Hocker ran 13:08), he'd be in the top 45 but there was no way of knowing that at the time.

As has been pointed out it's highly unlikely. And in a bizarre twist of fate it's guys like Jakob and Nordas who easily could have been way under the standard that will contribute to keeping him out.

I just don't get this - when he won NCAA's both he and his camp should have been like "we have a legit shot to make the team" - which clearly he did, and tried to set some kind of race up. PTF was the Sunday after (Jacobs ran 13.18 there but the race wasn't really set up) and there was a full 2 weeks from there to get something. It's just so heartbreaking to see because it is just so insanely hard to make this team and be top 3 on the day that it matters, that there are simply no guarantees come 4 years time.

It would need a miracle for him to get in - I don't even see the math v reality playing out in any way for him. Such a bummer

That's interesting about Beamish. Aug. 5 is the prelim round of steeple. And then Aug. 7 is the first round of 5,000 and the evening is the steeple final. So if he knows he made the final on Aug. 5 he would scratch on the 5,000 and then is that enough time to fill up the field or they just leave it minus one. Or does he have to run it if he's not going to scratch on the steeple too?

I kind of think he won't hold onto his 5000 spot because he has confidence in the steeple.

Broken body? He ran 13:02 in December, got a stress reaction in his femoral shaft due to al leg length discrepancy that is aggravated by running on the indoor track and missed a few weeks, and is in great shape in July. It's not really that shocking, is it?

Ever heard of cross training? Parker Valby and Grant Fisher can teach you about it. I mean Fisher went from bombing the Trials last year due to a stress reaction to running a 7:25 AR a few months later.

Jakob missed weeks/months of training this winter as well and is similarly back in shape.

In that scenario, could Beamish scratch the 5000 and still be eligible to compete in the steeple final?

Yeah, Beamish is gonna drop the 5K. Unless they’ve changed the honest-effort rule, he’d have to run the 5K semi (hard enough to convince the officials he was serious) or scratch everything after it.

So Beamish and Wildschutt are likely to scratch. Does Blanks get taken out as well because Wolfe finished third? If so, then he would only need one more guy to drop, right?

And Teare is on that list and will be dropped, right?.... So that's four dropping... so he's likely in?

They can't "just send Wolfe" if he doesn't make it in by ranking after all scratches/entries are known. If enough scratch that he is ranked high enough we will send him. The reason we can send Blanks instead is that he has the standard and can go regardless of ranking.

This seems to misunderstand the system. If one or both of those guys had made the standard, they'd still be keeping him out. They take everyone who made the standard (limited only by the 3-per-country rule) and fill out the field with the rankings. So the Norwegians would be in Wolfe's way even if they hit the standard because they'd still be taking up spots toward the field size limit.

Yes the Norwegians have no impact besides being higher-ranked. And Beamish will 100% scratch based on that schedule. Wildschuut is a spot but the problem is there is no way Mechaal should/would scratch the 5,000. He's equally competitive in each event similar to Kessler. One other guy is Lobalu — I see him on Road to Paris, but thought he was ineligible for Worlds/Olympics, but he did compete at Europeans so maybe that changed.

Good point, you are right and you are right I don't quite get the system but that explains it better. He just needed/needs a much higher number and he doesn't have that unless there are (as TL said) some inexplicable scratches.

Qualifying for the Olympics are not something that you can last minute luck into. The rules are clearly known, well in advance. Nico saw a shot at the Olympics and sacrificed some points for his team to focus on his own best interests. Blanks capitalized on his XC fitness and knocked out a qualifier early. Wolfe was primarily focused on closing the gap and winning NCAAs, not necessarily thinking this was his Olympic window. After indoors, UNC should have gotten him in a fast race this spring, but the one they chose was not fast enough. Maybe he can get into a few fast races in Europe in the next month before turning back to XC training if he doesn't end up qualifying.

The system isn't wrong for penalizing NCAA athletes. Either NCAA should be doing what it can to support chasing the standard or athletes that need the standard or will be close should consider redshirting or working with their coach to prioritize their Olympic chances. WA shouldn't change to accommodate a domestic interscholastic competition.

I really don't understand why people get confused with this stuff.

The other thing was NCAAs were painfully slow and I'm not sure if they were even eligible to count due to the NCAA's asinine decision not to get in line with the spikes regulations.. It was an opportunity with the bonus points. You can make the same comment with James West (UK) and their recent Trials. I'd never fault a guy for trying to win the race over chasing some points/times that may or may not even matter. I would blame the NCAAs if it emerges that the points wouldn't even count due to the obvious solution of just banning illegal shoes in their races. To Salvitore's point it is frustrating that the only attempt at a time outdoors was at that Wake Forest race. It might behoove those organizing these outdoors meets to have a similar level of coordination to indoors where there're a lot of races specifically designed to chase times. Outdoors it's far more all over the place in the 5,000. The 1,500 has a bit more organization with Bryan Clay.