Ingebrigtsen just toyed with all of Europe... (1500m)

And I think this scenario is very logical, as we have indicators, that all the runners mentioned above have made significant progress since their last face off. Wightman is still a bit of an unknown, but he has run 1:44.10 this year and won NY GP.

Not all of them will run sub 3:28, only the winner. Good question is if it will be Jakob or someone else.

The argument made time and again on this and other threads is that Jakob has a kick. Yet as other posters have also said, when it comes to the 1500m he doesn't - not compared to runners like Kerr and Wightman, and, as I said, nothing like a Snell, Ryun or Coe, for whom the kick was a defining weapon. That is why I and others have compared him to El G - not in terms of achievement - but how they race and how they win. Against kickers, Jakob has to run a long sustained finish, as El G often did. But Jakob is not as dominant in the event as El G was. His task is therefore harder.

Yes, and I agreed with all that but pointed out tat Jakob had been more dominant in the event than what El G was at the same age, so that is a moot point/unfair to compare a whole career against someone in the start of theirs.

But yes undoubtedly harder.

Jakob needs to be better than he was in last years monster season to be able to secure the win. Its enough that just anyone in the field is in a better shape, or have a better day for him to "loose" as people call it. I am not sure that it is possible to have it in his hands with this timeframe, and that he might be dependent on someone (maybe multiple people) else not having their best shape or race if he is going to win.

However, I don't think, for instance, winning a silver or a bronze medal is "loosing" either as some people here call it. Kipchoge needed two olympics to win a gold, El G took 12th in his first etc.

“No kick”. “Doesn’t hang on people’s shoulders”. -So you didn’t watch the last Olympic final..?

he has 5 x 100m segments 13 high to 12 high.

after 1 km of 14x 100m segments.

that is 800m 145 speed at the moment. which is nothing special,

actually any 1500 guy that closes like this, has the 144 to 145 every day of the week.

he's getting sharp

Jakob is just about the most perfect runner for destroying speed based 800m runners in the 1500. It’s like he was developed in a lab. He’s a strength based 5k runner without peer that has developed the perfect way of crushing runners that rely on a kick.

However, he has made mistakes in races. He lost to Wightman because he slowed the third lap and allowed Wightman to sit and be in a position to attack on the last lap. Wightman bit *twice* and was still able to hold on.

When people say Jakob doesn’t have a kick, it’s not a criticism. It’s underlining how he runs. He even says it himself! He calls people out for not having the courage to front run and blow people away.

I think Jakob will run 28 low in Paris. I don’t think he’s in peak shape at the moment. The question that no one knows is whether or not Kerr will run sub 28.

Pr 2023 we know that Jakob is the best kicker of all active athletes in a fast race (a lot of examples: Tokyo Olympics, Silesia Diamond League, and so on).

What we don’t know is his kicking ability in a slow race. (Only reference is Euros indoors against Lewndowski in 2021 -too old). My guesses is that he might do OK against Kerr, but not against 1.43 mid/low athletes… (Depends on how slow the race is).

Fair enough point, although it’s a little condescending to call them European B-elite. -One of them was 0.3 sec late to beat Kerr for the WC gold last year (got bronze) and two other’s pb’s very alike Kerr’s and Wightman’s…

What’s relevant is if peak Wightman can beat peak Jakob. Peak Wightman ran 3.29 low in WC 2022 (and beat Jakob). But peak Jakob was 3.27.14 in 2023 -the question is therefore: Could peak Wightman beat / out sprint that..?

No, I don’t think he could.

I think that Wightman race was just about his perfect performance. The fact he bit at Jakob twice and then decided to go with about 250 left. It’s all conjecture but I think if Jakob had pushed that third lap harder, Jake wouldn’t have had the same sprint in him.

What we don’t know is if Kerr can run sub 28. Up until about a year ago, I’d have said no chance, but he’s made a point of closing like a monster - that indoor 2 mile stands out especially.

Agree. And I think Jakob would too (said so in an interview). But a harder third lap might also have had negative consequences for Jakob (might have hit a wall). So Jake could have won anyway (as the overall better athlete that day -that he seemed to have been)…

I actually think its an advantage to jacob that josh is running so well . From the outside it looks like josh and jacob have seperated themselves from the field. Bookies will probably have josh as favorite but the fact is that you learn more from your loses of which josh hasn't had any for a very long time. Remember last year he lost every 15 he ran up to the world champs. So it was a massive suprise to everybody including jacob that josh was the one to beat on the day . Olympics dont come around very often so the thinking will be either to run your own race and hopefully come through for a medal (like willis 2016/08) or sit on the guy who you think is the one to beat ( like jake and josh did at the last 2 world champs) . My pick is that josh will be targetted by most runners that make the final and his target will be jacob. Works in theory but then elbows and space becomes limited causing fatigue by running fast and chopping and changing positions... something jacob doesn't have to contend with if he is allowed to front run. Then youve got hoare and jake who wont just give the trail to josh causing more anxiety and fatigue.

But this is all theory and championship racing is like knockout football . We could very well see somebody that isnt even getting mentioned win the thing. It will be fascinating to see how differently this plays out. Ive said this before but if you make this olympic final you are more than likely 3.30 - 3.31 runner at worst and its unusual but not impossible that someone runs a 2-3 second pb ( adrenaline does strange things) . .. yours sincerely from a running tragic.

Inn all honesty, EA have bigger poll of talents (at any time). But they have bad management of their runners (you can find a lot of explanations of this ... but the most important in my opinion is "underdevelopment").

Countries like Norway or GB must focus on few runners they get every decades.

Jakob had a chance to evolve in a very good and stable environment and it collecting today the fruits of his work.

Jakob won and won well. That was the point of the exercise. But if he does the same thing in Paris when the big dogs are there and are race hardened and peaking and at 80m there are 3 or 4 of them on his shoulder things may end differently.

Warning: Long post incoming

I think his race in this past European Championships actually shows the way to WIN against Josh Kerr and everybody else in the field, hear me out.

I agree with everything you said detailing Jakob, but I don’t think he needs to run 3:28 to win Olympic Gold. Obviously he ran that in Tokyo, but he had someone to draft off of who was running really fast (sub 56 sec laps). It was a perfect race for him to win gold. But we will never see someone pace him again like this, well, atleast not in the traditional sense (more on that later). Moreover, I don’t think it’s Jakobs lack of 50 meter acceleration or strength that cost him in 2022 or even 2023, I firmly believe it was his tactics instead.

Think about this, in Eugene 2022, his first lap was 55.9 and wightmans was 55.75. That’s great for Jakob, except for the fact that his entire first lap was in lane 2. That’s almost 10 meters atleast of extra distance covered as compared to Wightman, who tucked into lane 1, drafted, and ran like that majority of the race. The next 300 meters? Jakob continues running in lane 2 at a fast pace and surges to the front in 1:37.69 at 700m to get ahead of Kipsang. Picture this, if all that lane 2 running for the first 700 meters equated to about maybe 14 meters of extra distance run, what do you think he actually went through 700m in? Probably 1:35 high! The guy wasted so much energy from running in lane 2, and then later on defending his position from Tim Cheruiyot, that he of course could not respond to Wightman, who ran a perfectly even race in lane 1, and used his energy to pass him with 200 to go. Jakob SEEMED like he was lagging on the third lap with a 56.xx, but really if he ran the race with more ideal distance covered, it would have been more like 2:46-2:47 at 1200m. The dude still got 2nd while running like an idiot at what is quite possibly almost WR tempo. There was no better “800m” ability or kick or lack of strength, Jakob just raced like an idiot! Even Katir (similarly to Nordas who I will describe in the next paragraph) got third in this race just by starting in the back, using the least energy. Then, when the pace lagged he made up places, and had tons of energy left at the end to use it to get bronze.

Now as for Budapest 2023, Jakob found an even greater gear beforehand, running 3:27.14 in Silesa about a month before the final. He surely had to be close to 3:26.xx ability by the time August came around…but he lost again. I want to start off by saying that I think his illness affected him MARGINALLY. It negatively affected his fitness and added to his loss. But, I think what hit the nail in the coffin for his still incredible 2nd place finish were his tactics again! Jakob opens up very fiercly in 27.2 at the 200m and then 41.29 for the 300m, tucking behind Kipsang, who then slows them down tremendously after 400 in 56. Then…Jakob gets to the front and slows them down to a 58.xx sec lap at 800m. What was the point of this? He opened up so fast for the first 200 and 300, spiking his heart rate, lactic acid, whatever you want to call it, only to slow it down and then lead to 800m at a much slower pace? Compare that to Kerr. Tucked in nicely in the middle of the pack(I don’t think the position really matters, could have been in the back like nordas) and ran a first lap of 56.66, and a 2nd lap of 58.xx, which was much more even and in lane 1 without needing to pass someone. Even Nordas, who started at the very back. Got 3rd in this race by only needing to run a first 400m in 57.09 and 800m in 1:55.36, more even than both Kerr and Ingebrigtsen and he only finished 0.03 seconds behind Jakob and 0.3 sec behind Kerr. The real takeaway though is what happened on the third lap. The pace slowed ENOUGH on the 2nd lap to allow Kerr to go into Lane 2 and almost even lane 3 to get past everybody in the blink of 50-100m to tuck in behind Jakob with minimal energy usage since everybody was slowing down. It was obvious that this guy was going to shred Jakob on the final 200m, because he ran a smarter race! Jakob was sick + went out way harder than Kerr or Nordas and was in lane 2ish for the first lap, it was bound to be close and it was with his 2nd place finish. This is not even considering the drafting component of Kerr or wightman in these races.

And do you know whats incredible, the guy still gets 2nd even though he runs distance and effort-wise the worst in the top 3 at the two championships. This leads me though to the European Champs 1500m.

He opens up with a 15.1 second 100m 😂 like 5-10ish meters behind the field and then speeds up to a 28.9 200m and catches up to them, while Ignacio Fontes pushed a fast first 300m. The difference though is that Jakob did not rush to the front…He trusted himself and his ability to conserve energy, all while running in lane 1. And guess what? After a 41.73 opening 300m, the pace immediately slowed down and Jakob was able to effortlessly glide around everybody from 400m-500m and get to the front with about 1000m to go. THIS IS HOW YOU DO IT. Jakob does not need to push super hard the first 300m to take the lead and then keep on pushing a fast pace. What he needs to do is stay in lane 1, wait until they slow down after having wasted energy, then go wide and relaxed and get to the front and wind up the pace from there. This allowed Jakob to run a final 400m of 53.3, with the final 300m splits of 13.54, 13.25, and 12.86! He destroyed the field with his strength because he raced smartly. Habz, who had a 1:43 800m PB, got shredded in the final 200m by Jakob. Or Gourley with his 3:47 mile PB, was distanced by almost 2 seconds in the final 100m by Jakob. Part of the problem is expectation. Jakob feels the need to just go wire to wire because it’s the most impressive way to win, but it’s an incredibly stupid way to race, especially in a 1500m with no rabbits. Imagine if he had raced Budapest by starting in the back with Nordas, and then when Kipsang started to lag in pace between 400-600m, he could get to front pretty easily? He would have had energy to fend off Kerrs final 100m of 13.6 as compared to his own 13.9, even while sick!

This is the strategy he needs to use. Start at the back at a pedestrian pace, let them go out fast. Then, when it lags in pace from 400-700m, get to the front with the most energy possible and grind them down with a fast final 800m El Guerrouj style. I hope he does it this way, it’s his best shot without a pacemaker.

I like this analysis and the fact that you went a lot deeper rather than everyone else who only got caught up on 800m speed as the sole factor for winning 1500 championships.

I remember when Centro won Rio one of the most notable details that someone pointed out is that 800 PR didn't even predict the highest finishing positions. Yet here we are years later with many people convinced that the fastest 800m runners in a 1500 race somehow hold all the cards.

That isn't the argument. It is quite simply that in any race below wr pace it will be be necessary to have some kind of kick for Jakob to beat his strongest competitors. Jakob's kick in any race slower than that pace is not as good as some of his competition because he doesn't have the same kind of speed as they have, as his slower 800m performances show. It isn't complicated.

Laughable.