Italian runners coming from nowhere at EUs, Worlds, and Olympics

all of these athletes were very good through the ranks. Their projection throughout their careers makes total sense, as do their timelines. Go look at what they did on the U20 stages. Why not add Ludovica Cavalli to this list. Or Gaia Sabattini. If you are going to be a fan of the sport, just be a fan.

Host countries at major events get to dope with impunity. This is well known. Italy got a pass for the European Championships. Not sure this will hold for the Olympics; however, France will certainly get a pass. Look for several French athletes that didn't do squat at Euros emerge as medal contenders at the Olympics.

Ever head of Michele Ferrari?

Not at all. That's like saying going from 16 min to 15 min is the same as going from 15 min to 14 min. Percentage wise that's a much bigger improvement, and that's not even accounting for diminishing returns.

Also, I would bet Valby has improved by more than a minute over 5k in her 4 years since entering college, but that's not suspicious to you??

Valby is the subject of another thread - indeed, many of them - but I certainly don't see her as a sterling example of a clean runner. She also fits the "too good to be true" description.

There are several reasons why I suspect Battocletti but I would remind you that her father doped back in the '90's. A chip off the old block?

I'm not really arguing that everyone looked exhausted - some did - but they were certainly putting in the effort, while she made it look effortless. I was actually reminded of how Houlihan closed when she ran 3:54.9 over the 1500, which rang alarm bells for me. She'd never looked that good before. The later bust was unsurprising.

so you are living in the Noble Society of Platon, your own clean world.

Look at that:

-1+1-1+1-1+1 ...

nature work only by corruption and it can start from your side.

Nature don't work like that

1+2+3+4+5+...

things like that are only the product of dreams.

Italy did well in jumping ... Is that doping? Tamberi has been a boss for a while. Iachapino has good genes (dad was pole vaulter and mom was long jump medalist).

Their times are not that impressive: many other contenders have better personal bests. Yes, a young generation made some progress, although many foreign athletes weren't in Rome. Just think of Marcell victory with a 10+. When big names showed up they won

Father American, mother British.

Part of Italy's success lies in the fact that it has also taken the Spanish route of doling out passports to whoever needs them.

Maybe you are completely honest, but of sure don't know anything about athletics.

First thing : don't look too much at the number of medals, this is Europe only, not World.

However, some athlete showed amazing improvement, and can be important factor in the world during the next years.

Lorenzo Simonelli, for example, is only 22 years old, and at the moment has the second performance in the world. Is he coming from nowhere ?

This is his career :

LORENZO SIMONELLI (1 June 2002 – 1.88 x 84 kg) (Father Italian, Mom from Tanzania) :

2018 (16y) : 110hs (cm.91) 14”75

2019 (17y) : 60m 6”95
100m 10”82
200m 21”51
110hs (cm. 91) 13”68

2020 (18y) : 100m 10”63
110hs (cm. 99) 13”67
110hs (m. 1.06) 14”04

2021 (19y) : 60 hs 7”82
110hs (cm. 99) 13”34 (4th Junior in the World)
110hs (m. 1.06) 13”79

2022 (20y) : 100m 10”56
110hs 13”59

2023 (21y) : 100m 10”25
60hs 7”59 (4th EUCh indoor)
110 hs 13”29 (2nd place in ECh U23)

2024 (22y) : 60m 6”59
60hs 7”43 (Silver WCh indoor)
110hs 13”05 (Gold ECh – 2° in the World)

ALESSANDRO SIBILIO (27 Apr 1999 – 1.90 x 80 kg)

2015 (16y) : 200m 23”06
400m 51”48
110hs (cm. 91) 14”81
400hs (cm. 84) 56”07

2016 (17y) : 200m 22”13
400m 47”77
400hs (84 cm) 51”46 (Gold ECh Youth)

2017 (18y) : 200m 21”38
400m 47”10
500m 1’03”20
400hs 50”34 (Silver ECh U 20)

2018 (19y) : 300m 33”24
400m 46”73
400hs 50”73

2019 (20y) : 200m 21”28
400m 46”48
400hs 50”72

2020 (21y) : 400m 46”52
400hs 50”46

2021 (22y) : 400m 46”13
400hs 47”93 (3rd SF in OG Tokyo)

2022 (23y) : 400m 45”08

2023 (24y) : 400 hs 48”14 (winner EUCh for Teams)

2024 (25y) : 400 hs 47”50 (NR – Silver EUCh)

In 2022 he had one competition only, suffering a big injury the week after his 45"08.

Sibilio had 2 years without improvement because limited his training, for finishing the University (he has the degree in Engineering).

Palmisano (gold 20 km racewalking) --> reigning Olympic champion, medal contender for the last 10 years at Worlds/Oly level (7th and 5th in 2013 and 2015, bronze medal in 2017, had her best time in 20 km in 2017). Totally reasonable to win gold at Euros.
Trapletti (silver 20 km racewalking) -->Never medalled before but was 8th in Eugene at Worlds and has multiple placing in top 10. A bit of a surprise for sure, not totally unreasonable though.
Fabbri (gold shot put) --> Silver medal at Worlds last year, totally reasonable he wins Euros given that most of his competitors are American/Australian.
Fortunato (bronze 20 km racewalking) --> best placing is 5th 2 years ago at Euros, never in top 10 at Worlds. Not a great progression in PRs in the last few years. A bit suspicious, but it's not like he set a world record or something (he didn't even won his race).
Battocletti (gold 5000 and 10000) -->from 2018 to 2023 won all the gold medals in cross country Euros in junior age groups, then silver at her first senior race. 7th in 2021 with a time only 6" slower than today. Won multiple medals in 3000/5000 in Euros Under-20/Under-23 (defeating mostly the same girls he defeated in this senior championships, apart from Grovdal). Had Hassan shown up, she would never have won gold. She may be a doper, but she doesn't stand out more than her competitors (and less than most east african girls throwing out sub 29' 10000s...) or than Valby (one year younger, slightly slower 5000 PR, exactly same 10000 PR).
Simonelli (gol 110 hs) --> bronze in 2021 in Euro Under-20, silver in Euro Under-23 and 4th in Euro indoors in 2023, silver in Worlds indoor in 60 hs. He went from 13"54 to 13"05 in 2 years (from 20 to 22 years old); for reference, in the same age span Grant Holloway went from 13"39 to 12"98, so yeah reasonably clean (or at least as clean as his competitors, which may mean that all are to the gills, but this means Italian did nothing different from others, which is the point of this thread).
Tamberi (gold high jump) --> won everything multiple times in the last 10 years. Might be juiced or not, but in this championships he was in a situation similar to Duplantis honestly (no true competitors to his level).
Crippa (gold HM) --> ran 2 minutes slower than PR, won multiple medals at Euros (both senior and junior level). Again, might be juiced or not, but he did nothing different from his standard self.
Riva (silver HM) --> ran 1 minute slower than PR, was 5th in 10000 in last Euros. Maybe he was not a big favorite, but in a slower race anything can happen, I guess.
Arese (bronze 1500) --> first senior medal but he ran more than 1" slower than PR and he was 4th 2 years ago at Euros (plus an 8th and a 7th at World indoors and a 5th in Euro indoor in the last three years). If anything, it was time he won something (and the two Belgian guys 2th and 4th with PRs seem more suspicious, if we base only on the results of their respective careers).
4x100 relay --> honestly, given the competition it was a mockery of a race (only team sub 38"40 was Italy).
Tortu (200 silver) --> he ran in 20"41, that is slower than his 2017 PR (when he was 19 years old) and much slower than his current PR (20"10). Nothing to see here, just a slow field overall.
Fantini (gol hammer throw) --> bronze at Euros Under-23 in 2019, 12th in Tokyo, 4th in Eugene, 6th in Budapest and bronze in Euros 2022. She throwed almost 2 meters behind her PR. It's not like she came out of nowhere, she was an obvious candidate for at least a medal (and one of the favourites for gold).
Ali (silver 100 m) --> He had a big jump in 2022. Might be doped, I guess. Who knows. We could say the same for a lot of American sprinters that disappear after colelge careers, I guess.
Jacobs (gold 100 m) --> The 9"80 might have been aided with some juice, but even if it was, he was the clear favourite here (and again, if he ran 9"80 even doping to the gills, 10"02 is nothing to write home about...it might even be his clean ceiling LOL).
Sibilio (silver 400 m hs) --> gold in Euros Under-23 in 2021, 8th in Tokyo, missed most of 2022 due to an injury, than almost qualified to the final in Budapest. The medal makes sense, the time maybe not that much (still almost half second improvement from PR). One of the most suspicious of the lot, honestly (together with Ali).
Iapichino (silver long jump) --> she jumped a 6.91 at 18 years old, which is basically the same mark she jumped now 4 years later. If anything, I'd say her lack of progression is concerning (in terms of marks), definitely not the opposite.
Tecuceanu (bronze 800 m) --> he had a huge jump from 2020 to 2021, then he basically stopped improving. Said jump (from 1'47" to mid 1'44") might have been "assisted" (or might not. Who knows), but the fact that in the last 3 years he improved by less than 1 second doesn't particularly stand out. However before the 4th place in Glasgow this year he never made "big" finals even at Euro level (only a 7th in Euro indoors in all his career), so I agree that he is another quite suspicious.
Dosso (bronze 100 m) --> she had quite a big jump from 2021 to 2022 (at 22 years of age), then from there she stayed mostly on the same level. Said improvement is suspicious, the medal in itself not (she was bronze at Worlds indoor this same year!)
4x400 men (silver) --> Sito had a ludicrous improvement, definitely seems too good to be true. He is also barely 21 years old, so an improvement would make sense regardless, but yeah almost 2 seconds is crazy. The other performed at their standard levels, so nothing strange (of course without Sito they would have finished maybe 5th or 6th).

xemptyzOverall, maybe 5 or 6 are highly suspicious and "out of nowhere" out of 24. Definitely not that much (then yeah they could all be dopers for what we know...but anybody that qualifies for Worlds/Oly might be as well).

NADIA BATTOCLETTI (12 Apr 2000 – 1.68 x 49 kg)

2015 (15y) : 500m 1’35”33

2016 (16y) : 800m 2’12”57
1500m 4’28”62
3000m 9’49”53 (6th ECh Youth)

2017 (17y) : 800m 2’12”06
1500m 4’27”64
3000m 9’24”01 (Bronze ECh U 20)

2018 (18y) : 800m 2’10”53
1500m 4’17”76
3000m 9’13”45 (8th WCh U 20)
5000m 16’15”30
Gold European Cross Country Ch Under 20

2019 (19y) : 3000m 9’04”46
5000m 16’09”39 (Silver ECh U20)
Gold European Cross Country Ch Under 20

2020 (20y) : 5000m 15’46”26 (Gold NC)

2021 (21y) : 1500m 4’09”38
2000m 5’37”60
3000m 8’54”91
5000m 14’46”29 (7th OG)
Gold European Cross Country Ch Under 23

2022 (22y) : 3000m 8’41”72 indoor
5000m 15’10”90
Gold European Cross Country Ch Under 23

2023 (23y) : 1500m 4’03”34
3000m 8’44”96 indoor
5000m 14’41”30 NR
10000m 31’06”42
5 km 14’45” (5th WRCh)
Silver in European Cross Country Ch

2024 (24y) : 1500m 4’03”50
5000m 14’35”29 (Gold ECh – N)
10000m 30’51”32 (Gold ECh – NR)

It isn't about their times but that as a nation they have had a sudden and unexpected surge of success in the sport. That's a WADA red flag.

The point is that it was nowhere near unexpected.

It may be only for morans who don't follow track&field.

...Rocky Balboa!

I'm not saying that we can trust Italian performances, given the country's history with doping in the 1980s, but this notion that the winner must be doping because s/he doesn't seem particularly tired after the race has got to stop. Unless we're talking about a dive or a lean at the end, the winner by definition was not pushed all the way to his or her maximum effort. The losers were absolutely all out to get the winner and couldn't do it, so they are completely spent. This is particularly true at Euro's in typical years because there is usually a major gap between one and two in the distances, and Battocletti's 5 and 10k races were no exception, particularly the ten. Moreover, the winner is elated from the victory and so looks damn fresh.