Allie O!!!!!

lap curve counter wrote:

sp2 wrote:

That's what I thought, too. She was just kind of hopping off the barriers, and landing way too short.

It sort of looks like she forgot some basic things she used to know well about steepling.

But I think she and her coach will obviously see it too, and she'll correct it by trials --and that might be a couple of seconds right there.

I don't know if I think she's 9:10, but she's objectively probably in sub-9:20 shape right now.

When she said a few months back her shot was 1%, I thought she was being purposely conservative, and it was maybe more like 3-5%.

Then Emma and Courtney both went out, and I thought it might be closer to 8 or 10.

Then a whole bunch of girls ran or looked like they might run sub-9:20, and I thought, Nah, even though she's going really well, it probably still is a distant long-shot.

Now, the last few weeks, we've seen some of the top gals run some mediocre races, and Allie's looking better and better, and more and more confident, and is still on a major upswing.

If everything broke right, and Trials goes out hard (like it probably will, unless it's crazy-hot or something), could she maybe hit a 9:18, or even 9:15? I think it's plausible.

Is there a shot that could get her top 3? Yeah, there's a shot.

I'm walking her up to 10-15% now.

Go Allie!

I'd go higher. Watched the full race again and counted the number of curves she was in lane 2, and it was 7 of 14 curves. Plus another two/three curves on the outside of lane 1. Add that up, and it was a 9:19.x performance, which would put her #5 on the US 2024 list. Even if you assume that no one gets to run in lane 1 all the time, sub-9:21 would still be #5 on the US 2024 list. If I were top 6 in an event, I'd tell myself that I had a 50/50 chance, even if it weren't quite true.

I'd say she has at least a 33% chance. No one is really a lock. Constien, Wayment, Jennings, and Mitchell were only 5, 6, 7, and 8 at Prefontaine, dragged to their season's best times in that race. You'd expect Allie to be right in there with them if that race were run next week. And of course, we know Allie always has a good last lap and has a lot momentum.

sp2 wrote:

lap curve counter wrote:

I'd go higher. Watched the full race again and counted the number of curves she was in lane 2, and it was 7 of 14 curves. Plus another two/three curves on the outside of lane 1. Add that up, and it was a 9:19.x performance, which would put her #5 on the US 2024 list. Even if you assume that no one gets to run in lane 1 all the time, sub-9:21 would still be #5 on the US 2024 list. If I were top 6 in an event, I'd tell myself that I had a 50/50 chance, even if it weren't quite true.

I'd say she has at least a 33% chance. No one is really a lock. Constien, Wayment, Jennings, and Mitchell were only 5, 6, 7, and 8 at Prefontaine, dragged to their season's best times in that race. You'd expect Allie to be right in there with them if that race were run next week. And of course, we know Allie always has a good last lap and has a lot momentum.

Well we can't really assume she'll be able to run tighter to the rail in a crowded Trials race than she did here. But she'll very likely improve a bunch on her WJ technique between now and then, and she'll be fully tapered (which I think may make a lot of difference), and she'll be confident enough after this race to push harder earlier.

Yeah, I think she's got a pretty good shot to crack 9:20, and a chance to go a bit better than that.

That should at least give her a fighting chance to get in the mix for top three.

It's gonna be a lot of fun to watch, and she's adding some major extra excitement.

sp2 wrote:

UpperState wrote:

I agree! 100%

*high-five*

I looked over WA rankings, to remind myself who the contenders are (it's hard to mentally keep track of them all), and it looks tougher than I had in mind.

For one thing, I totally forgot that Markezich had just run 9:17 at NCAAs. That's rough.

I think Allie's probably better than Howard and Jolly.

But you have to think Constien, and Wayment, and Markezich (with that race last week) are probably well ahead of her.

Probably Mitchell, too.

Gear had that great 15 earlier in the spring, but hasn't looked all that great since then, and hasn't had a very impressive steeple race. Allie's probably got a shot to beat her.

Boreman I think she might get.

So I'm thinking there's two way ahead of her; two more probably substantially ahead;

and maybe two more that are probably in the same ballpark.

Let's say she ran a 9:18 (a big leap, but it seems plausible).

That probably won't catch the first two, has a decent shot to beat the last two (unless Gear shows something way closer to what she did last year), and might get close to the middle two.

(Is there anybody I'm forgetting?)

I'm pulling hard for her, and she's clearly on a great trajectory right now, but it's a long shot.

She'd have to pop a great performance, and probably hope that 2 or 3 of those gals don't have a very good day.

Fourth to 7th or so is probably a good shot; top three is gonna be tough.

What do you guys think?

sp2 wrote:

I looked over WA rankings, to remind myself who the contenders are (it's hard to mentally keep track of them all), and it looks tougher than I had in mind.

For one thing, I totally forgot that Markezich had just run 9:17 at NCAAs. That's rough.

I think Allie's probably better than Howard and Jolly.

But you have to think Constien, and Wayment, and Markezich (with that race last week) are probably well ahead of her.

Probably Mitchell, too.

Gear had that great 15 earlier in the spring, but hasn't looked all that great since then, and hasn't had a very impressive steeple race. Allie's probably got a shot to beat her.

Boreman I think she might get.

So I'm thinking there's two way ahead of her; two more probably substantially ahead;

and maybe two more that are probably in the same ballpark.

Let's say she ran a 9:18 (a big leap, but it seems plausible).

That probably won't catch the first two, has a decent shot to beat the last two (unless Gear shows something way closer to what she did last year), and might get close to the middle two.

(Is there anybody I'm forgetting?)

I'm pulling hard for her, and she's clearly on a great trajectory right now, but it's a long shot.

She'd have to pop a great performance, and probably hope that 2 or 3 of those gals don't have a very good day.

Fourth to 7th or so is probably a good shot; top three is gonna be tough.

What do you guys think?

Gabby wrote:

sp2 wrote:

I looked over WA rankings, to remind myself who the contenders are (it's hard to mentally keep track of them all), and it looks tougher than I had in mind.

For one thing, I totally forgot that Markezich had just run 9:17 at NCAAs. That's rough.

I think Allie's probably better than Howard and Jolly.

But you have to think Constien, and Wayment, and Markezich (with that race last week) are probably well ahead of her.

Probably Mitchell, too.

Gear had that great 15 earlier in the spring, but hasn't looked all that great since then, and hasn't had a very impressive steeple race. Allie's probably got a shot to beat her.

Boreman I think she might get.

So I'm thinking there's two way ahead of her; two more probably substantially ahead;

and maybe two more that are probably in the same ballpark.

Let's say she ran a 9:18 (a big leap, but it seems plausible).

That probably won't catch the first two, has a decent shot to beat the last two (unless Gear shows something way closer to what she did last year), and might get close to the middle two.

(Is there anybody I'm forgetting?)

I'm pulling hard for her, and she's clearly on a great trajectory right now, but it's a long shot.

She'd have to pop a great performance, and probably hope that 2 or 3 of those gals don't have a very good day.

Fourth to 7th or so is probably a good shot; top three is gonna be tough.

What do you guys think?

You also did not mention Gabby Jennings who has run 9:18 and 9:19 this year. Halladay also just ran 15:02 5K in Portland and will run Steeple at trials. Assuming reasonable weather, it will take sub 9:14 to make the team. Many strong Steeple women even with Emma and Courtney out. This will be the fastest Steeple team in US history. Shoes are helping but depth of US women Steeple talent is better than ever.

sp2 wrote:

UpperState wrote:

I agree! 100%

*high-five*

I looked over WA rankings, to remind myself who the contenders are (it's hard to mentally keep track of them all), and it looks tougher than I had in mind.

For one thing, I totally forgot that Markezich had just run 9:17 at NCAAs. That's rough.

I think Allie's probably better than Howard and Jolly.

But you have to think Constien, and Wayment, and Markezich (with that race last week) are probably well ahead of her.

Probably Mitchell, too.

Gear had that great 15 earlier in the spring, but hasn't looked all that great since then, and hasn't had a very impressive steeple race. Allie's probably got a shot to beat her.

Boreman I think she might get.

So I'm thinking there's two way ahead of her; two more probably substantially ahead;

and maybe two more that are probably in the same ballpark.

Let's say she ran a 9:18 (a big leap, but it seems plausible).

That probably won't catch the first two, has a decent shot to beat the last two (unless Gear shows something way closer to what she did last year), and might get close to the middle two.

(Is there anybody I'm forgetting?)

I'm pulling hard for her, and she's clearly on a great trajectory right now, but it's a long shot.

She'd have to pop a great performance, and probably hope that 2 or 3 of those gals don't have a very good day.

Fourth to 7th or so is probably a good shot; top three is gonna be tough.

What do you guys think?