Teare's chances of making the Olympic team just shot way up
The big question: Should he run the 1500, the 5000, or both?
In the 1500, two spots are nearly locked up. Nuguse and Hocker seem nearly unbeatable. Unfortunately for Teare, there are many good runners competing for the third spot: Hobbs Kessler, Nathan Greene, Joe Waskom, Colin Sahlman. Casey Comber and Eric Holt have shown good form this year. Teare is better than almost all of these guys but he has to be better than ALL of them to nab that third spot.
The 5000 is far more open. Grant Fisher is the favorite, but in a slow race (the Olympic Trials is usually won in 13:30 or so) he could be outkicked. It has happened before. With 3:32.16 speed and decent endurance (as evidenced by his win at the USA Cross Country championships), Teare possibly would have the strongest kick in the field. Nico Young and Woody Kinkaid will also be formidable in a sprint finish. Others with excellent speed include Paul Chelimo and Abdi Nur, but neither has shown great form this year. Many of these runners will be doubling back from the 10000. This will discourage a fast pace and may take a toll on some runners.
In the 1500, Teare obviously would be in the mix for the third spot. The problem is that the 1500 will be crowded. Tactics will be crucial. There will be jostling; so much can go wrong. If Teare gets boxed in or makes his move too early or runs most of the last lap in lane 2 or stumbles with 200 meters to go, it can be the difference between third and,say, eighth.
The 5000, by contrast, is relatively easy to navigate. Teare ran a 13:06 two years ago and is in better shape now. I think at this point he is capable of running sub 13 in perfect conditions. Given that, Teare should be able to tuck in behind the leaders and stay with them. And if the race is very slow (as I suspect), it will come down to the last 200 meters where Teare will be in the mix for the win. I don't think anyone else in the field has run close to a 3:32.1 1500.
Why not run both races? The 1500 precedes the 5000. The 1500 requires three races (a heat, a semi, and a final), and that would take a toll.
The decision seems obvious. Teare should skip the 1500 and put all his eggs in the 5000 meters.