Valby definitely has a chance. The 3rd (and possibly 2nd) slot is wide open with some runners opting for 10k and others injured or with similar PRs. She just ran 14:56? Plenty of time to improve on that, and she closed that race very well. She will either sit on the leader (Monson) or take the lead and push the pace if Monson is in the 10k, for example.
If Valby tries to cover a surge by a 14:19 runner, she will pay a huge price at the end of the race and she’s not going to gap runners with better PRs by pushing the pace. She’s just isn’t ready to make an Olympic team.
I don’t think the goal is to make an Olympic team.
(Or rather, not the primary goal.)
She is 21 years old. The goal is to gain experience from competing at the Trials, racing against elites, learning what it feels like to run a 5000m round before the final.
I think more college athletes should be competing in the Trials just for the experience.
Valby is still a novice. Her recent 14:56 5K is the first time in her limited career that she let somebody else take the lead and set the pace. She ran behind the leader rather than stay in lane 2 off the leader's shoulder. She surged inside the last K and won easily. Valby is fearless as a runner and doesn't get hung up with splits and target times. She just lines up, gives it her best and tries to win. She will only improve as she gains experience.
Valby has a decent shot. There are definitely a lot of people ahead of her on the list for now that should be favored over her, but she has a shot.
Monson is the only true lock in my opinion. Cranny would be if she was still with BTC but I want to see her race now that she's with Boss to see if I actually think she's got a shot. A healthy Schweizer is a near lock as well, but I'm not sure the status of her surgery, etc.
Aside from those three, only one of which is a lock, I don't know that I see a huge gap between the folks ranked ahead of her and Valby.
Here's the list:
1 Alicia MONSON (LOCK) 2 Elise CRANNY (PROBABLY IN, BUT TEAM BOSS NOW) 3 Natosha ROGERS (14:52 PB) 4 Elly HENES (14:47 PB) 5 Whittni MORGAN (15:02 PB) 6 Weini KELATI FREZGHI (14:53 PB) 7 Josette ANDREWS (14:46 PB) 8 Katelyn TUOHY (15:03 PB) 9 Fiona O'KEEFFE (15:01 PB)
So of 12 people ahead of her on the ranking list, there are five that don't have business being ranked ahead of her (Morgan, Tuohy, O'Keefe, Wasserman, Lipari), some women that will likely opt for the 10,000 or already opted for the marathon (O'Keefe, and potentially Kelati, Infeld, others if they are geared more for 10K). Then you have a bunch of people with PRs right around Valby's give or take 5ish seconds. I would favor some of those people over her, but also tend to think she has a higher ceiling given her age than someone like, say, Henes.
Valby has a decent shot. There are definitely a lot of people ahead of her on the list for now that should be favored over her, but she has a shot.
Monson is the only true lock in my opinion. Cranny would be if she was still with BTC but I want to see her race now that she's with Boss to see if I actually think she's got a shot. A healthy Schweizer is a near lock as well, but I'm not sure the status of her surgery, etc.
Aside from those three, only one of which is a lock, I don't know that I see a huge gap between the folks ranked ahead of her and Valby.
Here's the list:
1 Alicia MONSON (LOCK) 2 Elise CRANNY (PROBABLY IN, BUT TEAM BOSS NOW) 3 Natosha ROGERS (14:52 PB) 4 Elly HENES (14:47 PB) 5 Whittni MORGAN (15:02 PB) 6 Weini KELATI FREZGHI (14:53 PB) 7 Josette ANDREWS (14:46 PB) 8 Katelyn TUOHY (15:03 PB) 9 Fiona O'KEEFFE (15:01 PB)
So of 12 people ahead of her on the ranking list, there are five that don't have business being ranked ahead of her (Morgan, Tuohy, O'Keefe, Wasserman, Lipari), some women that will likely opt for the 10,000 or already opted for the marathon (O'Keefe, and potentially Kelati, Infeld, others if they are geared more for 10K). Then you have a bunch of people with PRs right around Valby's give or take 5ish seconds. I would favor some of those people over her, but also tend to think she has a higher ceiling given her age than someone like, say, Henes.
Morgan has raced in a Diamond league 5000m in the last 12 months and has raced well in big pro meets. Never lost to Valby.
Valby has never beaten Tuohy head to head in a 5000m race or on the track at all and Tuohy has a top 7 finish at nationals.
O'Keeffe (not that hard to spell correctly) just made the Olympic Team this week, but has no business competing with an oft injured collegian with limited racing experience?
Wasserman and Lipari have earned their ranking by actually racing. Ranking isn't predictive of future results but shows how athletes recent performances compare and I wouldn't predict them to beat Valby.
3-time defending champ Cranny is as much a lock as anyone. Switching to Team Boss isn't going to cause her to suddenly become not the same runner who has made world finals, won both the 5k and 10k at nationals last year, was the fastest 1500m runner in the country, and ran the second fastest mile by an American ever. Monson is a lock and will be looking for her first national title on the track. Your analysis is garbage.
You just posted the most pathetic take on this stupid thread you started for the purposes of sleighting Valby.
When an athlete decides not to come out in their scheduled race, at a meet they were racing at, in order to not take a loss to their up and coming competitor, then that is still a loss.
Valby has a decent shot. There are definitely a lot of people ahead of her on the list for now that should be favored over her, but she has a shot.
Monson is the only true lock in my opinion. Cranny would be if she was still with BTC but I want to see her race now that she's with Boss to see if I actually think she's got a shot. A healthy Schweizer is a near lock as well, but I'm not sure the status of her surgery, etc.
Aside from those three, only one of which is a lock, I don't know that I see a huge gap between the folks ranked ahead of her and Valby.
Here's the list:
1 Alicia MONSON (LOCK) 2 Elise CRANNY (PROBABLY IN, BUT TEAM BOSS NOW) 3 Natosha ROGERS (14:52 PB) 4 Elly HENES (14:47 PB) 5 Whittni MORGAN (15:02 PB) 6 Weini KELATI FREZGHI (14:53 PB) 7 Josette ANDREWS (14:46 PB) 8 Katelyn TUOHY (15:03 PB) 9 Fiona O'KEEFFE (15:01 PB)
So of 12 people ahead of her on the ranking list, there are five that don't have business being ranked ahead of her (Morgan, Tuohy, O'Keefe, Wasserman, Lipari), some women that will likely opt for the 10,000 or already opted for the marathon (O'Keefe, and potentially Kelati, Infeld, others if they are geared more for 10K). Then you have a bunch of people with PRs right around Valby's give or take 5ish seconds. I would favor some of those people over her, but also tend to think she has a higher ceiling given her age than someone like, say, Henes.
Morgan has raced in a Diamond league 5000m in the last 12 months and has raced well in big pro meets. Never lost to Valby.
Valby has never beaten Tuohy head to head in a 5000m race or on the track at all and Tuohy has a top 7 finish at nationals.
O'Keeffe (not that hard to spell correctly) just made the Olympic Team this week, but has no business competing with an oft injured collegian with limited racing experience?
Wasserman and Lipari have earned their ranking by actually racing. Ranking isn't predictive of future results but shows how athletes recent performances compare and I wouldn't predict them to beat Valby.
3-time defending champ Cranny is as much a lock as anyone. Switching to Team Boss isn't going to cause her to suddenly become not the same runner who has made world finals, won both the 5k and 10k at nationals last year, was the fastest 1500m runner in the country, and ran the second fastest mile by an American ever. Monson is a lock and will be looking for her first national title on the track. Your analysis is garbage.
I think this response is silly. To keep it short:
All of those people I listed have PRs that are 15:00+. O'Keefe is training for halfs and thons now. With respect to Morgan, I think you meant to write "has never raced Valby." Hard to lose to her if you haven't raced her, after all.
Disagree about Cranny. Plenty of people have dropped off after switching groups. I also don't think that highly of Joe Bosshard given his middling results with top talent like Dani Jones.
I know you’re joking when you say UTMB cause that ain’t happening.
The LRC consensus seems to be she will Skip indoors to focus on the trials and then Paris. Valby has skipped 2 indoors seasons already so not unusual she is missing meets this indoor season.
She's qualified for NCAA indoors though, so she might as well show up for the one race. She's 30 seconds ahead of 4th place, so she could run pretty conservative and score points for Florida and get another All-American honor
Valby is on a steep improvement curve. Tuohy is faltering. Tuohy was better her whole life. They were even last spring and Valby isnow far ahead of her. It happens.
You just posted the most pathetic take on this stupid thread you started for the purposes of sleighting Valby.
When an athlete decides not to come out in their scheduled race, at a meet they were racing at, in order to not take a loss to their up and coming competitor, then that is still a loss.
Hahahaha. DNS and loss are completely different things. I'm not slighting (yeah I know how to spell) Valby. She's a great runner, but even with her "steep" improvement curve, she still hasn't shown how she will handle a pro race. I think she needs to get into a race or two that will be a challenge for her.
Last time she raced anyone besides Tuohy who was considered a threat to beat her was at the 3000 in the Valentine meet last winter when she got beat by a bunch of women not mentioned in this thread and then didn't race again until SECs outdoor because she was "injured".
Morgan had surgery last fall. She ran an 8:30 3k last year, but struggled with injury. At full health I think she will be faster than Wayment in the 5k. No telling though if she will be recovered in time for the Olympics.
She's qualified for NCAA indoors though, so she might as well show up for the one race. She's 30 seconds ahead of 4th place, so she could run pretty conservative and score points for Florida and get another All-American honor
Apparently she has to, otherwise it counts as a loss to everyone in the field. 🤔
She's qualified for NCAA indoors though, so she might as well show up for the one race. She's 30 seconds ahead of 4th place, so she could run pretty conservative and score points for Florida and get another All-American honor
Apparently she has to, otherwise it counts as a loss to everyone in the field. 🤔
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Back your ban and still as creepy as ever. No wonder Valby is weirded out by this place.
No, I believe being relentlessly accused of drug use in hundreds if not 1000+ posts and nothing being done about it by the owners is what lead to her hate LetsRun.
She has also learned how to rise above the negatives that come at her from the Internet. “My sophomore year when I started to become a bigger name, it was definitely really hard on me mentally. It was hard not to read it because I had no idea what it was before.
“I’m like, ‘Why are these people talking so bad about me?’ But over time I’ve learned that it’s people behind a computer screen too scared to show who they are. They’re not affecting my life whatsoever. I’ve learned to just ignore it. It’s just online trolls.”
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