The mile conversion has been way too liberal for decades.Plus, Nico is most likely what would be considered acclimated by now. No way he gets 9 on this run. I am sure I will get trashed by fan boys on here, but there is no way, no way he is a faster miler than at least 7-8 guys you can name easily.
Keino was trained and lived at altitude all his life so was completely adjusted, he never ran faster than Mexico City. The conversion used by College is a complete over guesstimate. Kessler ran 3:32.x for 1500M ..Nico;s best was 3:37.x. You want to make Kessler a 3:46 miler? He is surely much faster at the event than Nico and would crush him at any elevation, so would a dozen others.
What mile time do you suppose Keino's 3:34.91 1500 at 7000m altitude would be worth at sea level?
Has to be one of the greatest runs ever.
Surely far superior to the 3:51 Ryun WR at the time.
He never ran a time that was comparable at any other distance, or in the steeple. If he been capable of 3:51, or faster, and with his strength, he would have run sub-13:00. His Mexico 1500m time, is inexplicable.
Again, born, raised and trained at 6,600 feet.
His 3:34 at Mexico City is not inexplicable unless you buy into the notion that that somehow equals 3:25 at sea level!
Regardless of what NCAA conversion tables say, it doesn't work that way! Altitude living guys have a serious advantage when competing at altitude vs sea level guys. The converse is not true. Jim Ryun beat Keino regularly at sea level and Keino never again ran faster than 3:34 even at sea level.
He never ran a time that was comparable at any other distance, or in the steeple. If he been capable of 3:51, or faster, and with his strength, he would have run sub-13:00. His Mexico 1500m time, is inexplicable.
Again, born, raised and trained at 6,600 feet.
His 3:34 at Mexico City is not inexplicable unless you buy into the notion that that somehow equals 3:25 at sea level!
Regardless of what NCAA conversion tables say, it doesn't work that way! Altitude living guys have a serious advantage when competing at altitude vs sea level guys. The converse is not true. Jim Ryun beat Keino regularly at sea level and Keino never again ran faster than 3:34 even at sea level.
Surely that 3:34.91 at altitude was superior to the 3:51 mile WR and 3:33 1500m WR at the time. Significantly better.
Another thing that Kip Keino had in Mexico City, in addition to having hundreds of years of ancestors adapting to the altitude, being born at the same altitude and training there, was unusual at the time, a really fast pacer for much of the race in Ben Jipcho. Ryun crushed Keino on multiple occasions in 1967 at sea level, so it is not that Keino was better than him (when healthy). Ryun had not been allowed to go to altitude for much time in 1968, unlike Keino, and Ryun had had mono and wasn't fully recovered. Ryun also miscalculated by letting Keino get way ahead and then having no drafting ability to get up to him. So, under the circumstances, Ryun might have run his fastest 1500m on that day at sea level (3:33.1 was his world record) with the same effort as his 3:37, and Keino would have smashed Ryun's 1500m record that day at sea level, but probably with something more like 3:30 at best, akin to the best recent Kenyan altitude times and those guys aren't dropping more than a couple of seconds at sea level. I would think that Nico will run 3:50 with competition and 3:51 without much at sea level this winter, plus low 7:30s.
Regarding east african altitude conversions. There is peer reviewed research that ethiopian highlanders can maintain super high hemoglobin saturation even at high altitudes. (This is the finger tests that some of you have probably done for covid) This means that through genetic adaption (living at high elevation for millenia) ethiopians (and probaby kenayans) are not as slowed down by altitude. Even more so that the average european that has lived at altitude there whole life or for years. There are obviously outliers (look at matt carpenter) and maybe young is particularly well adapted also.
obviously they would never have different conversion times for different races (as you would have to scientifically prove that higher hm saturation translates to running performance). But it is very interesting research.
An Ethiopian pattern of human adaptation to high-altitude hypoxia Cynthia M. Beall, Michael J. Decker, Gary M. Brittenham, +2 , and Kingman P. Strohl
We describe, in Ethiopia, a third successful pattern of human adaptation to high-altitude hypoxia that contrasts with both the Andean “classic” (erythrocytosis with arterial hypoxemia) and the more recently identified Tibetan (normal venous hemoglobin concentration with arterial hypoxemia) patterns. A field survey of 236 Ethiopian native residents at 3,530 m (11,650 feet), 14–86 years of age, without evidence of iron deficiency, hemoglobinopathy, or chronic inflammation, found an average hemoglobin concentration of 15.9 and 15.0 g/dl for males and females, respectively, and an average oxygen saturation of hemoglobin of 95.3%. Thus, Ethiopian highlanders maintain venous hemoglobin concentrations and arterial oxygen saturation within the ranges of sea level populations, despite the unavoidable, universal decrease in the ambient oxygen tension at high altitude.c
Another thing that Kip Keino had in Mexico City, in addition to having hundreds of years of ancestors adapting to the altitude, being born at the same altitude and training there, was unusual at the time, a really fast pacer for much of the race in Ben Jipcho. Ryun crushed Keino on multiple occasions in 1967 at sea level, so it is not that Keino was better than him (when healthy). Ryun had not been allowed to go to altitude for much time in 1968, unlike Keino, and Ryun had had mono and wasn't fully recovered. Ryun also miscalculated by letting Keino get way ahead and then having no drafting ability to get up to him. So, under the circumstances, Ryun might have run his fastest 1500m on that day at sea level (3:33.1 was his world record) with the same effort as his 3:37, and Keino would have smashed Ryun's 1500m record that day at sea level, but probably with something more like 3:30 at best, akin to the best recent Kenyan altitude times and those guys aren't dropping more than a couple of seconds at sea level. I would think that Nico will run 3:50 with competition and 3:51 without much at sea level this winter, plus low 7:30s.
Jipcho led for about 700m and it was Norpoth, not Keino, that was running in 2nd.
Young does not have the leg speed to run 3:51. He’s still a 5/1OK guy, and will end up running in the marathon some day.
Awesome result for Nico! Not sure I would give as much weight to the conversion chart though. Similarly to us lessening those conversions to kenyan competitions at altitude, Nico has been at altitude for a few years and most likely is a little more accustomed to it
Every year somebody comes around and says the conversion chart isn’t real and then every year people run the converted times at sea level and everyone is baffled. You clearly don’t understand how altitude works. Your VO2max is literally ~10% lower at 7000 feet than sea level.
We see examples of how messed up the charts are every year in DII.. So many altitude conversions get into NCAA's and every year most of them don't do squat. Given your logic you do realize that the WR was run at elevation right? The previously mentioned Kenyan ran 3:31 @ altitude and that was a superior run to El G. Right.....
All this being said, Nico's run was an awesome step forward for him. It's worth 3:50's low in my estimation. Also, Nico didn't grow up at altitude, which makes it a bit more impressive.
His 3:34 at Mexico City is not inexplicable unless you buy into the notion that that somehow equals 3:25 at sea level!
Regardless of what NCAA conversion tables say, it doesn't work that way! Altitude living guys have a serious advantage when competing at altitude vs sea level guys. The converse is not true. Jim Ryun beat Keino regularly at sea level and Keino never again ran faster than 3:34 even at sea level.
Surely that 3:34.91 at altitude was superior to the 3:51 mile WR and 3:33 1500m WR at the time. Significantly better.
Perhaps, but again, for Keino who was born, raised, lived, and trained at 6600 feet, his very best performance ever, mile or 1500, was at Mexico City.
Based on the BU result a couple months ago and now this, it’s fair to say Nico is due for another big break. The most obvious is a title. I do hope he can manage to snag at least one.
I do think people are right the 3:48 conversion is pretty generous. Something tells me Nico is more like a 3:52 guy. Still, I wonder how competitive he might be at the trials 5000 this summer?
Luis G. has tried to break 4 several times in Flag since turning Pro... The fact that Nico just smashed it, Does bode well for a crazy fast 5k (especially given Nico's wiring). Who's gonna be the first NCAA guy to dip under 13? It's coming quite soon!
Having competed at both altitude and seal-level meets in college, I found the conversion charts to be pretty darn accurate. I once ran a 5k at a little over 3000 feet in 14:57. A week or so later, I ran 14:46 in Eugene. The conversion from the altitude race to sea level? You guessed it—11.xx seconds. Spot on. Anecdotally, I think the conversion charts are much more accurate for people who live at lower elevations and then travel to higher ones to race. Elite runners who live and train at altitude all the time don’t seem to hit the conversion times as frequently at sea level. I do think Nico has a 3:51-52 in him, but 3:48 seems like a stretch. Great result either way!
The mile conversion has been way too liberal for decades.Plus, Nico is most likely what would be considered acclimated by now. No way he gets 9 on this run. I am sure I will get trashed by fan boys on here, but there is no way, no way he is a faster miler than at least 7-8 guys you can name easily.
I don't think "acclimated" means that your altitude times and sea-level times are the same. Not saying he's in 3:48 shape, but 3:51-53 at sea-level seems reasonable based off this run.
Keino was trained and lived at altitude all his life so was completely adjusted, he never ran faster than Mexico City. The conversion used by College is a complete over guesstimate. Kessler ran 3:32.x for 1500M ..Nico;s best was 3:37.x. You want to make Kessler a 3:46 miler? He is surely much faster at the event than Nico and would crush him at any elevation, so would a dozen others.
I’d like to see Nico and Kessler do battle in a 3,000m race. I think Nico would win.
Surely that 3:34.91 at altitude was superior to the 3:51 mile WR and 3:33 1500m WR at the time. Significantly better.
Perhaps, but again, for Keino who was born, raised, lived, and trained at 6600 feet, his very best performance ever, mile or 1500, was at Mexico City.
I think it’s important to properly contextualize Keino’s results. It was a different era and he wasn’t running regular time trial type races. He routinely ran 3:36.xx or 3:53.xx, and he was winning a lot of those races, which doesn’t mean that was the fastest he was possibly capable of.
Take a look at the 1972 Olympic final for example. It’s a race that’s often overlooked, not remembered as well as the 1972 800 or 5k, or the 1968 and 1976 Olympic 1500s—probably in part because Pekka Vasala did nothing of note outside 1972. After a slow start, Keino ran his last 800 in ~1:49.8 with the last 700 at ~3:24.5 1500 pace, he just lost to a guy who was likely blood doping and who bookended the Games with 1:44-mid 800m wins.
On that day in ‘72 Keino was absolutely capable of faster than 3:34.9, probably more like 3:32.xx. I would contend he was also likely in 3:32.xx shape at sea level in October 1968. So nowhere near the NCAA altitude conversion, but faster than his lifetime best for sure. His combination of 1:46.4/800 and 7:39.6/3k PBs also suggests a faster 1500 than 3:34.9, I think.
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