It is only January, but Rubio saying that Kiptum only has 27-flat 10k ability may prove to be the dumbest post of the year.
It is NOT even close to the “dumbest post” this week. I do believe Kiptum can run about 26:40 or slightly faster BUT I don’t think Kipchoge can run under 27 now. IF someone said Kiptum could run 26:10 currently that would be a more idiotic assertion than saying he can only run 27:00.
You say it's not the dumbest post of the week, yet the comparisons you make are to made-up posts that don't exist.
Please, show me something dumber than saying a marathon can run 42.2 km at only 9 seconds slower per km than his 10k pace.
There are a LOT of people who WISH that a 29:00 10k (2:54/k pace) projected to a 2:08 marathon (3:03/k pace). LOL!
It is NOT even close to the “dumbest post” this week. I do believe Kiptum can run about 26:40 or slightly faster BUT I don’t think Kipchoge can run under 27 now. IF someone said Kiptum could run 26:10 currently that would be a more idiotic assertion than saying he can only run 27:00.
You say it's not the dumbest post of the week, yet the comparisons you make are to made-up posts that don't exist.
Please, show me something dumber than saying a marathon can run 42.2 km at only 9 seconds slower per km than his 10k pace.
There are a LOT of people who WISH that a 29:00 10k (2:54/k pace) projected to a 2:08 marathon (3:03/k pace). LOL!
I know much more about this than you do. Eliud wasn’t able to break 27 minutes 12 years ago, maybe before you were born…
27:00 is 4:22 mile pace and Kiptum’s marathon WR pace is 4:36. No human, including Kiptum, can run a marathon at a pace only 14 seconds slower than 10000m pace. A typical spread for elite runners is at least 20 seconds.
Correct.
It is only January, but Rubio saying that Kiptum only has 27-flat 10k ability may prove to be the dumbest post of the year.
Eeeasy.
I said, and I maintain, that Kiptum can't go much lower than 27. 26:45? Maybe 26:40? I doubt it, in fact. No way he can approach 26:30
Following your "logic", Ineos' Kipchoge could have run... what? 26:10?
You are my favorite poster on this site, but that's not what I'm doing. I'm using the ratio of world records to surmise how a particular difference between marathon times translates to a difference in 10k times. Said simply: it takes around 4.5 times as long to run a marathon as a 10k, so (1 second faster per 10k) <-> (4.5 seconds faster per marathon). It allows me to compare Kiptum to slower marathon specialists, not (directly) to 10k specialists.
[That said, there are many possible criticisms of my method, some of which I laid out. At the core, it is very hard to predict what someone can run at an off-distance without seeing them do it!]
Fair enough, and to your credit you’re looking for a methodology instead of plucking times out of thin air. I understand there must be an ‘x’ prerequisite 10k ability to run ‘x’ for the marathon for 99% of people. I do think Kiptum is going to be unusually adept at running nearer to his 10k pace for the marathon than most distance runners, for what seem like common sense reasons; he’s a freak marathoner.
I know it doesn’t mean much, but Kiptum did run a 28:17 road 10k in 2019, a week after running a 59:53 half. He ran a 28:27 8th place on the track in Stockholm in May 2021 when his half PR was already 58:42; those are his only two listed results under the half marathon distance. He’s obviously reached another level since then, but still, I don’t see him stepping onto the track and mixing it up with the best 5k/10k guys like it’s nothing.
We actually have been seeing a lot of men and women run marathons that would historically have seemed beyond their capabilities based on performances at shorter distances: whether that’s down to shoe tech, training, fueling, PEDs, or in some cases a combination, I’m not sure, but it’s a real phenomenon.
Huh? There is no reason to think that Kipchoge ever had faster marathon ability than Kiptum.
Anyway, following "my logic" and that of the other posters who know the event, the exact same conclusion would apply:
It is ridiculous to state that a 2:00 marathoner can't "go much lower than 27 flat."
(Recall your actual absurd statement: "I highly doubt he could go much lower than 27 flat." 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣)
Good grief.
Dathan Ritzenhein ran 27:22, and could only manage 2:07:42 in the marathon, with many attempts on fast courses.
Kiptum is fully SEVEN MINUTES FASTER THAN RITZ IN THE MARATHON, and you don't think he can "go much lower than 27 flat"?? 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
You really are an idiot. I can guarantee you that when Kenenisa ran 2:01 at age 37 he wasn’t able to run faster than 27 minutes. Kenenisa hasn’t broken 27 since 2011, as he tried and failed in 2012 and 2013. The marathon is not the same as the 10000m. Odd that you cannot grasp this.
Dathan Ritzenhein ran 27:22, and could only manage 2:07:42 in the marathon, with many attempts on fast courses.
Kiptum is fully SEVEN MINUTES FASTER THAN RITZ IN THE MARATHON, and you don't think he can "go much lower than 27 flat"?? 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
You really are an idiot. I can guarantee you that when Kenenisa ran 2:01 at age 37 he wasn’t able to run faster than 27 minutes. Kenenisa hasn’t broken 27 since 2011, as he tried and failed in 2012 and 2013. The marathon is not the same as the 10000m. Odd that you cannot grasp this.
You are talking about what KB did at 37.
Kiptum was 23 at the time of his 2:00:35 in October. 14 years younger.
Here is what have wrote the French medias in a recent article. And they are reputed with a Cartesien mind.
Target 3'27" for the end of the season?
Today, Ingebrigtsen 's main rival is El Guerrouj and no one, since the Moroccan in 2002, has set three times under 3'29" in the same season. For the moment, he has held the indoor world record since 2022, 3'30"60 at the Liévin meeting . Its range is very wide and this ability to combine resistance and speed is admirable. Holder of the European record for the 3,000 m in 7'23"80 since the last meeting in Paris and the 5,000 m in 12'48"45 since 2021, a distance for which he is the reigning world champion, he could appropriate that of the mile which has held since July 27, 1985 with Cram 's 3'46"32 , an established performance... at the Bislett in Oslo . His personal best is 3'46"46, a breath.
Don't have the privilege to have known world class runners myself, but I do know a woman who can run sub-3 without breaking 40 mins in 10k ever. Granted, shes a hobby jogger by this board's standard. Still I believe there are some people who are just much better at the marathon. On the flip side, they just suck at anything below 30k.
You are my favorite poster on this site, but that's not what I'm doing. I'm using the ratio of world records to surmise how a particular difference between marathon times translates to a difference in 10k times. Said simply: it takes around 4.5 times as long to run a marathon as a 10k, so (1 second faster per 10k) <-> (4.5 seconds faster per marathon). It allows me to compare Kiptum to slower marathon specialists, not (directly) to 10k specialists.
[That said, there are many possible criticisms of my method, some of which I laid out. At the core, it is very hard to predict what someone can run at an off-distance without seeing them do it!]
Fair enough, and to your credit you’re looking for a methodology instead of plucking times out of thin air. I understand there must be an ‘x’ prerequisite 10k ability to run ‘x’ for the marathon for 99% of people. I do think Kiptum is going to be unusually adept at running nearer to his 10k pace for the marathon than most distance runners, for what seem like common sense reasons; he’s a freak marathoner.
I know it doesn’t mean much, but Kiptum did run a 28:17 road 10k in 2019, a week after running a 59:53 half. He ran a 28:27 8th place on the track in Stockholm in May 2021 when his half PR was already 58:42; those are his only two listed results under the half marathon distance. He’s obviously reached another level since then, but still, I don’t see him stepping onto the track and mixing it up with the best 5k/10k guys like it’s nothing.
We actually have been seeing a lot of men and women run marathons that would historically have seemed beyond their capabilities based on performances at shorter distances: whether that’s down to shoe tech, training, fueling, PEDs, or in some cases a combination, I’m not sure, but it’s a real phenomenon.
Your reference to Kiptum running a 10K in 28:27 is not compelling. As everyone knows, during his WR, he ran 27:52 from 30 to 40K, and that was after a warmup of about 61 HM pace for 30K, yet some posters don’t believe he could break 27:00?
Fair enough, so I'm "the dumbest" for saying that Kiptum can't go much lower than 27. Let's narrow it down a bit more: he's not touching 26:45
And you said he can obviously run sub 26:20
I'm pretty confident your estimate is way, way, way off.
I could be wrong by 5-10 seconds, give or take.
Why do you think a guy who can run 4:36/mile for a marathon by himself can't touch 26:45 in a 10,000? 26:45 is not that "fast" compared to the WR of 26:11. I'd be shocked if he couldn't break 26:40.
Rewatch 2004 I guess. Seemed pretty easy to me — not in much doubt, and he celebrated the last 10-15 meters. That was Bekele at his absolute peak, as well. Jakob chose not to race 2021 Tokyo when Chep was at his peak. Likely would have been a similar race.
in 2003 they both lost to Kipchoge but El G had put Bekele out of race already.
El G finished .29 secs ahead of Bekele in the 2003 WC 5k.
IN 2004 OG the difference was .20 secs for El G.
Easy?
Yes. Easy. He was in control over Bekele both times -- it is probably smart of him to wait until the final straight to go for it. That leads to deceptively "close" results. Watch the races. Did it seem tough for him? Did you doubt the result?
Don't have the privilege to have known world class runners myself, but I do know a woman who can run sub-3 without breaking 40 mins in 10k ever. Granted, shes a hobby jogger by this board's standard. Still I believe there are some people who are just much better at the marathon. On the flip side, they just suck at anything below 30k.
I mean even in your example, though, her pace for 3:00 is 6:53ish and per pace for a 40 min 10K would be 6:27ish. 26/mile difference or 106.7% of pace.
Adjust his 4:36 pace similarly and he's at 4:17 pace / 26:35. So i like saying "well he ran 2:00:35 but could never break 26:30."
Fair enough, so I'm "the dumbest" for saying that Kiptum can't go much lower than 27. Let's narrow it down a bit more: he's not touching 26:45
And you said he can obviously run sub 26:20
I'm pretty confident your estimate is way, way, way off.
I could be wrong by 5-10 seconds, give or take.
1. I did not say "he can obviously run 26:20." I made no projections at all, except to utterly ridicule your suggestion he couldn't break 27:00 by much.
2. Chris Solinksy ran 26:59. In 2010. In his debut at the distance. He called it a "glorified tempo run."
You don't think that 2024 Kelvin Kiptum, the fasterst marathon performer ever to live with a 2:00:35, could get 15 seconds away from 2010 Chris Solinsky debuting over 10k. 😂😂😂
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