You'll notice that most of these teams are from the south, where the courses are going to be faster naturally. In reality, there probably won't be any teams from the south or southeast region on the podium at NXN... But I could be wrong.
I think Southlake Carroll can podium at NXN again (unless Austin Vandegrift somehow becomes better than them to beat them at the state meet).
SLC made the podium this year and returns 4 of their varsity guys, all of which have run a 5k under 15:39 and scored for the team at some point. They just need a 5th runner but I’m sure they will find someone that steps up.
Herriman and Niwot are locks for the top 2 right now.
So Herriman returns 15:21, 15:22, 15:23, 15:31, 15:42. That 15:42 was from the Utah JV state meet. Would have been nice to know what the speed ratings for the JV state meet were
Jesuit LA should be better next year than they were this year and will have much more experience.
Jesuit is looking to have a very strong top 3 - Mullen, Crawford, and Monahan. That was also their top 3 at Niketown. They just need a #4&5 to step up.
After the top 3, there is a big group of freshmen and sophomores that have room for improvement next year.
Marvin Ridge from NC will be very competitive for a SE spot next year. They were 7th in SE this year with their #2 having a horrible race. He had run 15:40 on the same course twice already this year (Adidas and Great American) and ran a 16:58 at NXR to finish outside top 5. They still only finished 36 points out of 3rd, and easily finish 3rd if he has a normal race. They only lose one of their top 7 (return 1,3,4,5,6,7 from NXR). Only issue with the team is no real lowstick so they really need all 5 doing well as evidenced this year.
There is also a whole winter, spring, and summer for them to develop a low stick
1. Herriman UT. Defending national champions. Returning 3 scorers from NXN + Manwaring who ran a 15:30 in the RunningLane gold race, and also a sophomore who ran a 16:19 at NXR.
2. Niwot CO. Returns everyone and took 5th at NXN. Will definitely be challenging for the NXN title.
3. Southlake Carroll TX. Made the podium last year and returned 4 of their top 7. All 4 returners have run under 15:40. They need a 5th runner but they always seem to find someone
4. Jesuit OR. Returns their #2-6. 6 guys under 15:45 will be back. NXN takes place at their state. They almost beat CDA at Hole In The Wall, but did not perform their best at NXR. Their returning squad appears deeper than CDA.
5. CDA ID. Took 11th at NXN in their first outing. Only losing 2 seniors
Predictions for individuals at NXN: 1. Manny Putz - did not run track last spring. Fell down at the start of the NXN race, but still managed to finish as a top nonsenior.
2. Evan Noonan - almost beat the eventual NXN champ Jojo Jourdon at Bob Firman, and won the CA state meet and Woodbridge. Off race at NXN though.
3. Kyle Steadman - looking to be the top Southwest guy. At NXR he was less than 2 seconds behind Westfall and Middaugh (both guys finished in the top 6 at NXN)
4. TJ Hansen - took the 10th spot at NXN. Second returner
5. Josiah Tostenson - was near the top of his class his freshman year. He had a rough start at the beginning of this season, but he made his way to become an All-American.
Southeast: Belen Jesuit Prep FL / Trinity (Louisville) KY South: Southlake Carroll TX / Austin Vandegrift TX Heartland: Stevens Point WI / Minnetonka MN New York: Monroe Woodbury NY / Ithaca NY Northeast: CBA NJ / Ridgefield CT Northwest: Jesuit OR / CDA ID Southwest: Herriman UT / Niwot CO Midwest: Plainfield North IL / Downers Grove North IL California (merge): Great Oak CA / Buchanan CA
#8 Woodbridge Aidan Antonio (9) - 177 Aiden Zavala (10) - 176 Inban Kathiravan (10) - 172 Iniyan Kathiravan (10) - 158 Thomas Yohn (9) - 156 - Woodbridge has never been good until recently. Hopefully this fine group of young freshman and sophomores can put together something special. They already have 3 runners above 170s+. This team doesn’t have much depth past their 5th.
About time, a school that hosts a big invitational is getting into the leaderboard!
South 1- Southlake Carroll TX 2- Austin Vandegrift TX 3- Lucas Lovejoy TX 4- Jesuit LA 5- Bentonville AR
Midwest 1- Plainfield North IL 2- Downers Grove North IL 3- Plainfield South IL 4- Rockhurst MO 5- Rock Bridge MO
Southwest 1- Herriman UT 2- Niwot CO 3- Mountain View UT 4- Coronado CO 5- Valor Christian CO
Heartland 1- Stevens Point WI 2- Minnetonka MN 3- Dowling Catholic IA 4- Edina MN 5- Cedar Falls IA
New York 1- Monroe Woodbury NY 2- Ithaca NY 3- Saratoga Springs NY 4- North Rockland NY 5- Xavier NY
Northwest 1- Jesuit OR 2- CDA ID 3- Crater OR 4- Helena MT 5- Rocky Mountain ID
California 1- Great Oak CA 2- Jesuit CA 3- Buchanan CA 4- ML King CA 5- Arnold O. Beckman CA
Northeast 1- CBA NJ 2- Ridgefield CT 3- State College PA 4- Haddonfield Memorial NJ 5- Bishop Hendricken RI
Southeast 1- Belen Jesuit Prep FL 2- Trinity (Louisville) KY 3- Vestavia Hills AL 4- Huntsville AL 5- Marvin Ridge NC
I changed my pick for the #2 spot for California - I think it will be Jesuit CA. Even though they are in D2, they can win the state meet and place top 2 in the merge at CIF, just like San Clemente and Dana Hills did. It also appears that D2 will have another really good team - Glendora, who will likely push Jesuit to do their best. Weather differences could be a factor on how the merge plays out too.
Northwest 1- Jesuit OR 2- CDA ID 3- Crater OR 4- Helena MT 5- Rocky Mountain ID
I'll only speak as to the NW predictions, as that's my specialty. Jesuit and CDA are right where they should be, although it should be noted that it's likely going to be a tossup based off of who has a better track season.
Crater could be third, but I'd more likely take Rocky Mountain or Helena over them, as Crater looks pretty good on paper, but I will note that only one or two of their guys improved off of 2022 to 2023, and that they all have really fast PR's that were run on a track which artificially inflate how good they seem.
I think Rocky is better than Helena. Helena returns 6 of 7, but it's from 11th place at NXR, where none of them placed in the top 78.
Helena returns these top 7 places from NXR: 79, 86, 95, 110, 157, (182), 185. (Parenthesis means open race time plugged in to championship)
Rocky returns these top 7 places from NXR: 13, 71, (112), 154, (169), 177, (188)
Looking at returning places, these teams both look really even, but I would give the edge to Rocky given their much heavier depth.
5A state schools by 3200 depth at various levels: (Should be noted that CDA, Boise, and Rocky, have all had some pretty high level freshman that could mix this up)
NE/NY girls - 5-6-9-11 in NXN. That's been left out of all this discussion.
How about basing the number of autoqualifiers off of NXN performances from the previous years?
For example, On the boys side: 3 autoqualifying teams from the Southwest, 1 autoqualifying team from New York On the girls side: 3 autoqualifying teams from the Southwest, 1 autoqualifying team from Heartland.
And still 2 at-large teams are allowed in all regions, even if that means it can send 5 boys teams from the Southwest.
But have at least 1 autoqualifier on both sides in every region so each region is represented and because you never know what the future of the region will look like. Example: maybe a region is sending 1 autoqualifier and this region has improved based on NXN performances, so start sending 2 autoqualifiers from that region again
5A state schools by 3200 depth at various levels: (Should be noted that CDA, Boise, and Rocky, have all had some pretty high level freshman that could mix this up)
Sub 9:45:
CDA 3
Rocky 3
Boise 2
Eagle 1
Timberline 1
Thunder Ridge 1
Sub 10:
Rocky 5
CDA 3 (or 4 with Carr)
Boise 4
Eagle 3
Cen10 3
Mountain View 1
Highland 1
Timberline 1
Thunder Ridge 1
Capital 1
Sub 10:30:
Rocky 15
Eagle 6
CDA 5
Boise 5
Cen10 5
Mountain View 4
Timberline 2
Capital 2
Highland 1
Thunder Ridge 1
Lake City 1
Sub 11:
Rocky 21
Eagle 7
CDA 6
Mountain View 6
Boise 5
Cen10 5
Highland 4
Timberline 4
Thunder Ridge 3
Capital 2
Lake City 1
Some "pretty high level freshmen" is stretching it for Rocky. They had boys run the following on the Firman course:
17:32, 17:44, 18:36, 18:52.
Boise had:
16:54, 17:16, 17:27, 18:07, 18:13
Considering that Rocky trains on this course on a weekly basis, one would expect that Rocky guys would perform better than other teams on this course, especially against other freshmen that haven't seen the course as much.
Northwest 1- Jesuit OR 2- CDA ID 3- Crater OR 4- Helena MT 5- Rocky Mountain ID
I'll only speak as to the NW predictions, as that's my specialty. Jesuit and CDA are right where they should be, although it should be noted that it's likely going to be a tossup based off of who has a better track season.
Crater could be third, but I'd more likely take Rocky Mountain or Helena over them, as Crater looks pretty good on paper, but I will note that only one or two of their guys improved off of 2022 to 2023, and that they all have really fast PR's that were run on a track which artificially inflate how good they seem.
I think Rocky is better than Helena. Helena returns 6 of 7, but it's from 11th place at NXR, where none of them placed in the top 78.
Helena returns these top 7 places from NXR: 79, 86, 95, 110, 157, (182), 185. (Parenthesis means open race time plugged in to championship)
Rocky returns these top 7 places from NXR: 13, 71, (112), 154, (169), 177, (188)
Looking at returning places, these teams both look really even, but I would give the edge to Rocky given their much heavier depth.
Rocky Mountain missed NXN by 1 spot two years in a row. If Rocky Mountain does somehow get third at NXR NW, they will have a better shot at an at-large berth than they did for the last 2 years.
This is because the NW region is getting stronger and the CA region is getting weaker since all top teams in CA are senior-heavy. Third CA team took 17th at NXN. This isn’t looking good for California’s chances of sending an at-large boys team next year