If that's all you're trying to say -- essentially just that there's some overlap between training for different distance -- the thread is poorly titled and most of the posts are unrelated to what you just wrote.
No that is NOT all I am saying. I am saying much more than that. Can you not read?
A small handful of the top XC runners could do it on a fast course like Berlin or London...MAYBE Chicago. A few more could pull it off in PERFECT conditions in a simulated time trial like they had in Phoenix during COVID. Maybe 5 or 6 on a good year.
The number that could pull it off at NYC or Boston? Probably zero.
A small handful of the top XC runners could do it on a fast course like Berlin or London...MAYBE Chicago. A few more could pull it off in PERFECT conditions in a simulated time trial like they had in Phoenix during COVID. Maybe 5 or 6 on a good year.
The number that could pull it off at NYC or Boston? Probably zero.
Yes this is a very reasonable assessment. Of course it might vary some from year to year. But many of the clowns posting here aren’t factoring in the shoes, in addition to their general ignorance. So years ago you probably had a handful who could break 2:14 but the new shoes appear to lower that mark by a couple minutes or so.
Also note that besides being one of the fastest marathons of all time, a 41 year old Tadesse Abraham ran 2:05 low, breaking Bekele’s 40+ age WR. Closet all time US runner was Rupp’s 2:06 and change at Prague.
Okay, fine. A few could do it, but none of them will do it.
The number of posts written and time wasted on this site speculating about hypothetical runs and speculative times is mind boggling. Don't talk about times, run them.
Remember the Jared Ward NCAA eligibility fiasco in 2013? He ran the Chicago Marathon that fall instead of cross country.
It was the pre-super shoe era, but on a day when Dennis Kimetto ran 2:03:45(still the course record) and Emmanul Mutai ran 2:03:52, Ward only managed 2:16:17. He had placed 14th at XC nationals the prior year. He likely would have been far better than 14th that fall.
He ultimately was granted a last-minute exemption because of the terrible press the NCAA received. He got 36th at XC nationals, although it was nowhere near reflective of his ability as he had just run a Chicago 5 weeks prior.
Not a single one. Not a single one. Talent isnt enough for the marathon, in order to run that fast you need really specific training. There are real tangible physiological adaptations that need to happen in training in order to succeed in the marathon. These guys arent training the right systems, they areent hitting those hard long runs.
Now if you gave them 6 months and a solid training plan, I would bet that most all american XC athletes would run sub 2:12. Heck, i wouldnt be surprised if most top 100 type guys could run that fast on a fast course in fast shoes.
I think both of these points are wrong.
Someone else commented that they thought Nico Young could run 2:12 when healthy and fit, I think that’s right. Nico did 10 miles @ 4:50 pace at 7000 ft. last year. He runs 20 miles every week and about 90-100 mpw regularly.
Drop him in Berlin in perfect conditions like this weekend, 2:12 is plausible. Taking the hypothetical seriously, if you lined up the entire NCAA field, I think 2-4 might hit 2:12:xx in perfect conditions. The median finish time would be over 2:20, though. And probably half the field would DNF.
And the idea that the idea that the entire field would run 2:12 with a single, solid training block is also nonsense. If that were true, you’d have 200 Americans running 2:12 every year. Obviously, that is not reality.
At the Top Schools like Oregon, Colorado etc. Probably OVER 50% But the problem is they would run with the Men and Fall apart and they Might run slower Than Tigist Assefa (That is what you are really asking right?) Like Hared Ward Barely beat Assefa last night, by outsprinting her but he likely ran with the 2:05 runners and fell apart, If he had just said My goal is to just run with the lead Women it would have been very easy for him and he would never feel like he is falling off the Pace., If lets ay The University Of Oregon said for Todays Workout we will run the Berlin Marathon, But run with the Lead Women and NO FASTER Probably all in the top 7 could do it. But the Mindset is Run and if you see a Women with you, you are not running hard enough so they might be in 2:07-2:09 Shape, but they try to run 2:04-2:05 pace and they fall apart and run around 2:20
Not worder the best I know my Writing sucks, but runners know what I mean,
No Tigist Assefa, Gudaf Tsegay, Sifan Hassan, Faith Kipyegon as good as they are could NOT make Top 7 on The Men's Cross Country team at Stanford, Oregon, Colorado or any of the XC Powers
While there are a lot of time speculation posts/threads on here, I find these much more enjoyable than the large number of political threads on a site where we're supposed to talk about running...
LOL, reread your post spanky. NONE of them could break it in the next week or two or even 3-5, not happening. I broke 2:15, twice, at age 25 and 26...I was NOT in College and I trained for both of those marathons...ever heard of long runs?
As for those bringing up Alberto, he didn't run cross country at Oregon in 1980, he trained for and won the NYC Marathon that Fall.
LOL, reread your post spanky. NONE of them could break it in the next week or two or even 3-5, not happening. I broke 2:15, twice, at age 25 and 26...I was NOT in College and I trained for both of those marathons...ever heard of long runs?
As for those bringing up Alberto, he didn't run cross country at Oregon in 1980, he trained for and won the NYC Marathon that Fall.
Just because you weren’t particularly talented doesn’t mean some others are not. Surely you are bright enough to grasp this?
I don't know how many of the college guys could run a decent 'thon right now.
What's pretty damn clear is that *none* of our freaking 'elites' can.
ONE guy breaks 2:12 --*with* freaking super-shoes, on a conducive day, at the fastest race in the world??
Are you kidding me???
I mean, alright, Mantz could've done better, and *maybe* Rupp could --though it seems like he's probably finally past it now, but who else is there that gives any reason for any optimism at all right now?
If this had been the Trials yesterday, and all our best had been running, how many would've broken 2:10? How many 2:08?
We had guys running sub-2:10 almost fifty freaking years ago, for God's sake.
With fifty years of evolution (in which the rest of the world's gotten 4, 5, 6, 7 minutes faster), and shoes that literal take two minutes off, our guys are worse now than they were then.
My heart goes out to Shorter, and Rodgers, and yes even Alberto, who must just wanna puke their guts out when they look at this scene, in which the *best* American at the fastest race in the world *barely* breaks 2:12 --and *barely* beats the best chick.
I feel like we should just take the US men's marathon scene out behind the barn at this point, and put it out of its misery. (Okay, give Mantz a pass, but that's about it.)
It is utterly *amazing* how freaking bad we are.
It's not the 1970s anymore. In America you can't buy a house on two years of McDonald's income or a new car on 4 months of it. People can't go to the damn doctor if they get an injury. People need to make money, they don't have the time to fk around running for no reason unlike our European brethren.
LOL, reread your post spanky. NONE of them could break it in the next week or two or even 3-5, not happening. I broke 2:15, twice, at age 25 and 26...I was NOT in College and I trained for both of those marathons...ever heard of long runs?
As for those bringing up Alberto, he didn't run cross country at Oregon in 1980, he trained for and won the NYC Marathon that Fall.
Just because you weren’t particularly talented doesn’t mean some others are not. Surely you are bright enough to grasp this?
Awe, poor baby old man with no talent lost his 5th place trophy in the 5k fun run down the stretch to a 60 year old. Try not to cry too much as you mile pr is surely slower than I've run in a marathon. Just cuddle up with your boyfriend and he can console you sweetie.
One way to think of it is this. Conner Mantz is a 2:08:16 guy. 2:12:00 s 8.5 seonds a mile slower than that.
So to be able to run under 2:12 you need to be within 8.5 seconds a mile of Mantz.
So how many guys are within 8.5 seconds a mile of Mantz at the NCAA level (53 seconds)?
At NCAAs in 2021, it was 29 at NCAA xc.
Now of those 29, many of them are going to too young and many of them are going to be much more 3k/5k or 5k/10k than 10k/marathon like Mantz.
Rojo’s reply and heuristic ignore the part of the hypothetical that makes the OP interesting. Mantz ran 2:08 when he was a pro and when he was training for the marathon. The question asks who could run a 2:12 on NCAA XC training. And since only 25 Americans have broken 2:13 in the last 3 years when they were fully focused on the marathon, it’s safe to assume that very few could pull off the feat without specific training.
I would only a few could because they would need to pace themselves intelligently and not go out too fast. They also need to have enough training mileage and long runs in training. When I was in college I remember teammates who tried to run a marathon. They had great speed at shorter distances but they always slowed way down at the end of the marathon or dropped out. They started out too fast and didn't have the training mileage to sustain it for 26 miles.
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