Annnnnd Jakob just pulled out of Euros. He’s just not a xc runner.
Looks like he’s prioritizing his 2024 season and recovering from any lingering ailments. So are a handful of elite runners. He shows up at every other race, but second he announces he is not running one, we get the “nOt A cRoSs CoUnTrY rUnNeR” chatter.
Annnnnd Jakob just pulled out of Euros. He’s just not a xc runner.
Looks like he’s prioritizing his 2024 season and recovering from any lingering ailments. So are a handful of elite runners. He shows up at every other race, but second he announces he is not running one, we get the “nOt A cRoSs CoUnTrY rUnNeR” chatter.
Well that and his 2019 performance at world junior xc.
EDIT: I know the BroJos brought up Hassan and perhaps she is going to be the real deal in the marathon, but I'd be pretty surprised if it's not more like she's very good at it (and can win as others falter), as opposed to us seeing her run 2:13 anytime soon.
I take the L on that one ha. Hassan is just that good and two days after I mentioned 2:13, Assefa smashed the World Record, so we all had to reassess times in the event.
That being said, on the thread topic, I don't think we were ever going to see him at World XC this. Let's hope that this injury doesn't keep him out of World Indoors, though. I wouldn't say Jakob is 'just not a XC runner.' We don't know that, but we do know he hasn't prioritized it as a senior athlete outside of Europeans.
This post was edited 17 seconds after it was posted.
I don't think that Jakob would win, though he'd have a chance. Remember Denmark where he could only manage 10th or 12th in the junior world xc race and he was already a 3:31 guy at that time? He is a lot stronger aerobically and the hills at world xc aren't usually as steep as there. But you can't measure gaps at world's and euro's to guess because Jakob was not being pushed at Euro xc. Even on the same course, OK State, Kipngetich at Regionals was about a minute behind Nico's performance at nationals last year, but very close to him at nationals in Virginia. The reason is that Kipngetich wasn't being pushed by anyone but himself at regionals. At nationals he was all out.
I don't think that Jakob would win, though he'd have a chance. Remember Denmark where he could only manage 10th or 12th in the junior world xc race and he was already a 3:31 guy at that time? He is a lot stronger aerobically and the hills at world xc aren't usually as steep as there. But you can't measure gaps at world's and euro's to guess because Jakob was not being pushed at Euro xc. Even on the same course, OK State, Kipngetich at Regionals was about a minute behind Nico's performance at nationals last year, but very close to him at nationals in Virginia. The reason is that Kipngetich wasn't being pushed by anyone but himself at regionals. At nationals he was all out.
To some degree I agree and suspect Jakob wasn’t close to all out. However unless he was jogging we are talking a huge difference in the level. That’s why I think he could be there with the Kenyan pack (30 seconds greater separation) but expecting him to be there with the top 3 I can’t really say for sure.
I don't think that Jakob would win, though he'd have a chance. Remember Denmark where he could only manage 10th or 12th in the junior world xc race and he was already a 3:31 guy at that time? He is a lot stronger aerobically and the hills at world xc aren't usually as steep as there. But you can't measure gaps at world's and euro's to guess because Jakob was not being pushed at Euro xc. Even on the same course, OK State, Kipngetich at Regionals was about a minute behind Nico's performance at nationals last year, but very close to him at nationals in Virginia. The reason is that Kipngetich wasn't being pushed by anyone but himself at regionals. At nationals he was all out.
To some degree I agree and suspect Jakob wasn’t close to all out. However unless he was jogging we are talking a huge difference in the level. That’s why I think he could be there with the Kenyan pack (30 seconds greater separation) but expecting him to be there with the top 3 I can’t really say for sure.
Jakob withdraw the European XC Champs due to injury. Info came in today. What kind of or how severe injury not told.
I think I remember a large majority of people being appalled at the fact someone said he’d win worlds last season in the 5k. Like I don’t understand where people get these facts from, how is there a ZERO percent chance he’s winning world cross.
I don't think that Jakob would win, though he'd have a chance. Remember Denmark where he could only manage 10th or 12th in the junior world xc race and he was already a 3:31 guy at that time? He is a lot stronger aerobically and the hills at world xc aren't usually as steep as there. But you can't measure gaps at world's and euro's to guess because Jakob was not being pushed at Euro xc. Even on the same course, OK State, Kipngetich at Regionals was about a minute behind Nico's performance at nationals last year, but very close to him at nationals in Virginia. The reason is that Kipngetich wasn't being pushed by anyone but himself at regionals. At nationals he was all out.
Good post. So what is the best conclusion here? -Maybe that we will never know before Jakob actually races WC xc…
My best guesses: Jakob will find the opportunity to participate in these champs once or twice, and he will get the win. But he clearly needs some luck: 1. A long career without too many injuries or sickness. 2. A race track at the right point in time that is fairly similar to the one in Kampala (The worlds xc where Cheptegei collapsed).
Uncertainties: 1. Jakob has to be as good as he himself thinks he is in the 10000m and maybe even the half marathon. In theory he might be that good (Kejelcha, Hassan and Assefa have all shown the possibility of speed combined with long endurance), but we simply don’t know before a serious try.
2. I suspect current Jakob can beat all of the 11 that placed in front of him in Århus in a similar xc course, even Oscar Chelimo and the winner Mengesha. But I don’t think he stands a chance against Kiplimo, Cheptegei or Aregawi in (such) a hilly track. According to himself he suffers in courses without stretches for relaxation… And of course body weight factors in. And maybe also the degree of mud -who knows. Saying all this we don’t know if Jakob had a particular bad day in Århus, and could have been top 3 without…
Possibly Jakob participation in 10000m, half marathon and xc Worlds will give me personally even more thrills and excitement than the 1500/5000m champs..!
Sorry, it is in this video interview from 2020 Jakob says his potensial is best in the half marathon. But that is in the long term. In short term his answer is 5.000:
I really think the odds would be stacked against him. I am not sure he would even be top 5. What is going on here? Presumably if it was the same distance on a track he would have a chance to medal? Maybe he wouldn’t run as well on the grass, dirt or hills? I think the two Ugandans and a couple other Africans would beat him for sure.
It's a great question, and I hope we find out.
Aregawi, Kiplimo, Cheptegei, Kamworor, Kandie, Sawe and Ebenyo are all outstanding Cross Country runners. Jakob's speed endurance and tactical mastery would be less of a factor. The race distance is 29-30 minutes, which is longer than we've seen him go against top-level competition.
Best guess: I think he would finish as high as 4th and as low as 8th if everyone above runs. If it's a bit down with guys skipping for World Indoors or Road Races, he could get on the podium, but I'd still have to imagine he can't beat the two Ugandans.
I don´t think there is more than 1 Ugandan at the moment. Do we think Cheptegei will be running Worlds XC and if he does on a high level?
I think Jakob could medal if he competes in Tallahassee early 2026 and I hope he will. I suppose the route will rather flat which is to Jakob´s advantage.
Other favorites: Kiplimo, Aregawi and Sawe.
I don´t think Jakob will have problems with Kamworor and Ebenyo. And Kandie: Isn´t he out for other reasons?
So you think Jakob´s speed endurance and tactical mastery are the reasons he wins longer distance races?
I will say that he is almost unbeatably on the 5000m because he has at least as good endurance/ aerobic capacity as his top competitors AND he can run the last 2000m, 1000m, 800m, 400m, 200m and 100m faster than everybody else who is competing from the 3000m and up. And that ability will be quite useful in a flat XC route.
He will never be able to beat the East African lightweigthers on a extremely hilly route as Aarhus 2019.
Aregawi, Kiplimo, Cheptegei, Kamworor, Kandie, Sawe and Ebenyo are all outstanding Cross Country runners. Jakob's speed endurance and tactical mastery would be less of a factor. The race distance is 29-30 minutes, which is longer than we've seen him go against top-level competition.
Best guess: I think he would finish as high as 4th and as low as 8th if everyone above runs. If it's a bit down with guys skipping for World Indoors or Road Races, he could get on the podium, but I'd still have to imagine he can't beat the two Ugandans.
I don´t think there is more than 1 Ugandan at the moment. Do we think Cheptegei will be running Worlds XC and if he does on a high level?
I think Jakob could medal if he competes in Tallahassee early 2026 and I hope he will. I suppose the route will rather flat which is to Jakob´s advantage.
Other favorites: Kiplimo, Aregawi and Sawe.
I don´t think Jakob will have problems with Kamworor and Ebenyo. And Kandie: Isn´t he out for other reasons?
So you think Jakob´s speed endurance and tactical mastery are the reasons he wins longer distance races?
I will say that he is almost unbeatably on the 5000m because he has at least as good endurance/ aerobic capacity as his top competitors AND he can run the last 2000m, 1000m, 800m, 400m, 200m and 100m faster than everybody else who is competing from the 3000m and up. And that ability will be quite useful in a flat XC route.
He will never be able to beat the East African lightweigthers on a extremely hilly route as Aarhus 2019.
It’s not beyond the realm of possibility that he will be gapped before the 8K point. Certainly that last 100m is not going to help him much.
I don´t think there is more than 1 Ugandan at the moment. Do we think Cheptegei will be running Worlds XC and if he does on a high level?
I think Jakob could medal if he competes in Tallahassee early 2026 and I hope he will. I suppose the route will rather flat which is to Jakob´s advantage.
Other favorites: Kiplimo, Aregawi and Sawe.
I don´t think Jakob will have problems with Kamworor and Ebenyo. And Kandie: Isn´t he out for other reasons?
So you think Jakob´s speed endurance and tactical mastery are the reasons he wins longer distance races?
I will say that he is almost unbeatably on the 5000m because he has at least as good endurance/ aerobic capacity as his top competitors AND he can run the last 2000m, 1000m, 800m, 400m, 200m and 100m faster than everybody else who is competing from the 3000m and up. And that ability will be quite useful in a flat XC route.
He will never be able to beat the East African lightweigthers on a extremely hilly route as Aarhus 2019.
Well months later (that's why my post had Kandie), here's the lay of the land. Kiplimo and Aregawi would go off as major favorites to go 1-2 if they both ran. So then we are looking at Sawe, Ebenyo, Kamworor (too old), Cheptegei, Fisher (a tad unproven in XC at this level).
Out of respect for Cheptegei, he has to be favored to finish at least third if he is taking the race seriously.
After that, Sawe and Ebenyo would go off as slight favorites in my head. Ebenyo hasn't done great at the full marathon, but his XC credentials are quite good. I think he is way better than when he finished 6th in 2023. Sawe has flashed high-end ability and has a ridiculous engine as we know.
Even though, I agree with you that a flat FSU circuit helps him, these guys over 29 minutes still have an advantage.
Fisher and Jakob feels like a toss-up at 10K on grass. So I'd handicap the podium as I had and then Jakob in 5th with one of the Kenyan perhaps having an off day, and Jakob outkicking Fisher let's say.
I think Kiplimo, Aregawi and Fisher are definite to run. I'd be optimistic about Ebenyo and Jakob running. I am doubtful on Cheptegei or Sawe. Other dark horses are Lobalu, Blanks, Mantz, and Habtom Samuel.
This post was edited 4 minutes after it was posted.
While the conditions are much tougher at World XC vs EU XC champs and the competition is also much tougher, he has run 10K ish distances in XC conditions and won multiple gold medals at EU XC and U23 EU XC distances.
I think he would transition just fine to World XC if he felt like it and be a medal threat but not as sure as on the track.
I don´t think there is more than 1 Ugandan at the moment. Do we think Cheptegei will be running Worlds XC and if he does on a high level?
I think Jakob could medal if he competes in Tallahassee early 2026 and I hope he will. I suppose the route will rather flat which is to Jakob´s advantage.
Other favorites: Kiplimo, Aregawi and Sawe.
I don´t think Jakob will have problems with Kamworor and Ebenyo. And Kandie: Isn´t he out for other reasons?
So you think Jakob´s speed endurance and tactical mastery are the reasons he wins longer distance races?
I will say that he is almost unbeatably on the 5000m because he has at least as good endurance/ aerobic capacity as his top competitors AND he can run the last 2000m, 1000m, 800m, 400m, 200m and 100m faster than everybody else who is competing from the 3000m and up. And that ability will be quite useful in a flat XC route.
He will never be able to beat the East African lightweigthers on a extremely hilly route as Aarhus 2019.
Well months later (that's why my post had Kandie), here's the lay of the land. Kiplimo and Aregawi would go off as major favorites to go 1-2 if they both ran. So then we are looking at Sawe, Ebenyo, Kamworor (too old), Cheptegei, Fisher (a tad unproven in XC at this level).
Out of respect for Cheptegei, he has to be favored to finish at least third if he is taking the race seriously.
After that, Sawe and Ebenyo would go off as slight favorites in my head. Ebenyo hasn't done great at the full marathon, but his XC credentials are quite good. I think he is way better than when he finished 6th in 2023. Sawe has flashed high-end ability and has a ridiculous engine as we know.
Even though, I agree with you that a flat FSU circuit helps him, these guys over 29 minutes still have an advantage.
Fisher and Jakob feels like a toss-up at 10K on grass. So I'd handicap the podium as I had and then Jakob in 5th with one of the Kenyan perhaps having an off day, and Jakob outkicking Fisher let's say.
I think Kiplimo, Aregawi and Fisher are definite to run. I'd be optimistic about Ebenyo and Jakob running. I am doubtful on Cheptegei or Sawe. Other dark horses are Lobalu, Blanks, Mantz, and Habtom Samuel.
I must admit that I realized too late that I answered to an old thread where I even wrote several posts more than a year ago.
But I still think he has a medal chance in Tallahassee if he finds time in his schedule to run it. I am afraid he might been doing altitude training in Sierra Nevada, Spain at that time (early January 2026).
I must admit that I realized too late that I answered to an old thread where I even wrote several posts more than a year ago.
But I still think he has a medal chance in Tallahassee if he finds time in his schedule to run it. I am afraid he might been doing altitude training in Sierra Nevada, Spain at that time (early January 2026).
I wouldn't quite get that one...European XC Champs is 4 weeks before, and then there's a long time until European Indoors (13 weeks). Plenty of time to get in an altitude trip after Worlds.
I must admit that I realized too late that I answered to an old thread where I even wrote several posts more than a year ago.
But I still think he has a medal chance in Tallahassee if he finds time in his schedule to run it. I am afraid he might been doing altitude training in Sierra Nevada, Spain at that time (early January 2026).
I wouldn't quite get that one...European XC Champs is 4 weeks before, and then there's a long time until European Indoors (13 weeks). Plenty of time to get in an altitude trip after Worlds.
I suppose that he will be celebrating Christmas in Norway.
But let´s cross our fingers that he will find time for a week (he needs time to get adjusted) in Florida in the beginning of next year. He could bring his wife and little daughter!