Narve Nordas on Niels Laros: "We're talking about a talent the size of Jakob - No doubt about it."

No one claimed he was a journeyman grinder. He would have moved gradually along through a tough, competitive system before he was noticed. It probably took 3-5 years and he is now 22-24. Look at Jakob. He ran since he was a little kid and didn't run 3:56 until age 16, I think, and then progressed to 3:31 at 17, and so on. You don't just show up at 3:34 with no history of competition unless you are concealing your age and maybe even competing under a different name. As I have shown, this is a real pattern for top Kenyan 1500m runners.

Just a litany of things here. You realize Cheruiyot could train and race in high school just like Hobbs Kessler. Nobody said he didn’t. You assume teenage Kenyans can’t train? Bizarre. If anything I bet they train a lot more/harder. But that doesn’t age them 5 years.

Noah Ngeny who got a major car accident in 2001. Nice exclusion there.

Kwemoi I have no idea, but he ran 27:16 last year in a 10K, he just seems constantly hurt. He’s even run 13:14 in a low key 5k ftw this year. Injury not age seems the issue.

Komen who I think it’s widely known made his money and was pretty content to drink/eat in the aftermath.

The Silas one seems odd to bring up considering he peaked at age 24. Have you heard of Charlie Grice?

Choge? He ran 59:16 at age 30. How old do you want to make him.

I think the biggest issue with your argument is a complete lack of consistency. Do you find it more or less suspicious if a Kenyan athlete has years of results before the hit it big? Many of the guys you listed were running very fast at age 17-19 before a careers peak at age 20-22. I’d find it very believable they either a) train at a level much higher than comparable Western/US teens b) could be a 1-3 years older than listed c) experience more burnout/stagnation from training like pros at a younger age. But Cheruiyot doesn’t fit the pattern of many of your guys here as he literally was at the senior level in the second year of real results. Look at someone like Muktar Edris and that fits to me the profile of a guy blatantly 4 years older than listed. Reynold? Not really.

Again you’ve created this weird alternate history for him. Isn’t the whole narrative for Jakob that he unlike most Westerners ran as much as many East Africans teens? So why would it be shocking if Reynold Cheruiyot son of two good but not great pro Kenyan runners (like Laros) might train a lot in school? Just because he doesn’t have results in the WA database doesn’t mean he never raced. There’re school competitions and for him to even get into Kip Keino means he had shown promise locally. All you have shown really is Kenyans don’t have long careers, and also many run fast at young ages. Maybe too fast to plausibly believe. But this idea that Cheruiyot has grinded away for years to get noticed you have shown zero proof of.

Jakob is way better

Not true, they were held in august 2018 and Jakob was 17 and 11 months. If we use December 31st cutoff (world athletics system) they basically have the same times, Jakob just has the advantage to have his birthday at the end of track season VS Niels who has his just before the beginning of track season.

To me they’re equally impressive for the moment, Niels might even be slightly more impressive in terms of pure abilities right now, he just doesn’t have the opportunities Jakob had because the field (especially the european field) is deeper and much stronger now.

- There’s no way 2018 Jakob would have run anywhere close to 1:44
- They have the same time at 1500m (3:31.18 for Jakob vs 3:31.25 for Niels in the world final dying the last 100m in like 15/16s)
- They’re very close at 5000m (13:17 vs 13:23 but both probably could have run much faster).

Add to that Niels running 4:49, beating world medalist Narve Gilje Nordas and a lot of very good runners in the process, which is faster than what Jakob ran when he was almost 2 years older in 2020 (I know he probably could have run faster). That’s really impressive range and abilities.

If I had to say one thing about it though, I think Niels is the more purely talented one (improved very quickly after starting to take it seriously around 2020/2021 and very good foot speed) but he doesn’t have the same mentality Jakob showed at his age.

When asked about his competitors, Jakob was always saying he would beat everybody, even when he was by far not the fastest in the field. He had no respect for his elders, that’s why he accomplished so much at such a young age.
On the other hand, Niels to me (at least before this track season), seems like someone who doesn’t realize quite yet how good he is, he’s clearly world class but still goes to track euro u20 and is satisfied with a double.
Compare that to Jakob, who said u20 euro when he was 16 is one of his worst memories, because he only got the double and not the triple. He even wanted to come back two years later and avenge that loss by going for the quintuple 800-1500-steeplechase-5000-10000.

Niels doesn’t have those kind of about crazy goals, even when asked about the world championships this year he was very measured and didn’t want to say he wants to go, he was like euro u20 is the primary goal and then he’ll see.

Both mentalities are fine and I’m sure Niels will get more confident as he gets more experienced.

Then again, IMO Laros is the more strictly talented one, but Jakob was nurtured to be a champion, from training to lifestyle to mentality, he had that special aura around him.

Everything about him was showing that he would either be an all time great or never run again, he would never have accepted to become a pro runner if that meant he would be just some guy in the field who’s happy to be there and not the best in the world.

In terms of pure abilities, I put 2023 Niels a bit ahead of 2018 Jakob, but if I had to bet on who was the more likely to become an all time great from what they have shown so far, I would have bet on 2018 Jakob every single time.

This all gets settled if Laros wins tomorrow

The superspikes have to be a part of this, and even in the conservative end they might aid .75 in the 1500 let’s say? That is significant here when you’re talking about the similarity of all these guys’ time. 3:31 was a different thing in 2023 vs 2018.

Funny how the "super-spikes" make such a difference over 1500 but none over the 800.

I love the way this board takes a doped sport so seriously.

Let's see you sh*tbag europoors run something half decent in the sprints.

Your poverty excuse for a fast twitch training program struggles and gasps to send a single teen under 47. Meanwhile the US has 15 year olds running under 46 seconds with ease.

Your dogsh*t continental record record of 44.33 wasn't even broken until this year. Where are your sub-44s? Where are your sub 9.8s? Where are you sub 19.7s?

also funny how Jakob only improved 1 second from 2018 to 2019 when he recieved super spikes.

dude, good job, good work, you won the argument, drugs, genetics.

now shut the f*** up.

Not correct! Jakob has had a lot of injuries throughout the years…

No he didn’t. Jakob hasn’t run an 800m all year, and neither last year…

Yes,and the middle/long distance doping has shifted from africa,to britain,usa,norway,spain and the netherlands.

Sure you have got a point here. But you over do it. -Håvard B. Ingvaldsen from little Norway f.ex did 45.94 still 18 years old in 2021. Of course not as good as your sub 46 US 15 years olds (with ease), but this year (as a 20 years old) he went 44.39 in Worlds semi finals (not all out). But Norway even got a better sprinter: A guy who ran 45.94 with hurdles in front of him -has US got any teenagers beating that (with ease)..?

We're all too used to youthful promise not getting realised into greatness around here. However, what I expect will happen with Reynold having the benefit of parents who already understand the athletics landscape and the fact that he acquired good management very early in his career, is that he'll continue to develop and might end up getting hated on this board as a "spoiler", much like Mary Moraa, because people here can't understand that it's possible for an athlete to make better gains at a slightly older age than younger, more favoured, rivals.

Like for like, apples to apples.

Yeah, I destroyed the myth of East African natural superiority that was hold8ng back Western kids for decades, but now I have to shut up?

No.