That’s the type of performance it will take to (maybe) beat Ingebrigtsen. 53.5 last lap/2:24.3 last K in a 12:52 race and someone beats Jakob by a stride.
Are you typing as an analyst, a bettor or a fan? Seven-forty-five 3000m will bother J Ingebrigtsen more than 8-something through 3000m at last year's W.C. The field simply needs the race to be won with a reasonable final 600m. The field doesn't want J Ingebrigtsen to be fresh enough to race 83.xx for final 600m. As long as no one is fresh enough for sub-84.5 final 600m, J I can be defeated. I say even 62 laps will do it.
Please. In Florence 2021 DL. In the front 7:44. Jakob 7:46. Then he threw in a round 59.5. And there he was. So come on.
This post was edited 44 seconds after it was posted.
One tactic and only one race tactic can prevail against J Ingebrigtsen in 5000m:
J I has never raced sub-12:50 in an international championship format 5000m. No need for attempts to elbow/box-in, just nice and even 62 second laps through 10 laps followed by 600m sub-1:28.5 should be all it takes to defeat him, 5000m.
You could not play into his hands any better. Jakob isn't getting dropped any at any pace over 12:40. A sub 1:28.5 600m won't be too much either unless it is significantly faster.
I’ve been watching 5000m championship races for a few decades and can’t think of any examples of team tactics successful used or runners sacrificing themselves for teammates.
Can someone give examples or show why it may be different this time?
This video is from the Doha 2019 WC 5 k final. The E’s are very aggressive at the front. Pushing the pace.
In the 10k of same championships they never led. They were always behind Kipruto , his Kenyan teammates and Cheptegei. They took a different approach in this 5k final.
At this WC’s will they use the wait and see approach or be the aggressors since their slow man is a 12:42 dude.
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I’ve been watching 5000m championship races for a few decades and can’t think of any examples of team tactics successful used or runners sacrificing themselves for teammates.
Can someone give examples or show why it may be different this time?
This video is from the Doha 2019 WC 5 k final. The E’s are very aggressive at the front. Pushing the pace.
In the 10k of same championships they never led. They were always behind Kipruto , his Kenyan teammates and Cheptegei. They took a different approach in this 5k final.
At this WC’s will they use the wait and see approach or be the aggressors since their slow man is a 12:42 dude.
Why not just say, "how to beat Jakob in the 5000"?
Why the lame, pseudo special-ops, action movie language?
In fact, it doesn't even make sense, because you aren't trying to neutralise him. Neutralise would imply you are trying to draw level - which may make sense in a team sport, wherein you attempt to neutralise a rival team's best player, thereby allowing the rest of your team to outplay a weakened opposition; but in an individual sport - you want to beat every other opponent, not neutralise them.
How do you KNOW that? By heavenly inspiration? Or an unknown epistemological position? Please elaborate.
I've already elaborated in many comments before. I thought i answered to you too.
Anyway i will list the reasons again:
1) incredibily strong field (five 12'35"-12'40" guys)
2) recovery (the ones that "double" are less fresh than those who focus only on 5k).
3) Gjert-Jakob end of collaboration (Gjert was the only one who could know how to improve Jakob performances and, overall, how to program the peak of shape.
4) ethiopian team work.
This post was edited 33 seconds after it was posted.
I've already elaborated in many comments before. I thought i answered to you too.
3) Gjert-Jakob end of collaboration (Gjert was the only one who could know how to improve Jakob performances and, overall, how to program the peak of shape.
Lol, the stuff I read on this website. How do you explain the last 1.5 years of dominance and improvement from Jakob then?
IMO, the problem with running a 12:40 flat pace is that whoever will be in the front pushing that pace is unlikely to win. So basically sacrificing himself. No one wants to do that in a WC final.
And the problem with running over 12:50, is that Jakob will likely squeeze them all in the last k.
IMO, there's a fine line where they should run around 12:45-12:50 for the first 3k, and then push the last 2k at 12:40 pace, preventing Jakob to completely control the last k, while not burning themselves out for the last 400.
Given JI's 7:24 WR two mile, pretty sure he would not be phased running a 12:40 pace
He’s probably in about 12:40 shape. Not faster.
Komen ran 3:29, 7:20, 12:39.
Jakob ran 3:27low, 7:19/20c.
This would mean Jakob beats Komen by over 2 seconds at 1500m, but Komen is stronger and makes up time at 3k. This likely means Komen beats JI at 5k. I’d give him 12:40-12:41.
We have to remember Girma ran 7:23 indoors and Kiplimo ran 7:26 4 years ago. It’s likely all of these guys are 7:21-22 dudes with much more distance focused background.
Given JI's 7:24 WR two mile, pretty sure he would not be phased running a 12:40 pace
He’s probably in about 12:40 shape. Not faster.
Komen ran 3:29, 7:20, 12:39.
Jakob ran 3:27low, 7:19/20c.
This would mean Jakob beats Komen by over 2 seconds at 1500m, but Komen is stronger and makes up time at 3k. This likely means Komen beats JI at 5k. I’d give him 12:40-12:41.
We have to remember Girma ran 7:23 indoors and Kiplimo ran 7:26 4 years ago. It’s likely all of these guys are 7:21-22 dudes with much more distance focused background.
Given JI's 7:24 WR two mile, pretty sure he would not be phased running a 12:40 pace
He’s probably in about 12:40 shape. Not faster.
Komen ran 3:29, 7:20, 12:39.
Jakob ran 3:27low, 7:19/20c.
This would mean Jakob beats Komen by over 2 seconds at 1500m, but Komen is stronger and makes up time at 3k. This likely means Komen beats JI at 5k. I’d give him 12:40-12:41.
We have to remember Girma ran 7:23 indoors and Kiplimo ran 7:26 4 years ago. It’s likely all of these guys are 7:21-22 dudes with much more distance focused background.
So much speculation!
You will possibly also find a speculative explanation if Jakob beat them as easy as he did last year.
It isn´t likely that all these guys are 7:21-22 in the 3000m. Aregawi´s 12:41 equals 7:23 in the 3000m.
But using your logic: Since Aregawi is a distance focused guy his 3000m time is probably relatively weaker.
I suppose that you know Kiplimo is out with injury? He ran 7:26 almost 3 years ago but he hasn´t been able to improve the time since. I, however, estimate that he could run 7:24 if he joins a fast well paced 3000m.
I've already elaborated in many comments before. I thought i answered to you too.
Anyway i will list the reasons again:
1) incredibily strong field (five 12'35"-12'40" guys)
2) recovery (the ones that "double" are less fresh than those who focus only on 5k).
3) Gjert-Jakob end of collaboration (Gjert was the only one who could know how to improve Jakob performances and, overall, how to program the peak of shape.
4) ethiopian team work.
Theres going to be zero Ethiopian team work.
Explain when Kejelcha/Gebrewhit ever ran a ‘team’ race.
Aregawi will be smoked after the 10k against a big field. Already looked tired in his last 5000m in the Diamond league so doubling is not going to help his chances here.
Jakob will be more than recovered after the 1500m rounds/finals. Wont say the same about the 10k guys doubling though
1) incredibily strong field (five 12'35"-12'40" guys)
2) recovery (the ones that "double" are less fresh than those who focus only on 5k).
3) Gjert-Jakob end of collaboration (Gjert was the only one who could know how to improve Jakob performances and, overall, how to program the peak of shape.
4) ethiopian team work.
Theres going to be zero Ethiopian team work.
Explain when Kejelcha/Gebrewhit ever ran a ‘team’ race.
Aregawi will be smoked after the 10k against a big field. Already looked tired in his last 5000m in the Diamond league so doubling is not going to help his chances here.
Jakob will be more than recovered after the 1500m rounds/finals. Wont say the same about the 10k guys doubling though
The news of tonight Is that Franco Bragagna (the sports commentator of italian national TV) said that Jakob has an injury and he decided to run only the 1500m skipping the 5000m for sure. He said it slightly before 1500m batteries took place. He was sure that Jakob has a minor muscle injury and he decided to run the 1500m only and to skip the 5k.
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