Having all athletes in such a short range of level is very different from the usual scenario where there is one-two guys clearly above others. Here it would be a big mess from the start with several runners fighting for desired position in the pack. You would see them agressively elbowing their way for leading or 2nd position as they are all used to race in this position and pretty much all think they are the best. Some would fall already at this point. Some would be disqualified.
The last 100 could also be messy.
Walker is the biggest and strongest. He'd use his size to get the best position. Good enough positioning for a run at a medal over the final 300.
If the race is run like the 2016 Olympics, Jacob I gets last and dudes like Ngeny, Coe, Centro, and Kiprop and maybe** still El G duke it out for the win.
If the race is run like the 2020/21 Tokyo Olympics, El G wins easily.
No way a race with 12 sub 3:30 guys runs as slow as the 2016 Olympics
The field of 11 doesn't include 12 sub 3:30 athletes but 7.
Centro takes #1 and it's not close. For every argument you might make I can find 5 letsrun posts detailing how Centro would crush your dreams. 1500 is the most tactical race and there is only ONE tactical king - MATTHEW MF CENTROWITZ baby let's GO!
This would be a bloodbath. As much as I love Centro, I think he'd be spit out the back with Peter Rono. I see the real battle upfront being a match between Jakob, El G, and Morceli for the lead with El G taking it. I think those three would focus too much on each other and I actually think Noah Ngeny would end up winning, riding a hot pace but hanging tough while all the others fade away or waste their kick trying to hang.
Centro takes #1 and it's not close. For every argument you might make I can find 5 letsrun posts detailing how Centro would crush your dreams. 1500 is the most tactical race and there is only ONE tactical king - MATTHEW MF CENTROWITZ baby let's GO!
Centro isn't even in it. The biggest fluke in half a century. It wasn't a 1500 race - it was a 400 race, and he isn't even the fastest over that distance. Coe, for example, who could run 45x flying start, would eat him up.
This race probably has a variety of outcomes if you run it 10 times but I think there is one that is most likely. Jakob probably takes the early lead just entering the home straight after a mad dash for position in the first 200. I think El G slots in behind him with Morceli and Ngeny running in 3rd and 4th. I think that there is a bunch of jostling for position behind those 4 over the next 2 laps but eventually Coe makes it into 5th at the bell. Ultimately El G blows by Jakob with 200 to go and holds on to win. Ngeny is the best of the rest and Coe kicks for 3rd. Morceli and Makhloufi pass Jakob in the last 30m for 4th and 5th. Jakob finishes 6th. Cacho uses a brilliant last lap to move from 10th to 7th just ahead of Kiprop who managed to bounce from 6th at 400 meters to last at 1100 and then kick for 8th. Centro out leans John Walker in the battle for 9th and 10th but Walker gets the consolation prize of a massive lifetime best. Peter Rono ends up last.
Good post.
Makhloufi is underrated here, he’s absolutely way better than Wightman at 1500m and 800m and we saw what Wightman did to Jakob at worlds in a 3:29.5 race. Obviously he wasn’t in his prime, so it’s unfair to him, but we have to go with what we’ve already seen, and maybe in 5 years I can come back and realise I was completely wrong.
I’m a big Jakob fan, but with new shoes, tracks, and pacing lights, we’re not looking at a guy who would be considered one of the fastest in that field anymore, and who could just run a fast race from the front for a guaranteed top spot. And if he tries he’s probably getting outkicked by 4 or 5 guys. And we know he doesn’t have one of the best top end speed in that field either.
It would be very interesting to see the dynamics of the race. Kiprop is a really good runner but he’s probably going to mess up his strategy in a field so stacked.
Could we even see some team work between runners who would benefit off a particularly fast or slow pace ?
This is a fun topic. I see the tiers something like this:
Tier 1: Hicham El Guerrouj, Noureddine Morceli, '84 Sebastian Coe
Tier 2: Noah Ngeny, Asbel Kiprop (assuming juiced as he was), Jakob Ingebrigtsen
Tier 3: Taoufik Mahkloufi, Fermin Cacho
Tier 4: Matt Centrowitz, John Walker, Peter Rono
Hicham El Guerrouj is the best male 1500 runner, and arguably the best male distance runner, to ever live (and probably dope, but I am going to ignore that for the fun of it). But he is so much better than anyone else (7-1 over 1500/mile vs. Morceli, 21-1 vs. Ngeny) that I think the others are too smart to dare let him lead. I think that puts Morceli, '84 Coe, and Ngeny in the hunt. The only person I could see trying to lead aside from El G would be Jakob, knowing he's gonna get massacred that last 600 or so if he doesn't.
As much as I dislike Coevett I think we're disregarding Coe. He just didn't really lose big 1500 races that often, and 1:41.73 is no joke. I think there's a scenario where Hicham lets it dawdle (3:32 or slower race) and Coe wins it all. If he doesn't, I think Ngeny just bides his time between El G, Jakob, and others and wins like he did in Sydney. Remember, by almost all metrics, 2000 was El G's prime, and he got beat. He was in better overall shape that year than in 2004.
Final answer: The field starts bunched up as El G hopes and prays that someone will start pouring in some pace. They do not. Asbel is loping around in last place. They go through 400 in 62.1 and with that pace continuing, through 600 at 1:32.9, El G takes over at 600 and rachets it down -- they go through 800 in 2:00.9. He continues to lead and the pack starts to thin. Jakob leads an odd chase pack about 5-10m off the lead and so does all of his own leading despite being about a second back. Asbel sprints up to El G's shoulder at 1000, which they pass in 2:27.8, but then the sudden pace injection gets to him and he falls back into the pack. El G goes through 1200 in 2:54.7 (53.8 3rd 400), with Morceli just behind him. Ngeny, then '84 Coe. Makhloufi and Cacho makes a move to latch on to them but they gave a bit too much room.
El G hangs onto the inside and distances from Morceli over the next 200, but Ngeny swings around him and '84 Coe follows him around the bend. They pass Morceli. El G pours it all into the final 300 and runs a 39.2 final 300 for a 3:33.9 and blazing final 1000, but Coe inches by him just before the line in 3:33.7. Ngeny lets up before the line when he know she can't catch either of them and is almost caught by Morceli. Asbel yo-yos his way to 7th, not able to catch Jakob in the straight, who gets kicked past by Makh daddy.
1. '84 Sebastian Coe, 3:33.7
2. Hicham El Guerrouj, 3:33.9
3. Noah Ngeny, 3:34.4
4. Noureddine Morceli, 3:34.5
5. Taofik Makhloufi, 3:34.9
6. Jakob Ingebrigtsen, 3:35.0
7. Asbel Kiprop, 3:35.3
8. Fermin Cacho, 3:36.1
Two notes on this:
- Your stat about El Guerrouj being 7-1 vs. Morceli is inaccurate and misleading. Morceli beat El Guerrouj twice in 1995, in the midst of going 54-0 in finals at distances over 800 from August 21st 1992 to September 7th 1996 (he won all his prelims in that span, for the record). After 1996, Morceli declined dramatically as El Guerrouj was entering his prime, so there head-head record doesn’t mean a whole lot.
- Why in the world would Jakob (and most of the field) run like this? Why are they falling off the pace after the first 800 in 62.1-58.8? They’re Olympic champions. Not only would there be no gaps opening up throughout the first 1200, but Jakob would not let the race go that slowly, he would set the pace. We saw him do it in Eugene and his regret post-race was that he didn’t run more aggressively and try to run 3:27. He would have front run in Tokyo if Cheruiyot hadn’t taken over and set a satisfactory pace. He will make sure Budapest is a fast race.
It is interesting to think about how fast the all-time greats would finish the final 400 after going through 1100 in 3 flat. Given that Coe had the best foot speed, he'd probably close in 49.6 for the win.
This. It would be a tactical race. Perhaps a fast one (3:30-32), but still a tactical race and Coe had 45 400m speed.
- Your stat about El Guerrouj being 7-1 vs. Morceli is inaccurate and misleading. Morceli beat El Guerrouj twice in 1995, in the midst of going 54-0 in finals at distances over 800 from August 21st 1992 to September 7th 1996 (he won all his prelims in that span, for the record). After 1996, Morceli declined dramatically as El Guerrouj was entering his prime, so there head-head record doesn’t mean a whole lot.
- Why in the world would Jakob (and most of the field) run like this? Why are they falling off the pace after the first 800 in 62.1-58.8? They’re Olympic champions. Not only would there be no gaps opening up throughout the first 1200, but Jakob would not let the race go that slowly, he would set the pace. We saw him do it in Eugene and his regret post-race was that he didn’t run more aggressively and try to run 3:27. He would have front run in Tokyo if Cheruiyot hadn’t taken over and set a satisfactory pace. He will make sure Budapest is a fast race.
Thanks for correcting that Morceli stat. I don’t think anyone in the field could outkick Morceli. The only way he loses is if someone can front run 3:26 or faster. Even then, he still might outkick them.
Thanks for correcting that Morceli stat. I don’t think anyone in the field could outkick Morceli. The only way he loses is if someone can front run 3:26 or faster. Even then, he still might outkick them.
Agreed. When Morceli was running 3:27.37 followed by 3:27.52 13 days later, the second fastest man in history was 3:29.46, more than 2 seconds behind. If peak Morceli had been in some of El Guerrouj’s fastest races or had a modern pacing setup, he was likely a 3:26 guy, with a significantly better kick than El Guerrouj.
No way a race with 12 sub 3:30 guys runs as slow as the 2016 Olympics
The field of 11 doesn't include 12 sub 3:30 athletes but 7.
They would all be sub 3:30 with today's shoes and tracks, except Centro. Is this hypothetical race going to be like that event they had during the lockdowns with Jakob racing Tim a continent apart, only in this case years or decades apart?
The field of 11 doesn't include 12 sub 3:30 athletes but 7.
They would all be sub 3:30 with today's shoes and tracks, except Centro. Is this hypothetical race going to be like that event they had during the lockdowns with Jakob racing Tim a continent apart, only in this case years or decades apart?
Five seconds improvement because of shoes and tracks compared to the 80s?
OK, for someone who hasn't even understood the easy question of the thread, this might look reasonable.
This is a fun topic. I see the tiers something like this:
Tier 1: Hicham El Guerrouj, Noureddine Morceli, '84 Sebastian Coe
Tier 2: Noah Ngeny, Asbel Kiprop (assuming juiced as he was), Jakob Ingebrigtsen
Tier 3: Taoufik Mahkloufi, Fermin Cacho
Tier 4: Matt Centrowitz, John Walker, Peter Rono
1. '84 Sebastian Coe, 3:33.7
2. Hicham El Guerrouj, 3:33.9
3. Noah Ngeny, 3:34.4
4. Noureddine Morceli, 3:34.5
5. Taofik Makhloufi, 3:34.9
6. Jakob Ingebrigtsen, 3:35.0
7. Asbel Kiprop, 3:35.3
8. Fermin Cacho, 3:36.1
Why do you put a year just ahead of Coe?
I'm not sure why that is confusing. Coe is the only one who won the event twice. The poster is obviously indicating that he/she believes the '84 iteration of Coe is the better of the two.
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