The primary reason Kessler didn't qualify isn't because he's not fast enough. It's positioning. That will come with more racing. Hard to do in practice, though they could try.
What he's likely being taught in practice is what he's doing in races. Warhurst's athletes never LEAD. Sullivan, Willis let others do the work and sat on the rail, never taking control of a race. The opportunity was there for Hobbs to take the lead at 800-1000m and drive the pace from there. But those folks never do it. It's worked out for the prior two, but Hobbs is either gonna need more pop off a pedestrian pace or to diverge from Warhurst's history.
The primary reason Kessler didn't qualify isn't because he's not fast enough. It's positioning. That will come with more racing. Hard to do in practice, though they could try.
Of the three who qualified, who do you think Kessler is clearly better than right now? Who would he have likely beaten with what you are thinking of as better tactics? I think he's just a year away still.
Kessler is 20 years old, relatively inexperienced with championship racing (no NCAA), and still made it further than the other 3:32 guy from this season (Teare). Give him time.
Yes and No.
First, let's not compare Kessler to other runners, it's not fair to him or the other runners. I'm sure Ron and Hobbs aren't celebrating beating Cooper Teare. YES, Hobbs is only 20 years old and definitely has the talent to be a great 1500/Miler, and has shown flashes of that. He has a high ceiling and if coached correctly, which shouldn't be an issue with Ron, although nothing is guaranteed, and bar injury, he should be a world podium contender within a couple years. That being said, Hobbs made the decision to go pro early, and take the money and all that comes with being a professional athlete. No matter his age, he's being paid to perform at a high level, and having run 3:32 and 1:45 this season and not qualifying for the WC team is a substantial disappointment. I'm sure he'll bounce back with some great times this summer and hopefully set the table for next summer's Olympic Games...if he qualifies. The pressure will definitely be on him to make the team, and if for some reason he doesn't he won't be able to lean on the age-inexperience excuse like this year.
Kessler is 20 years old, relatively inexperienced with championship racing (no NCAA), and still made it further than the other 3:32 guy from this season (Teare). Give him time.
Yes and No.
First, let's not compare Kessler to other runners, it's not fair to him or the other runners. I'm sure Ron and Hobbs aren't celebrating beating Cooper Teare. YES, Hobbs is only 20 years old and definitely has the talent to be a great 1500/Miler, and has shown flashes of that. He has a high ceiling and if coached correctly, which shouldn't be an issue with Ron, although nothing is guaranteed, and bar injury, he should be a world podium contender within a couple years. That being said, Hobbs made the decision to go pro early, and take the money and all that comes with being a professional athlete. No matter his age, he's being paid to perform at a high level, and having run 3:32 and 1:45 this season and not qualifying for the WC team is a substantial disappointment. I'm sure he'll bounce back with some great times this summer and hopefully set the table for next summer's Olympic Games...if he qualifies. The pressure will definitely be on him to make the team, and if for some reason he doesn't he won't be able to lean on the age-inexperience excuse like this year.
Good post, I agree. Big Kessler and Warhurst fan by the way. But it would be hard to excuse not making the team next year, barring injury or a fall.
If you are sincere ....I think he was good enough..and did not make the team on this day, you asked. You can be good enough and lose on any given day. I never used the term "lock" or even close regarding his chances. I thought Nuguse was/is clearly the best..Hocker had big game experience and after seeing his prelim, thought he would make it. I thought Kessler would and could make make it, but certainly not a lock, never thought that.
He was good enough. He ran smart. He positioned himself well. But, like you said, off a relatively pedestrian pace, he was, unfortunately, running for fourth place at the end. He was right there and almost looked like he just let it go once the top three got away.
Nevethless, Kessler is one of the biggest talents, at his age, that we have seen in a long time. Fully expect this kid to run sub-3:30 and, with some luck, make the team next year. By 2028, we can no longer call him a kid, and, if he hasn’t made a team, then he’s the second coming of Webb. I don’t expect that though.
I mean he did lose to a college guy though. Even though he's a sophomore, I'd expect him to be running laps around the NCAA. He's 1.5 seconds faster than the 1500 record, has good 800 speed, and would be 5th all time in his 3rd (?) event while being the only non-4th year or older under 7:40. Plus, pro experience, if only for ~2 years.
I wouldn't call it a disaster at all, but I think Kessler is really good and should've been favored to make the team, not just the final. Hopefully we'll see some big times from him later in the season, I think they're coming.
I think you guys overestimate 800m speed carrying over to 1500m finishing speed. They’re just not related at all. Hobbs is not an exception. It’s a rule. does Jakob have the fastest 800m PR? No. does Yared have the fastest 800m PR in the US? No.
In 2016 when Centro won Rio, did he have the fastest 800m PR in the field? No.
your finishing speed has a lot of favors that play into it. It’s not just your 800m PR.
Having the ability to run a fast 800m (1:44-1:46) is definitely an advantage in running a fast 1500m, and ARE directly related to each other. If you've ever run an "ALL OUT" 1500/Mile, you'll know that the stress and pain of the final 300m-400m is very similar to the last 200m-150m of an "ALL OUT" 800m, and by knowing what that feels like and to be able to manage that stress is invaluable to the success of running "FAST" 1500/ Mile. One could also argue that this is the same for the 3000m and 5000m. It's all about being able to adapt to the anaerobic stress at various levels.
He was good enough. He ran smart. He positioned himself well. But, like you said, off a relatively pedestrian pace, he was, unfortunately, running for fourth place at the end. He was right there and almost looked like he just let it go once the top three got away.
Nevethless, Kessler is one of the biggest talents, at his age, that we have seen in a long time. Fully expect this kid to run sub-3:30 and, with some luck, make the team next year. By 2028, we can no longer call him a kid, and, if he hasn’t made a team, then he’s the second coming of Webb. I don’t expect that though.
To be fair to Webb he won US titles in 2004 (age 21), 2005 and 2007. Weaker era until Lagat in 2007 but he was not a bust domestically at all.
If you've ever run an "ALL OUT" 1500/Mile, you'll know that the stress and pain of the final 300m-400m is very similar to the last 200m-150m of an "ALL OUT" 800m
If you've ever run an "ALL OUT" 1500/Mile, you'll know that the stress and pain of the final 300m-400m is very similar to the last 200m-150m of an "ALL OUT" 800m
100% false
Ok.
Let's hear your expert opinion. I'm hoping for some personal experience on this, don't be afraid!
The primary reason Kessler didn't qualify isn't because he's not fast enough. It's positioning. That will come with more racing. Hard to do in practice, though they could try.
What he's likely being taught in practice is what he's doing in races. Warhurst's athletes never LEAD. Sullivan, Willis let others do the work and sat on the rail, never taking control of a race. The opportunity was there for Hobbs to take the lead at 800-1000m and drive the pace from there. But those folks never do it. It's worked out for the prior two, but Hobbs is either gonna need more pop off a pedestrian pace or to diverge from Warhurst's history.
Spot on! Gold was there for the taking in 2016 but Willis didn’t have the cohones to go for it
I think it’s fair to say the way the 800 is raced in college doesn’t hold much value for pros unlike the 1500. Hoppel is about the only guy who came to the pros as a savvy, above-average racer. Why that is I don’t know.
Kessler ran what, 2 outdoor races this year not counting USAs? How do you learn anything from that. Compare that to Hocker’s season when he was 6th at the Olympics. How much does Jakob race?
So far Kessler going pro early has been a bust similar to Drew Hunter.
Thinking about the whole NCAA system experience narrative.
In the last 15 years (11 championship years), 33 runners have placed top 3 in each the mens 1500 and 5000 at USAs in a championship year. Kessler is just over 20 at the moment. 1 runner in the 1500 has been 20 (Hocker 2021). As many have been 36 as 20. The only other person to make the team before their 22nd birthday is future olympic gold medalist centro. Now Kessler has run 3:32 unlike most under 22 Americans, but it's entirely possible Cole Hocker was faster at 20 than Hobbs at the end of the season. Maybe he wasn't quite in 3:31 shape at the trials, but I'm definitely not in the camp that he was a 3:35 guy until the day he ran 3:31. So the only 2 people in the last 15 years to make a team at Kessler's age or even a year older have been a 3:31 guy with elite closing speed and a 3 time outdoor medalist.
People are vindicated in their defense of the NCAA system because every American distance runner who has had success has gone to college. Thats not saying much, as the only one I can think of that went straight to a pro deal is Drew Hunter. Drew is seemingly not too popular on these boards for reasons I don't entirely know, but I don't think he can be a scapegoat for the NCAA absolutists. First off, he's the only example we have (barring European and African athletes), which is not the most ideal sample size. Also, he came in 5th in the US champs over 5000 meters in 2019 at just 21 years old. While Im not going to check the top 5 every year, you have to go back to 2009 to find anyone that age or younger making top 3 (Jager at 20). Drew also ended up making the team in 2019 because he had the standard which Lomong and Kincaid did not. However, he was sidelined due to injuries, and this has since become the story of his career.
Nearing the top of the American 5000m rankings at 21 is very impressive. Nur, for comparison was already 23 last year when he made the team. Correct me if Im wrong, but no one looks back at Cheserek's time at Oregon and says he shouldn't have gone to college because he got hurt and his career didn't lead to superstardom (albeit he does have to compete in the Kenyan trials, not the US ones). If they do, it's not nearly as visceral and is never used to say that someone shouldn't go to college. Both Ches and Drew had a ton of promise and have unfortunately faced much adversity in their careers despite taking two different paths after high school.
Maybe it comes back to the boards underlying obsession with academics and why no one should go to NAU because they won't get a good degree, although this seems like a fringe attitude that I don't want to associate to everyone. Maybe its a genuine belief that the NCAA system makes athletes better despite the numerous counterexamples from other countries. I don't know. At the end of the day, Kessler is young. Sure he is inexperienced, but maybe so were all the NCAA athletes that didn't make teams until they were 22, 24, or 27. He gets another chance next year at 21 to enter the Hocker/Centro stratosphere.
That being said, in my mind, unlike most others who didn't make teams at his age, he was a 3:32 guy. He should have been favored to make the team. I think he agrees, if I remember his interview. Maybe he would've been sharper with a college season, maybe he wouldn't have been as fresh, maybe he would've made the same mistakes. Who's to say.
You’re kidding me, right? A few weeks ago Gault wrote an article about double threshold training. Guess who was interviewed in that article? VNTC. They’ve started doing double threshold this year. Please explain how Ronnie’s training is outdated when he’s implementing the most current training style.
Anyone know any details of Hobbs Kessler's training? He must be running pretty high mileage to be doing double thresholds. Anything on workouts, week structure, mileage etc are appreciated.
There's no such thing as "outdated training". Training programs are constantly evolving and being adjusted. High mileage, low mileage, medium mileage, slow recovery days, fast recovery days, threshold, lactate, hills, tempo, etc... The same elements are always there, it's a matter of adjusting to the athlete's needs. Different training theories always boomerang back at some point.
He was good enough. He ran smart. He positioned himself well. But, like you said, off a relatively pedestrian pace, he was, unfortunately, running for fourth place at the end. He was right there and almost looked like he just let it go once the top three got away.
Nevethless, Kessler is one of the biggest talents, at his age, that we have seen in a long time. Fully expect this kid to run sub-3:30 and, with some luck, make the team next year. By 2028, we can no longer call him a kid, and, if he hasn’t made a team, then he’s the second coming of Webb. I don’t expect that though.
To be fair to Webb he won US titles in 2004 (age 21), 2005 and 2007. Weaker era until Lagat in 2007 but he was not a bust domestically at all.
for someone who ran 3:53 in high school and 3:46 as a pro, to only have 3 national titles is a MASSIVE disappointment. If Nuguse (3:47 and 3:29) only wins 3 national titles, it will be seen as a huge disappointment.
What he's likely being taught in practice is what he's doing in races. Warhurst's athletes never LEAD. Sullivan, Willis let others do the work and sat on the rail, never taking control of a race. The opportunity was there for Hobbs to take the lead at 800-1000m and drive the pace from there. But those folks never do it. It's worked out for the prior two, but Hobbs is either gonna need more pop off a pedestrian pace or to diverge from Warhurst's history.
Spot on! Gold was there for the taking in 2016 but Willis didn’t have the cohones to go for it
Spot off! Unless you are far superior to the competition (very rare), when exactly did we start saying that being on the outside shoulder of the leader was bad racing position? I know not a single person who would call that bad racing tactics. Maybe if you are rudisha, Kipyegon...? Even Sifan hasnt lead whole races. What percentage of races are won from the front the whole way? Very low. So im not sure what galaxy you are from that front running is the way to win all races or even the majority. Nick is a silver medalist and couldnt quite beat a few likely doped up east africans. Sure...that was tactics issue. Hogwash.
Just run away from the best 1500m guys out there in a stacked field. Sounds awesome, I'll give it a try. Why didnt we all think of that.
for someone who ran 3:53 in high school and 3:46 as a pro, to only have 3 national titles is a MASSIVE disappointment. If Nuguse (3:47 and 3:29) only wins 3 national titles, it will be seen as a huge disappointment.
Yeah for Webb he never got back to his level after 2007 (where he got hurt before Worlds with a medal in sight). But 3 titles by age 25 is really good, being done at 25 not so much.
Spot off! Unless you are far superior to the competition (very rare), when exactly did we start saying that being on the outside shoulder of the leader was bad racing position? I know not a single person who would call that bad racing tactics. Maybe if you are rudisha, Kipyegon...? Even Sifan hasnt lead whole races. What percentage of races are won from the front the whole way? Very low. So im not sure what galaxy you are from that front running is the way to win all races or even the majority. Nick is a silver medalist and couldnt quite beat a few likely doped up east africans. Sure...that was tactics issue. Hogwash.
Just run away from the best 1500m guys out there in a stacked field. Sounds awesome, I'll give it a try. Why didnt we all think of that.
There’s a difference between how Willis ran global championships, and what the poster might be advocating. Nick ran for 3rd- being positioned in 5th or 6th in the last 200 and trying to kick down athletes at the end. No shame in it, but Centro ran in a manner that gave him a better shot at 1st or 2nd. In Rio it got him gold, and in other races he finished ahead of Willis who was kicking or fading behind him.
To the actual subject, Hobbs was bothered by his hugging the rail/getting boxed in in the final. He said he should’ve moved out like Nuguse and Hocker did. Maybe so but room did open up and Hocker running wide couldn’t really lift his pace the last 100 and just maintained. The problem for Kessler was he couldnt pick up the pace the last 100 after a conservatively run race.
This post was edited 6 minutes after it was posted.
Two additional thoughts: (1) If part of Kessler's issue is tactics/race experience (or lack thereof), it's possible--acknowledging that hindsight is 20-20--that running three road miles since December was too many and that they should, instead, have thrown him into a couple more tight 1500s on a track. His shoe sponsor might be to blame, in part, for any overemphasis on road miles this year (see Atlanta). (2) Given Kessler’s proven capacity for elite times, he might consider practicing becoming more of a frontrunner, especially because his American competitors (e.g. Hocker, but others too) love to kick and are probably faster than Kessler over a final 250. He seemed to have the right idea in the final, tracking Nuguse, and he should arguably build on that and develop the confidence to run from the front, which might also alleviate his apparent anxiety and tactical weakness around getting boxed in.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
Two additional thoughts: (1) If part of Kessler's issue is tactics/race experience (or lack thereof), it's possible--acknowledging that hindsight is 20-20--that running three road miles since December was too many and that they should, instead, have thrown him into a couple more tight 1500s on a track. His shoe sponsor might be to blame, in part, for any overemphasis on road miles this year (see Atlanta). (2) Given Kessler’s proven capacity for elite times, he might consider practicing becoming more of a frontrunner, especially because his American competitors (e.g. Hocker, but others too) love to kick and are probably faster than Kessler over a final 250. He seemed to have the right idea in the final, tracking Nuguse, and he should arguably build on that and develop the confidence to run from the front, which might also alleviate his apparent anxiety and tactical weakness around getting boxed in.
Two road miles that I know of, one was a sponsor commit.