What Nuguse does will be interesting. It’s not definitely true that he’s the only guy who would push the pace before the bell. Teare might like that tactic as well even though he kicked well last year without the heavy-hitter. I would be very surprised if the 200 before the bell is slower than 29.
I asked if all the races were rabbitted time trials where he had to kick off a fast pace. 2:41 at the bell doesn’t qualify as that for me but maybe it does for you.
I just remembered you were the same poster that said Hocker is averagely talented so I don’t know why I bothered. You’re probably just king999.
I was saying average in talent compared to Hobbs and your beloved Nuguse. Obviously a huge talent. But not necessarily overly special when compared to a dude who ran 3:34 at 18. And also being a little facetious.
Yared Nuguse was fit at last USAs. He had run 3:34 two weeks before trial. In that final, I believe he had the second best PR behind Teare at the time.
He ran a very solid 53.3 last 400m and a 39.4 last 300m and got his doors completely off by everyone else. I’m assuming since you watch his races, you remember this one.
He should and would have made last year’s team if the pace were more honest.
Again, you’re defensive about something that is plainly obvious. No one is saying he can’t kick. But for some runners in the field, last year’s final is there ideal scenario. For Yared, it’s not his best chance.
Quite frankly, I want him on the team. So in my ideal situation he doesn’t leave until the last 400m.
Yes I remember Sean ruining his last year, and unlike you I also remember the years before that when he was known for nipping guys at the line.
What Nuguse does will be interesting. It’s not definitely true that he’s the only guy who would push the pace before the bell. Teare might like that tactic as well even though he kicked well last year without the heavy-hitter. I would be very surprised if the 200 before the bell is slower than 29.
Yared to the rest of the US field is like Jakob to the world field. He should be able to front run most of the race and win, and that’s in his best interest. Teare should help him do this. Teare’s best bet is that Hocker is still not quite at peak fitness and to burn him off in a fast final. This tactic might also be best v Hobbs. They also don’t want Green anywhere close with 400 to go. Certainly Hobbs is fit for a single fast race, but even he may not be quite strong enough for rounds. Both Teare and Yared will be best served by a very fast race and they can make it happen.
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Very plausible scenario. 3:31 would be insane, but don’t you think Teare and Nuguse could drive this train a little faster? If it is a 3:34-5 race, then yes, that opens the door for Hocker and others and all of the favorites are vulnerable. If they can make it a low 3:33 race or so, then it becomes much less likely that Teare is nipped at the line by Hocker or others. Do you think that’s just too fast for a USA final? If they can’t do it, Teare at least will be a sitting duck.
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It's USA's so it's not going to be fast. Someone will take the lead, Holt or Teare is my guess, and slow down the pace.
Everyone thinks they have a dynamite kick! Nuguse is the best closer this year and Kessler just ran a 1:45 800. I hear Hocker is getting back to form, and that combined with all the BTC athletes underperforming, so I have him edging Teare out.....just like the old days.
Very plausible scenario. 3:31 would be insane, but don’t you think Teare and Nuguse could drive this train a little faster? If it is a 3:34-5 race, then yes, that opens the door for Hocker and others and all of the favorites are vulnerable. If they can make it a low 3:33 race or so, then it becomes much less likely that Teare is nipped at the line by Hocker or others. Do you think that’s just too fast for a USA final? If they can’t do it, Teare at least will be a sitting duck.
I actually think Teare is probably the most equipped runner for any style race. Not saying he’s a lock. But if the bell lap was hit in 2:50 instead of 2:35, I wouldn’t be any less confident in Teare.
He’s proven to be in shape running 3:32 in May. It’s quite possible he & Hobbs would’ve run 3:30-31 if they went to Oslo or Lausanne.
And we’ve seen him win slow races with a 51 last 400m like last year.
Very plausible scenario. 3:31 would be insane, but don’t you think Teare and Nuguse could drive this train a little faster? If it is a 3:34-5 race, then yes, that opens the door for Hocker and others and all of the favorites are vulnerable. If they can make it a low 3:33 race or so, then it becomes much less likely that Teare is nipped at the line by Hocker or others. Do you think that’s just too fast for a USA final? If they can’t do it, Teare at least will be a sitting duck.
I actually think Teare is probably the most equipped runner for any style race. Not saying he’s a lock. But if the bell lap was hit in 2:50 instead of 2:35, I wouldn’t be any less confident in Teare.
He’s proven to be in shape running 3:32 in May. It’s quite possible he & Hobbs would’ve run 3:30-31 if they went to Oslo or Lausanne.
And we’ve seen him win slow races with a 51 last 400m like last year.
I get it. Teare is not slow at the close of any plausible pace, but he’s also very strong, much more so than many of the others. If they come to the bell at 2:50, something unexpected might happen like Nathan Green or Josh Thompson becoming national champion. If they come to the bell at 2:35-2:40 then a lot of the uncertainty is removed. I guess there’s a big divide between knowing this intellectually and executing without pacers and in the moment.
Yared to the rest of the US field is like Jakob to the world field. He should be able to front run most of the race and win, and that’s in his best interest. Teare should help him do this. Teare’s best bet is that Hocker is still not quite at peak fitness and to burn him off in a fast final. This tactic might also be best v Hobbs. They also don’t want Green anywhere close with 400 to go. Certainly Hobbs is fit for a single fast race, but even he may not be quite strong enough for rounds. Both Teare and Yared will be best served by a very fast race and they can make it happen.
It’s a single preliminary round two days before the final. Hard to imagine Kessler isn’t strong enough to handle that. I always think the “strength to make it through the rounds” thing is overstated; 2-3 mid distance races with 24-48 hours between them doesn’t make it a 10k.
Who among notable names do all of you think won’t make the final? I think there’s a good chance that Centro doesn’t advance. Doesn’t look great for Engels either IMO.
Honestly think betting against Hocker being top 3 is a bad move. In 2021 he didn’t make a move from the pack until ~120 meters to the finish and ended up out kicking an in-form (3:49 two weeks later) Centro. He just ran a (small) PB at 800 a few weeks ago, so I think it’s safe to say he’s in at least ~3:33/2 shape considering his 3:34 season opener. I think he’s the most likely to make the team after Nuguse.
Yared to the rest of the US field is like Jakob to the world field. He should be able to front run most of the race and win, and that’s in his best interest. Teare should help him do this. Teare’s best bet is that Hocker is still not quite at peak fitness and to burn him off in a fast final. This tactic might also be best v Hobbs. They also don’t want Green anywhere close with 400 to go. Certainly Hobbs is fit for a single fast race, but even he may not be quite strong enough for rounds. Both Teare and Yared will be best served by a very fast race and they can make it happen.
It’s a single preliminary round two days before the final. Hard to imagine Kessler isn’t strong enough to handle that. I always think the “strength to make it through the rounds” thing is overstated; 2-3 mid distance races with 24-48 hours between them doesn’t make it a 10k.
Who among notable names do all of you think won’t make the final? I think there’s a good chance that Centro doesn’t advance. Doesn’t look great for Engels either IMO.
My hot take is no Nuguse. He's undoubtedly the fastest and fittest in the field, but his experience in tactical (championship) races is limited, and running well in such circumstances seems to require experience.
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