Ingebrigtsen vs Nuguse in 1500 at Rabat Diamond League on Sunday!

Jakub is so savvy I think he will Do what is necessary to win. He will need to ratchet the pace down with 400 to go in a way that nuguse can’t cover. If nuguse covers it and is close with 100m to go it will be interesting to see if Jakub can hold him off. I’m positive he is fully aware of yareds fitness and the way he’s Been closing races. I wish we could have gotten a 3k matchup with him and kinkaid in Boston.

Kipsang and Tim both have been vocal that they like controlling races from the front. Neither is particularly good at navigating packs. Tim’s stride is unusual and not ideal for tucking in and shifting like Wightman’s say. Kipsang has a tendency to run far too much extra distance when in a trailing position. You are also missing that Tim was excellent (superior) to Jakob in squeezing races and accelerating from the front. You can look at his splits and see this is the case. That’s evidenced by 2018-2020 where he never lost except for to Manangoi once at the Commonwealth Games. In 2021 even off his game with injuries he beat Jakob a couple times though of course we most remember the Olympics where he had no kick as rounds spelled doom for his hamstrings.

Naturally I know that Tim frontran races 2018-2021 and won them, but then it made sense since he was by far the best 1500 runner in the world. Without injuries he might have made it through 2021 unbeaten as well but that + questionable tactics made it way too easy for Jakob the last 100 of the OG final. He should have continued with frontrunning had he still been the clear #1 in the world, but he’s not. If he takes first and then gets passed he should be able to run as #2/3 in the pack and enjoy drafting advantage. As for Kipsang, not running extra ground should be a learnable skill. If they get their tactics down, the Kenyans with Reynold Cheruiyot as a new lethal addition should be very potent still.

It will take 3:28 or faster for Jakob to beat Nuguse. Any other pace Nuguse will be able to handle.

That time is long gone. Tim is a 1:44.99 man now.

Well, you're talking about a "chicken-and-egg" situation. Tim was the clear no. 1 and then he got hurt. I'm sure in his mind, he can be the no. 1 again and shouldn't defer to Jakob to lead everything especially if trying to draft isn't ideal for him (it historically has not been). I'd argue he also was better at the frontrunning tactic than Jakob for a couple of reasons:

One, he used to be unafraid to get out and run almost too fast (26/54) for his first lap. We saw sometimes in Monaco/Doha that due to his speed that a very quick opener didn't used to bother him and in fact scared off the field (and Jakob). That can matter in a championship race or loaded DL race where traffic is an issue. You saw last year in the 1500 final Jakob had to work through the pack and run extra distance before getting to the front to pass Kipsang. I can't imagine that helped his finish. Prime Tim could just go straight to the front.

Two, Tim got really good at kicking the last 100 in races from the front. Unlike Jakob, who when he has front run has outlasted guys and built up somewhat of a gap (or has gotten beat a couple of times by Tefera, Wightman etc.), it felt like Tim could typically stave off anyone in the last 100 even if they were right on his heels.

Run in May with Tim running the second turn in lane 2 and passing everyone but the top 2 on the following straightaway, getting passed by a number from 500-700 and then having a strong kick finish to get 3rd. A mark he can definitely improve upon if he chooses to, IMO.

That's the way he chose to run. You forget that there is also a possibility to run worse in summer. You are what you are now, not later.

A lot of people here think that just because someone ran a fast 800 some years ago, they are somehow unbeatable in a sprint finish over 1500m.

Centro was not the fastest 800m runner by any means, yet managed to beat everybody in Rio.

The idea is not that Tim has some big kick but is able to command a race with a hot pace from the front like he used to. Last year, he was jogging the last 100 of Kenyan Trials for the African Games because he lacked confidence in his hamstrings. He managed to put together a decent season all things considered, but there’s no question the eyes test indicates he’s in a better place this year. We’ll probably know more after we see the 1500 in LA.

Absolutely, he can be the #1 runner again, but I don't believe he can be such a clear #1 as he was during those years. He can possibly get back to the 3:26-27 shape he's shown but there's a good chance Ingebrigtsen + others will be at a similar level, which renders frontrunning too big of a disadvantage if everyone is firing at 100%. He absolutely is a unique frontrunner, and absorbing that 52,8ish opening in Monaco and still winning in 3:28,4 was stunning. Problem is, he easily was in 3:27 and maybe even 3:26 shape then, but running in that hyperaggressive fashion cost him those seconds. If the competition is at a similar fitness level he will get punished despite his strong last 100, as Tokyo evidenced.

I'm sure Jakob could also go to the front from the start but he has chosen to stay back and run an outside first curve to not risk getting in trouble/boxed and guarantee a front position after 300-400m. Without doubt this is also suboptimal, but as his fitness has been the best for most (all?) DL races post Tokyo the safety has been worth the sacrifice.

1:44,99 is still good, and as others have pointed out, is also improvable. He no doubt has 1,5-2s minimum on Jakob in a 800, and a stronger shift of pace.

Yeah fair enough. I don't really see the others reaching that point where they would be able to go by him in a well-executed race besides maybe Yared, who obviously has flashed he might have a very high ceiling. Throw Reynold Cheruiyot in that category as well. I think we've seen around the best of Kerr/Wightman, which is to say very good but I'm dubious about running under 3:28. Kipsang to me is quite good, but will not progress to a 1:43/3:27 guy. Katir is a bit of an unknown but he may go back to the 5,000 and seems like an inferior version of Jakob (similar training philosophy, 3K best event, lacks a big kick) in most respects.

Jakob had a month of troubles with a cold in January (and into february), but after that great training period. I cant see why he should not be improved from last year. That is also what Filip Ingebrigtsen said in an norwegian podcast recently.
And as someone who follows norwegian athletics close - any rumors of Jakob going for a world record in the start of the season is just crap. never seen anybody anywhere talking about this.

I'm American and I'll never understand the American obsession with closers. It's a great way to lose at the horse track and everywhere else.

At highest level speed dictates. It's beyond hilarious that this forum now doubts a prodigy frontrunner like Athing Mu while salivating over a closer like Yared Nuguse.

I think the lack of form of McSweyn changes the complexion of these races - he was by proxy an unofficial pacer and would make any race he was in honest. I think the American is good. He's very good, but unproven against the likes of Jakob. Jakob is proven against the likes of 'everybody else'. It should though be a great race. And bye the bye, hopefully Hoare can get closer to breaking 3:30.

TH, you make the same mistake as many other posters on these boards:

You judge Jakob as if he was a "finished product" already years ago ; here in Doha 2019 where Jakob was just turned 19. It would be similar to judging Colin Sahlman´s entire career upon his performances at the moment.

Jakob is a MUCH stronger and faster runner today where he possibly is close to peaking physically. If Jakob has been in Tokyo 2021 shape in Doha in 2019 he would possibly have beaten Tim. Jakob ran almost a second faster in Tokyo than Tim did in Doha. And Jakob didn´t have as fast a start in Tokyo as Tim had in Doha.

The last year where Tim was able to hold off Jakob in every race was in 2020 where he narrowly beat him in Lausanne and Monaco .

And as stated before: I doubt Tim will come back to his 2018-2020 shape.

And it would perhaps not even be enough to beat Jakob if it true that Jakob has improved from last year (as Filip reportedly has stated recently).

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Unless some of the toprunners of recent years improve significantly I think the only ones with potential to beat Jakob at the moment are Nuguse and Reynold K. Cheruiyot

During the steeplerace the crowd is amazing, like European soccer fans! A must watch!

That's why the saved the best for last, for the home crowd anyway.

It's a smart move to ensure that the stadium remains full till the end, since the home-favorite El Bakkali is running in it.