will a woman ever break the 4 minute mile?

whutwhut wrote:

MattHatter wrote:

right now the record is 4:12 set in 2019. the fact that it hasn't budged in 4 years is not very encouraging.

to be fair, it's not a record thats chased often.

- Tsegay (blew up massively, but) had a great run during indoors. finished in 4:16, but went out in 61.1 & 2:07. Was interesting to at least someone try that kind of pace from the gun.
- I think someone mentions it later in the thread, but Faith ran a 3:50 last year (which if memory serves correct looked like a 3:48/49 but the clock kept going), and I think could definitely improve on her 2:29/1000m from 2020
- Sifan hasnt had a crack since running 3:53 & 4:14 in summer 2021. Not a million miles away, but her focus has since obviously been elsewhere

Head to head Tsegay vs Faith, I think at any given race Diamond League or World Champs, you've got the potential for a massive WR if they're in 3:50 shape, at that point it's all about the $ to get them there etc

As for the sub4, I asked Sifan Hassan's Coach Tim Rowberry about this [will a woman ever run sub 4 in our lifetime?] after Hassan's 4:14, he said:

"I want to say yes. If we see more than one athlete break Dibaba's record then it might be closer than we think.. still absolutely insane and still having mixed feelings about pacing lights of [if] that would be involved."

"*Dibaba's 1500 record or in other words going sub-3:50"

Wjat what wrote:

xzcvzcvx wrote:

Yes. First, the 4:12 mile record is greatly inferior to the 3:50 1500m record, so you can already see that someone has run about 4:08.4 (1.08x conversion) and so it would require an 8.5 second drop to do it. That is doable. The women's 800m record is 1:53.28, and the future sub-4 woman would likely be more of a 1:54 athlete, so it would be very challenging, but we see Jakob run 3:46 (1:53 880y) off of a 1:46-47 800 pr, so a 6-7 second slowdown from 800 to 880(in a mile) is possible.

Second, the physiological advantages that men have can be gained to some degree by women in various ways, both natural and unnatural, without any new inventions or training techniques. You might have a woman on the high side of the T-limits required to do this, and of course doping was very likely not only in the women's 800m record but also the 1500m record.

Third, sub-3:50 could happen this year with Faith Kipyegon with her perfect form.

You’re ignoring that no woman has run 3:50 clean. This is about clean athletes

est un autre wrote:

I agree there is some extra grounds for suspicions (the two 1,53s comming from east-europe in the 70 / 80s). But we don’t know for sure. However -my gutfeeling tells me that the womens w-recs in the 800m, 1500 and mile are weak (compared to the 400m and the development in 5, 10, half- and full marathon). Ofcourse my logic too tells me 12 sek is a lot to shave in the mile. But I also think too much logic here is wrong -we must consider experience and how the world realy is, and have been, to balance our «stupid» logic..

My experience tells me that events with little development for decades (f.eks womens 800m, 1500 and mile) could all of a sudden take huge steps (we know this from mens track events, and both genders long runs). So a 3,44 1500m, or a 1,50 800m, or a sub 4 mile wouldn’t surprise me at all! (Clean!)
I have no respect for womens 800m w-rec (I ran easely faster my self as a teenager, with very little training, an almost no talent for the distance, and yes -I know I am a male, but the 400m rec and even the 5000m womens rec is a whole other ballgame in my eyes, despite me having my talent in the 5000m). And I feel exactly the same for the 1500m and mile -undeveloped.. But maybee that’s just me -and experience shows that even «strong» w-recs can be shaved off a lot (mens 100 and 200m around 2010, mens 1500m and mile- who would have thought El Guerrouj, Lagat, Ngeny and others could do 3,26 then the brilliant Coe and Ovett tried to outsmart 3,32, and everything I have said about the long runs before. And even the two americans all of a sudden bettering Beamons 8,90 in the long jump… And Warholm, Benjamin and De Santos in 400mh, and the women here..)

I think women inhibits fare more ressources than we think, also fysiologically…

MatthewXCountry wrote:

est un autre wrote:

I agree there is some extra grounds for suspicions (the two 1,53s comming from east-europe in the 70 / 80s). But we don’t know for sure. However -my gutfeeling tells me that the womens w-recs in the 800m, 1500 and mile are weak (compared to the 400m and the development in 5, 10, half- and full marathon). Ofcourse my logic too tells me 12 sek is a lot to shave in the mile. But I also think too much logic here is wrong -we must consider experience and how the world realy is, and have been, to balance our «stupid» logic..

My experience tells me that events with little development for decades (f.eks womens 800m, 1500 and mile) could all of a sudden take huge steps (we know this from mens track events, and both genders long runs). So a 3,44 1500m, or a 1,50 800m, or a sub 4 mile wouldn’t surprise me at all! (Clean!)
I have no respect for womens 800m w-rec (I ran easely faster my self as a teenager, with very little training, an almost no talent for the distance, and yes -I know I am a male, but the 400m rec and even the 5000m womens rec is a whole other ballgame in my eyes, despite me having my talent in the 5000m). And I feel exactly the same for the 1500m and mile -undeveloped.. But maybee that’s just me -and experience shows that even «strong» w-recs can be shaved off a lot (mens 100 and 200m around 2010, mens 1500m and mile- who would have thought El Guerrouj, Lagat, Ngeny and others could do 3,26 then the brilliant Coe and Ovett tried to outsmart 3,32, and everything I have said about the long runs before. And even the two americans all of a sudden bettering Beamons 8,90 in the long jump… And Warholm, Benjamin and De Santos in 400mh, and the women here..)

I think women inhibits fare more ressources than we think, also fysiologically…

And as several have said in this thread, its really only 8 secsonds not 12 seconds (multiple women have ran 4:08 equivalents). No question Kipyegon can run a 4:07 - 4:08 right now in the right conditions.

MatthewXCountry wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

So much meaningless speculation. The human body is not a neat mathematical table. If beating 4.12 was so easy it would have been done long ago. The record is also held by a 3.51 1500 runner. And they are all doping at that level, so they can't get much faster.

The women had run a 2:14 marathon and a 29 min 10k, and you would have said the same thing about the half marathon ...

"The human body is not a neat mathematical table. If beating 64 was so easy it would have been done long ago"

Then Gidey absolutely destroys it going 62:52, as the tables predicted that record was soft and ripe for the taking.

Tables are meaningful, especially for such similar distances. Sure no woman has ran 4:12, but also how many times is a womens outdoor mile run, maybe one per 100 1500m races, probably not even? So many events with mens miles don't even have a womens mile run. There are just so few shots for women to run a competitive mile.

For you to think a 3:50 and a 4:12 are even remotely equivalent is wild.

itcyo wrote:

MatthewXCountry wrote:

The women had run a 2:14 marathon and a 29 min 10k, and you would have said the same thing about the half marathon ...

"The human body is not a neat mathematical table. If beating 64 was so easy it would have been done long ago"

Then Gidey absolutely destroys it going 62:52, as the tables predicted that record was soft and ripe for the taking.

Tables are meaningful, especially for such similar distances. Sure no woman has ran 4:12, but also how many times is a womens outdoor mile run, maybe one per 100 1500m races, probably not even? So many events with mens miles don't even have a womens mile run. There are just so few shots for women to run a competitive mile.

For you to think a 3:50 and a 4:12 are even remotely equivalent is wild.

He has a problem with numbers. We have seen it in other threads over the years.

And when confronted with his ignorance, like your post did, he will just state that tables are meaningless, and that those times were achieved by dopers.

Notice that his only "evidence" of athletes being dopers is that they run fast.

MatthewXCountry wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

So much meaningless speculation. The human body is not a neat mathematical table. If beating 4.12 was so easy it would have been done long ago. The record is also held by a 3.51 1500 runner. And they are all doping at that level, so they can't get much faster.

The women had run a 2:14 marathon and a 29 min 10k, and you would have said the same thing about the half marathon ...

"The human body is not a neat mathematical table. If beating 64 was so easy it would have been done long ago"

Then Gidey absolutely destroys it going 62:52, as the tables predicted that record was soft and ripe for the taking.

Tables are meaningful, especially for such similar distances. Sure no woman has ran 4:12, but also how many times is a womens outdoor mile run, maybe one per 100 1500m races, probably not even? So many events with mens miles don't even have a womens mile run. There are just so few shots for women to run a competitive mile.

For you to think a 3:50 and a 4:12 are even remotely equivalent is wild.