How impressive is a sub 15 5k at age 40?

That was not just a local one-off. It was a USATF masters championship. I think there were three American records set that day in other age groups.

Definitely a good field and a fast day (although not a downhill course or anything). But USATF championships aren't all they are cracked up to be. I think there are 15+ road "championship" events this year. Regardless, that was pretty much a local field at the top. Two dudes in the top 10 from Colorado, everyone else from Northern California. Not necessarily what you think of when you hear "national championship."

Survivorship bias...

Even a guy under 20 and a girl under 22 is well above baseline.

There may be about a dozen masters guys in the US who can break 15 on the roads in a given year. If there were some sort of financial incentive--prize money, sponsorships, or even cross-country travel budgets to go to races you'd probably see more. In addition, a dozen or fewer able to run 90% or more for any given age group above age 45.

Club XC has the deepest field of the year, they ran something like 5.95 or 6.0 miles under bad weather but a perfectly flat loop.
1 Sergio Reyes 28:55 (92.16%)
2 Joshua McAdams 29:05
3. Malcolm Richards 29:10
4 Benjamin Bruce 29:18
5 Jesse Davis 29:27 (89.66%)

You are acting like sub 15 at 40 is dime a dozen and that hundreds of individuals at any age group run 90% or more. That's not the reality.

There are quite a few Gen X men and women in Cbus I know, in the local elite clubs, that are 40-50 and are super-fast (relative to general pop).

One woman is 45 and has run 27 marathons, and runs a 3:05. Many women in the 2:55-3:10 bracket in that group.

The men are even faster yet--guys 40 and up running 2:40-3:05 easily. Some are in the low 2:30s.

Good post!

Earlier in the thread I literally said I think the number is around 20, maybe more (but not like, hundreds more). You say it's around 12. I don't see the big dispute. Arguing that there might be 20-40 sub-15:00 American master's runners is not saying it's "a dime a dozen."

The only thing I strongly disagree with in this thread is the idea that there are zero, one, or two American master's runners who can break 15, which is what that crappy master's ranking website would have indicated and what some others in the thread have said.

Been on this site since the beginning and this may be the dumbest set of posts I’ve ever read, which is saying a lot.

There are 10.6 million men between the ages of 40 and 45 in America.

statista.com

Population of the U.S. by sex and age 2021 | Statista

The estimated population of the U.S.

Open link

Even the most optimistic reading of every single let’s run knucklehead who’s posted here agrees that at most, there are 200 men over 40 in America, who can run sub 15. Break out your calculators boys and girls. That’s 0.0000187%. The original post asked if it was rare. Yes, original poster, it’s extremely rare but then again any village idiot who spent two minutes running would know that. Just ask your dad‘s friends if they can run a quarter. Then see if they could do it in 71 seconds without having a heart attack and then ask them if they could keep doing that 11 more times. A+ for getting an A+ performance from the trolls.

Frankly, sub 15 at 40/41 age isn't that impressive to me. Because I always known true elite runners can run that in that their sleep if they kept training. And Lagat has completely proven that. You don't think Dathan could have run sub 15 if he didn't retire? I wouldn't be surprised if he can run that right now. But once you get past 45 and close to 50, sub 15 becomes more impressive. It's more of nobody cares at certain point because all the real fast runners stopped competing. It's an old timers day at baseball game.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s still a great time. However, it’s similar to a ~28 year old (prime physical fitness) running 14:30, give or take a few seconds.

What makes it impressive is that most people have a family and job then, so they can’t dedicate themselves to training.

- the truth.

You are correct that Bernard Lagat is an exceptional athlete and his ability to run a sub-15 minute 5k is a testament to his elite level of fitness, but his example may not necessarily be representative of the general population of 40-year-old men.

According to all of the race data I’ve researched and statistics, breaking 15 minutes in the 5k is an elite-level performance and requires a high level of training and dedication, regardless of age.
The number of non-famous or full-time runners who are able to run a sub-15 minute 5k at age 40 is relatively low. However, there are exceptions and outliers who are able to achieve this level of performance with the right training and dedication and maybe a divorce. The number of runners who can do this at age 45 is likely even lower. It is safe to say that only a small percentage of runners, regardless of age break 15.

14:30 at 28 is not even close to 15 at 40. I would say 16 at 40 might be 14:30 at 25.

A lot of those years Carlsbad had masters prize money of $1k for the winner. People come out of the woodwork for money and as noted, several were cheating. Yet still many years produced zero sub 15. High mark of 5? For $1k? MANY OT qualifiers including socalcush (a 3:56 miler).

Lagat, Bekele? They were World Champions and had ridiculously long careers. Not a valid comparison to masters runners.

Maybe it is not as rare as a sub 4 HS mile, but it isn't that far off. It is certainly less than the number of sub 4 runners each year.

Actually, my view is LetsRun posters are extremely out of touch with the basics of mathematics, and what 1% really is. ‘Almost never happens, so must be 1%’. 1% is one of out 100, letsrun posters!