European Indoors Championship Day 2 Official Thread

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

LarsL11 wrote:

Yes, agreed. I'm not saying Nuguse won't beat Jakob. Just that people can't just say he finished in xx:xx and then there were none. Firstly it doesn't matter who he beats as long as it isn't Wightman or Ingebrigtsen as no one has been better than them when it counts (and that surely isn't in february). Secondly, there is no use for a nice kick if you never are there to use it. Two fell in this final. Several in the olympic final had no kick left after running semis etc. It’s a lot more complex than what people make it out to be. If kick was everything americans would have won every gold the last years. Statistics shows that kick was something in 2012, everything in 2016. Time will show.

Wightman until last year didn’t have some unimpeachable championship record. And of course he lost to Tim and Hoare in the Commonwealth Games, and Mariano Garcia in the 800 at Europeans. Wightman is very good, but what he mainly showed is how hard it is to beat everybody when you frontrun and are challenged for the lead like Jakob was. Today there was 1 guy who challenged for the lead and it was Neil Gourley at 125 to go. Jakob will be in much better shape outdoors but this wasn’t the challenge he is due to face.

Wise Old Man wrote:

winterbreeze wrote:

That might be true. Although, I doubt this race was any kind of indicator to what Jakob’s kick is like right now. Before the last lap, he was looking up at the big screen as if he was checking where Gorley was. I think he ran just enough to win and is totally saving himself for the 3k.

And on similar note, how else would you expect Jakob to win against guys like Nuguse if their kick is better? Maybe squeeze 1000m at death pace, but idk how that’s much different from leading the race the whole time. Relying on his kick should be a worse tactic imo than leading in a race vs the big kickers.

Jakob at his best is just too strong for his competitors. He just chills until 800 and then just breaks everybody’s body and spirit from 800-1200 and then just finishes up. That’s how it’s going to go this summer in round 3 of the wc. As long as the first 800 is not super slow, and it won’t be, Jakob will win the race in the next 400 and won’t have to fight anybody off in the home stretch. They will all be kicking for 2nd.

Wise Old Man wrote:

John Wesley Harding wrote:

Why should we assume this after last year’s WC final? If we’re talking Ingrebrigtsen vs. the field in Budapest, I’m taking the field.

Ingebrigtsen clearly showed he was the class of the field today, but I think there have been some exaggerations about how easy it was - that he was jogging, that he never left 3rd gear, that it was a walk in the park. Gourley gave him a good run and I’ve little doubt Jakob was working hard on the last lap. Yes, he could have run a faster time, but his strategy was to make it an honest pace that would drop much of the field and sap everyone’s kick more than his own - the fact that he was able to execute his plan without a hitch is impressive enough.

Jakob can lose, but your taking the field? That seems crazy. You don’t give Jakob better than a 50% chance at gold?? To me, Jakob was most definitely not working very hard today. Be nice to have some actual physiologic data. Anyway, for him to win this summer he does need to be in 3:28x shape, but that should be expected of him if healthy. In Eugene he ran 800 to 1200 in 56.24 based on my very quick check. If he runs the same race, but can squeeze that 400 down to 55 and run 3:28 mid, then nobody is going to be able to handle it.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

Wise Old Man wrote:

Jakob can lose, but your taking the field? That seems crazy. You don’t give Jakob better than a 50% chance at gold?? To me, Jakob was most definitely not working very hard today. Be nice to have some actual physiologic data. Anyway, for him to win this summer he does need to be in 3:28x shape, but that should be expected of him if healthy. In Eugene he ran 800 to 1200 in 56.24 based on my very quick check. If he runs the same race, but can squeeze that 400 down to 55 and run 3:28 mid, then nobody is going to be able to handle it.

Especially 6 months out from the WCs, yes I will take the field. I think the odds of Jakob winning appear higher than they are since he is the obvious favorite, but so many things can happen between now and then and in the race itself, variables we might fail to even consider.