Parker Valby wants the 3k title and goes all in

That race displayed Chelangat can race hard, from the gun. ( Valby probably caught her off-guard. Valby probably distributed her effort almost perfectly, and Chelangat was closing in on the last 1k.)

Even if Chelangat subsequently picked up niggle since that race, they learned what training, over what time-frame works best for peaking her.

In answer to your second question, yes, I agree Olemomoi may be the faster of the two over the 3k; thus the reasoning behind the ‘obvious’ strategy I suggested earlier. It would further suggest, then, that Helen will pace-set the 5k for Mercy, for about 2.5k. They will even-split a sub-15:30 race (after altitude conversion.)

Almost every runner is doubling and the few that aren't are in the 3K

No one's going crazy in the 5K cuz they're all doubling

Yep. Hopefully the NCst crew is already hanging out with their old teammates in Flagstaff.

I hadn’t checked the altitude conversion before I posted. 15:07 sea-level fitness is a 69.0 VDOT, and equivalent to a 15:39 at 5,312 ft altitude. I expect, then, the Alabama duo to start clicking off 37-38sec laps not too long after the gun goes off.

Read my poses strategy (which was ‘obvious’ to me), and think some more.

True for the top 3, but Mazza Downie, Venters, Cook, Baran, Stearns, Frentheway etc are only qualified in the 5k. Maybe we need Mazza Downie, Stearns or Venters go for it.

*posed strategy

Mercy will be fine with that, as long as they are clicking off 37-38sec laps.

Guys you're being totally unrealistic of reality

Bottom line is no one wants to do bad and no one wants to burn themselves up and act as a pacer

Best runners are doubling and want to do their best in both races

Sure maybe someone pushes the pace a little but it's not going to be crazy fast and most likely is that the girl who is way better at both distances will easily win

And the fact that she also is the fastest 600 m and 800 m runner by a good chunk of change...

Anyway I think you boys have been watching too many movies lately

Stop posing

I have not seen all of them race all their races but when I have seen I don't know that I have seen any of them assert the lead....I can see a slow first K and then someone reacts to try to speed it up.

You obviously cannot understand the straight-forward, easy (for most) to understand, strategy which I expect Alabama to bring to these races. Of course, whether it actually plays out hinges on whether Chelangat is back to that fitness she displayed at the cross-country SECs.

But if Chelangat is in peak fitness, then it makes sense for her to go all-in to try and get the elusive Indoor Title. Alabama is not playing to get a team Championship here. This is Chelangat’s last shot at Indoors. It behooves her in no way, nor her teammate Olemomoi (for the 3k) to just sit back in a slowish race, and try and grab 2nd. There is no point in that, when pressing hard soon after the gun will likely get her at least 2nd place.

But you miss the obvious point that she's not good enough to just take off from the gun and run real hard

If she does that she won't even get top five

There's a reason all these races are tactical because people realize it's their best chance to do good

No one's going to burn themselves up

It'll be fairly slow and tactical and maybe the last 2K someone starts pushing hard

Your thought process doesn't take into account that you waste way more energy leading the race and you just act as a pacer

Obviously, you are clueless regarding the racing capabilities of Mercy Chelangat. And your reading comprehension skills are poor.

Go watch the SEC cross-country race to see whether Chelangat can run a hard, fast even-pace race.

I expect Olemomoi to help Mercy out with pace-setting in the beginning of the 5k race, and she’ll then conserve energy for the 3k, while Chelangat takes over and races for the barn.

I too find this odd....they both ran 15:18 at BU which gives them the #2 and 3 times this year, no?

The main reason Chelangat raced that way at SEC XC is because Valby took off and Chelangat went after her. She wasn't leading that race at all, Valby was. So, SEC XC doesn't tell us much about Chelangat desiring to lead from the gun.

Maybe that is her best strategy against Tuohy but I am not so sure.

All right guys we'll see what happens!

So your theory is that there'll be an orchestrated attempt to lay down a fast pace from the gun by the Alabama runners

And mercy will push the pace the whole race and that'll be successful for her to either get first or second

Well I say you guys are out to lunch and have no realistic understanding of the way a championship race will play out

Show me any NCAA race in history that played out like that and how often that happened in the history of indoor or outdoor track NCAA races

Anyway I say it'll be like every other NCAA race they'll run as a big pack for the first couple of K and then the better runners will start pushing the pace

Tuohy Will easily I'll kick the competition as she is at least 20 seconds faster at 5K at her best, 20 seconds faster at 3K then almost any other runner, and about 7 or 8 seconds faster at the mile

And not to mention she can close in 600m. Probably about 3 or 4 seconds faster than any other runner in the 5K

All right guys we'll see which is an accurate view of reality and which is fantasyland

(a) She desired to WIN the race, in the best manner possible;

(b) she demonstrated she can run hard almost immediately from the gun, hold pace, and then speed up even a bit further at the end of race.

It is a Alabama’s QED strategy for this meet; a 1-2 punch.