California HS XC 2023 CIF

You mean graduated? Hawkins was a senior last year

Anyone else on their girls team transferring out?

Ive been told Tiffany Sax is leaving. Not sure where she is going.

Does that mean that her incoming sophomore brother Brayton is leaving too?
He would have made the Newbury Park sophomore class really good.

Also, incoming freshman Adrian Cantu (Aaron’s brother) is going to West Ranch while many thought that he was going to Newbury Park like his brother.

ca.milesplit.com

West Ranch (SS) - Roster

Open link

The reason why NP girls team is ranked this high is because Tiffany Sax is still included in this. Meylan didn’t know that she was leaving, as did most people.
Without her, they should not be ranked nationally.
Also Natarajan had a great XC season last year but didn’t do track, so it’s hard to tell what kind of shape she is in now.
I think Brotcke will be higher up on the team than these rankings show. I think she is at least #2 without Hawkins and Sax.

Ventura

CA national boys TR rankings
http://tullyrunners.com/XC2023/PreSeasonNatBoys2023.htm
5- Ventura
20- San Clemente
22- Trabuco Hills
29- Great Oak
31- Cathedral

Regional rankings
California
Ventura (SS) CA 75 California
San Clemente (SS) CA 130 California
Trabuco Hills (SS) CA 130 California
Great Oak (SS) CA 160 California
Cathedral (SS) CA 160 California
Dana Hills (SS) CA 165 California
Mira Costa (SS) CA 170 California
Buchanan (CS) CA 175 California
Newbury Park (SS) CA 180 California
Clovis East (CS) CA 190 California
Yosemite (CS) CA 190 California
Crystal Spr Uplands (CC) CA 190 California
St. Francis (SS) CA 200 California

Surprised that Oakdale isn’t even in the regional rankings.

RIP Newbury Park.

What if any is the sit out period? I thought it was a year, no?

Well, if she moved (changed residence area), she can start running varsity right away.

If not, she has to sit out until the end of the sit-out period. I think she would be able to start running varsity at the end of October

Actually the beginning of October. I remember last year, Newbury Park had a transfer Brandon Guevara who had to sit out for a while. And then he was originally listed in the NP varsity lineup at the Clovis invite.

JSerra Catholic CA got 3 new transfers:
Chiara Bonomi - from Cathedral Catholic CA
Chloe Elbaz - from Xavier College Prep CA
Sophie Polay - 11 - from Santa Margarita CA

Based on Tullyrunners rankings, Buchanan, JSerra and Ventura are the top 3 girls teams and none of them are looking to have any seniors scoring this year, so next year these 3 teams will be very good on a national scale

I assume the rankings are based on the Cal merge, which decides NXN entries, as were my rankings, as described in the thread about using speed ratings and track times to predict Cal merge scores. Mine differ a little, probably because my rankings weight the track season (the 3200m times) just as heavy as the XC speed ratings. 1600m times can help, but the formula only allows for a limited amount of improvement because 1600m times in isolation are not a great predictor of XC.

My projected merge scores were:

Ventura 223.7
San Clemente 291.7
Trabuco Hills 330.8
Great Oak 355.6
Mira Costa 505.5
Oakdale 528.3
Dana Hills 547.6
Buchanan 589.6
Newbury Park 611.5
Clovis East 616.9
Cathedral 714.7
Yosemite 743.2
Crystal Springs Uplands 799.7
Santa Barbara 844.2
Granada 877.6
Millikan 888
St Francis 896.1

Many teams will lower their projected score as the XC season goes along because they will have higher speed ratings. So note the difference, I did not predict the entire merge with all the runners, I simply mapped their best speed rating (track or XC) to an approximate Cal merge placement. So in theory, all the teams could see their projected team scores lower during the year. It is not the case that one going down causes another to go up, since it is not a simulated race with all the runners.

Not factoring track at all. The ranking are going to change a lot based on what track season tells us.

Wow Cathedral boys team has a national ranking without including 9:49 transfer Fabila.

Hardly worth the bother to keep the Newbury Park girls team in the national rankings after the departure of Sax

Does this include the Sax transfer?

Oops my bad, you were ranking boys.