NXN At-large predictions 2022?

Carmel is absolutely a good team but Jesuit (Portland) is almost undisputedly better. 28 points behind Jesuit>25 points behind Carmel imho

Not to mention Rocky Mountain (and 3 other schools) crushed Great Oak at Bob Firman.
absolutely garbage that RM isn’t going.

So Great Oak should be penalized for peaking at the right time?

Most of you have no idea how the regions were set up and how they work... it ain't broke don't fix it.

No. He is saying that the fact that Rocky Mountain beat Great Oak checks a box for what the committee is looking for when they select an at large (beating an eventual autoqualifier). And Rocky Mountain only lost to a top 5 team in the nation by 28 points

I don't think so. Carmel lost to Jesuit LA by 9 points who are clearly better than JLO. If Carmel had been at full strength at Region it would've been Carmel that went and not DGN.

Also Tullyrunners shows DGN with 4 runners within seconds of RM's 3rd, all 5 ahead of RM's 4th and all 7 ahead of RM's 5th. I'll bet that's what sunk RM, over a minute split between their 1 and 5 and 48 seconds between their 1 and 4. DGN had 4 within 10 seconds and 5 within 23 seconds.

Maybe RM got snubbed but it wasn't because of DGN, who actually raced and beat Hinsdale Central, who won the Region and deserved their bid.

DGN beat a top 5 team and Region winner in Hinsdale. They also beat Carmel who was ranked top 5 going into Regional.

seriously??? JTFC!

Do you understand how cross country is scored?? You can't compare the scores like that from two completely different meets. The midwest region was a much deeper race with more quality teams in it than the northwest. This causes the scores for all teams to be higher and gaps to be larger.

Carmel at Niketown was different than Carmel at NXR.

Carmel was missing their #3 at NXR

That's been acknowledged several times. Even with that #3 taking as high as 10th place which is pretty generous Carmel finishes in 3rd with 155 points, HC still wins with 126, Plainfield still 2nd with 150, DGN would've been 4th with 183...or 28 points behind a full strength Carmel that finished 9 points behind Jesuit La. at Nike.

The region was very tough, times were the fastest in meet history throughout the field and there were several highly ranked teams in there. Race day excuses don't matter. If you were missing a guy it's the same as having a non-performance from a guy who ran; region strength made you pay for it.

I took umbrage that the NW was perceived as being the stronger region. No proof of that.

So what should be the new rule?

Base the number of autoqualifiers in each region based on previous year results?

Yea, JSerra has been very good all season

Actually I think it had more to do with when they snubbed Saratoga because they finished 3rd at Federations back when everyone ran them. IIRC Saratoga had the fastest average of the despite the third and had held out a runner due to short term illness. To add to the perceived injustice I believe they selected Colts Neck, NJ a team Saratoga had beaten earlier in the season. FM and Hilton went 1-2 at NTN supporting the contention that Nike left a likely podium team home. The next year NY had their own region and FM and Saratoga went 1-3.

In 2019 NW girls got 2 at larges. The team that got the second at large finished near the bottom of NXN

Also Grapevine got an at large and they got last

The “they” you refer is a group of entirely different group runners who graduated from high school by 2021. Those earlier results have no direct bearing on the current team. Just saying…

Did anyone have Campolindo girls making it? That seems like an odd choice, guess they did so well at states that they had to take them as an at large? I've never heard of them before, have they ever been to NXN? Beating JSerra helped a lot I bet, especially with FM not fielding a full team at NXR NY.

Campolindo didn’t beat any autoqualifiers. I wonder how it would have turned out if there was NXR CA where all top CA teams faced each other. There was one last year but it was useless since there was no NXN

Oakdale would have crushed all NY teams

Oakdale would have gotten third in the merge for ca if they had a better #5