Only the USA, Kenya and Ethiopia have sufficiently significant numbers of athletes in the testing pool. Most other countries have less than five. So excuse us if we're not flabbergasted at cops catching more criminals in the most targeted neighbourhoods.
From that list, Kenya has about 4 x as many in the testing pool as GB, and about 2/3 of that of the USA.
There have now been over 200 Kenyans busted since 2004, and 25 so far this year alone. In GB the figure is maybe less than 10, and all either sprinters or throwers. I don't know what the figure is for the USA, but there too it's almost all sprinters and throwers.
Just because an athlete is in the testing pool, doesn't mean they get tested equally. Galen Rupp was tested over 20 times in one year. Kenyan Olympic qualifiers were left off the team because they hadn't been tested 3 times.
If you took out the 18 months or so of the lockdowns, then the accelerating rate of Kenyan busts would look almost exponential over the last 10 years. I don't think all the bad apples have been caught yet.
Well, you can of course arbitrarily make up any number. 😁
Who is to say that he "could likely" run 1:57 or 1:59 doped? Where did you get that number from?
Salazar for example is on record with doping gives you 2 minutes in the marathon. Schumacher said that EPO alone gives you 1 minutes over 10,000 m, hence my estimate of 2 - 4 minutes in a marathon.
Of course Salazar and Schumacher can arbitrarily make up any number.
There is no real data for the marathon.
Without real data, these are just uninformed beliefs.
The bottom line is there is no loss for Kenyans for cheating. All they did was waste a ton of time and effort training. They go back to living in their shack. And if they got caught and were able to cash the check, it's still theirs to keep. If they don't cheat, they get nothing from the start and watch other cheaters drive around in BMWs. For Westerners who are sponsored, the loss is great. Look at what happened to Burrito Girl.
But prior to getting caught, she made a couple of hundred thousands per year. So overall probably a win, despite her bad luck of having the AIU come by while glowing.
I counted 13 cases for Morocco in 2019 (20 or 21 for Kenya)
That explain why they listed them in category A in 2020.
3 cases in 2018
1 case in 2020
4 cases in 2021
2 cases recent cases in 2022 (the two tested positive are native 2003/2004 and didn't even enter the senior category), which mean they maybe do tests early now.
In the 27 cases are still active according to this page.
Salazar for example is on record with doping gives you 2 minutes in the marathon. Schumacher said that EPO alone gives you 1 minutes over 10,000 m, hence my estimate of 2 - 4 minutes in a marathon.
Of course Salazar and Schumacher can arbitrarily make up any number.
There is no real data for the marathon.
Without real data, these are just uninformed beliefs.
Estimates by experts in the field are not "uninformed". They have used the data of observation, experience and their own study, not mere guesswork. EPO has been shown to increase endurance; the marathon requires endurance, and so there is no reason to hold that unique amongst endurance events it will not aid marathon competitors. That the degree it does this is appropriate subject for reliable estimation by those who either know the event or how EPO works; what isn't reliable is to say it doesn't have any effect because the exact data isn't available. That is "uninformed".
So Kenya gets banned, testing falls off, no one gets caught, then what? When do they then arbitrarily decide Kenya is ready to be accepted back to the fold? Because all WA, WADA and the AIU recommendations are in place and nothing is systematically lacking. It's just that Kenya has thousands more potential road race winners than most off the world and some of them will think they need chemical help just to stand out from other Kenyan runners.
Notice that relatively few of these banned runners have had the opportunity to make any Kenyan teams at global championships.
What I find particularly disturbing about that AW article isn't them asking event organisers to disinvite Kenyan athletes, but that they, like Coevett, the Brojos and much of the LRC appear to be pushing the idea that 'Kenyaness' itself is the problem. They're essentially suggesting that cheating, deceit and disregard for rules is part of Kenyan nature. They're recommending that individual accountability should be suspended for Kenyans alone and collective punishment be meted out on the basis of nationality.
This is such a dangerous trend in thought that I just can't abide because, in my mind, it mirrors Kanye West's recent anti-semitic rants. I have been a fan of Athletics Weekly for the longest time and remember scrimping lunch money as a child to buy the print copy. Needless to say, that chapter's in the past, now.
Of course Salazar and Schumacher can arbitrarily make up any number.
There is no real data for the marathon.
Without real data, these are just uninformed beliefs.
Estimates by experts in the field are not "uninformed". They have used the data of observation, experience and their own study, not mere guesswork. EPO has been shown to increase endurance; the marathon requires endurance, and so there is no reason to hold that unique amongst endurance events it will not aid marathon competitors. That the degree it does this is appropriate subject for reliable estimation by those who either know the event or how EPO works; what isn't reliable is to say it doesn't have any effect because the exact data isn't available. That is "uninformed".
I'm sure "experts in the field" are informed. The question then becomes, who are the experts qualified to give such informed estimates on elite marathon performance?
The only statement I've seen from any expert in the field of elite marathon performance is that EPO will not help the athletes, African and non-African alike, who train for extended periods at high altitude. This is consistent with scientific research on altitude studies and blood doping.
Unfortunately, most scientists and anti-doping experts, including Schumacher, are simply not experts in the field of elite marathon performance. Simply put, Schumacher has no "data of observation, experience and (his) own study", which renders his estimates pure guesswork.
Similarly Salazar could arguably be considered an "expert in the field" of elite marathon performance, but not back in 1998 or 1999.
His "2-minute estimate" comes from an 1998 article in the New York times, when the marathon record had been stagnant for 10 years. The fastest African (2:06:50), from 1988 (unlikely to be from EPO or blood transfusion) was only 1 minute 23 secs faster than Salazar's 2:08:13 in New York (not a fast course, but 150m short). Indeed, at that time, Salazar attributed this "estimate" to HGH and steroid use in "third world" countries. One month before publication that record was broken by a Brazilian (2:06:05).
Subsequently, in a 1999 presentation to to the Duke University School of Law, he expressed a similar opinion, with no time estimates, this time attributing success in "distance events" to EPO and HGH, in a statement that began with "I believe ...".
These express statements of belief renders it pure guesswork on his part without "data of observation, experience and (his) own study".
Did he gain experience "in the field" later? As an experienced coach, he made no similar statement, "informed" or otherwise. And a lengthy 7 year investigation and prosecution, with 30 witnesses and thousands of pages of evidence, was unable to identify any single doped athlete, unless you want to count Magness, who did not take EPO, nor compete in the marathon.
What I find particularly disturbing about that AW article isn't them asking event organisers to disinvite Kenyan athletes, but that they, like Coevett, the Brojos and much of the LRC appear to be pushing the idea that 'Kenyaness' itself is the problem. They're essentially suggesting that cheating, deceit and disregard for rules is part of Kenyan nature. They're recommending that individual accountability should be suspended for Kenyans alone and collective punishment be meted out on the basis of nationality.
This is such a dangerous trend in thought that I just can't abide because, in my mind, it mirrors Kanye West's recent anti-semitic rants. I have been a fan of Athletics Weekly for the longest time and remember scrimping lunch money as a child to buy the print copy. Needless to say, that chapter's in the past, now.
Lol, says the poster who regularly displays a pathalogical hatred of the British, and only the other week stated that 'it couldn't happen to a more deserving nation' with regard to a thread titled 'Is the UK finished?'
You have also often called for foreign coaches and managers to be banned from Italy, even if it meant your beloved Canova being forced to leave, so where is the difference in that? You've even claimed that there were too many foreigners in Kenya in general.
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